On the eve of the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship opener: the Daytona 500, fans still wonder about the direction the sport is headed. Last year’s Chase for the Cup Championship, while exiting, took a lot of the authenticy and even legitimacy of the Sprint Cup Championship. We are now far removed from the days where a driver had to be good for 36 straight weeks in order to win a title. We’re even now past the idea of a driver putting together a hot ten weeks, similar to most major league playoff systems, and winning a championship. Now you just have to make it to the end by any means necessary and you can be champion if you outlast three other drivers in one race. I may sound pretty negative on this, but I don’t think the most recent way to decide the Sprint Cup Champion is a bad thing. In fact, the only issue I really have with it is the fact that the title is decided by one race at the end. Three would suffice for me. I understand why it’s like that though, ever since 2011 NASCAR looked to replicate the Tony Stewart vs. Carl Edwards battle for the title. That was the year Stewart barely made the Chase, won five of the ten Chase races and won a points tie with Edwards because of his five wins against Edwards one. Despite Stewart’s lackluster regular season, I was perfectly fine with this. Stewart was good when it mattered over a decent sample size. I would also change the non-winners getting in. I wouldn’t allow any non-winners unless they were the regular season points champion. Win a race if you want to be the champion.

 I don’t know if NASCAR liked the Kevin Harvick vs. Ryan Newman battle from last year…but I bet they are happy Harvick won. Newman of course had merely four top 5s and 0 wins but snuck into the final based off of not making any mistakes and rarely finishing worse than 20^th. He finished 2^nd at Homestead and could have won the title if Harvick had any issue. It would have the worst champion in the history of the Sprint Cup title as well. Would have been rectified with my win or you’re not in rule.

Anyway, let’s ask 10 pressing questions about the 2015 NASCAR season.

Who’s winning the title?

Could be anyone under this format really. I think Jeff Gordon is a sentimental favorite due to his retirement announcement. But he’s a legit title contender as well and might have gotten there if he didn’t screw up after Brad Keselowski messed up his tire at Texas making a “crazy move”. It’s forgotten that Gordon actually ruined his own chances at winning the title last year by not getting out of pit road in time after the incident with Keselowski which cost him a lap. Gordon ultimately lost to Ryan Newman by one point…a point he surely could have made up at the end of Texas.

Anyway, I like keeping Harvick in the final four. I remember laughing when I saw Harvick being listed as the favorite by numerous betting sites before the Chase. Harvick responded with three wins (including the last two races to win the title), six top 5s and nine top 15s. I would not rule out Harvick. I also will include Jimmie Johnson. Johnson had the first “bad” season for him (11^th in the standings despite 4 wins, and 20 top 10s…which amazingly tied a career low for him). Yeah, JJ has dominated the Chase races for practically a decade now. It’s still smart money to think he’ll be in the end. I’m not going to pick Gordon. He didn’t get in despite a great season last year. For the other two spots I’ll go with Brad Keselowski, who’s aggressiveness can lead to wins late, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. You may scoff at my adding Junior, but he’s at the top of his game and even won the Martinsville race after he was eliminated. A four win season last year proves he’s ready to go. He might just win the Daytona 500 this year. Also consider when calculating the 2013 Championship with 2014 rules, Dale Jr. actually wins the title in that format (with no wins at that).

I would ultimately pick Johnson to bring home title #7.

What about Tony Stewart?

Tony Stewart is a very interesting dark horse for the Championship considering he’s been known for his hot streaks at the end of the season (see 2011). Stewart didn’t race a full 2013 due to injury, and then the Kevin Ward tragedy ruined any chance Stewart was going to make a late season surge. Has he put that behind him? His he 100% healthy? Can he still handle being a car owner and an elite level NASCAR driver? I don’t know, but if you can get really good odds, I wouldn’t count Tony Stewart out.

What will happen with Kurt and Kyle Busch?

I think we may finally be at the point of Kurt Busch’s top level NASCAR career being over. He’s only been employed due to his talent (which won a title in 2004). But I mean it was questionable that he was going to be picked up by anyone during his previous incidents…and now we are throwing domestic violence on top of that. Domestic violence is unfortunately a hot topic as top tier athletes in other sports (Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice) have had notably incidents and didn’t play their respective seasons. I think at minimum we’ll see Kurt Busch at that level.

Kyle’s situation is a shame but we still need more information. He was injured in the Xfinity series opener at Daytona today and will miss the 500. But if he can get back on track and win one race he can still get in the Chase, which isn’t far-fetched at all (Denny Hamlin did this last year and made the final four). I think it’s a good sign that Kyle is scaling back his non-Sprint Cup obligations. He’s one of the most talented drivers in the sport and just needs to focus. He’s only 29 and can still be the future of Sprint Cup if he sets his mind to it.

Who is someone not named Kyle Larson or Tony Stewart who makes the Chase this year that didn’t last year?

Stewart isn’t a fair answer and Larson would be the obvious answer, so let’s ignore those two. I think Jamie McMurray has the best chance. Both Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr. both haven’t gotten past the 2013 Richmond incident, in Bowyer’s case losing support and in Truex’s case losing his whole ride and I don’t like either here. Austin Dillon has a chance so we’ll see. I pick McMurray because he is one of the best superspeedway guys and could easily win a Daytona or Talladega to get in.

Which driver takes a big step back this season?

For sure it’s Ryan Newman. Before last season Newman never even finished in the top 5 in the standings. Zero wins, five top 5s and 16 top 10s is fringe top 10 in the standings stats…and most of the time even worse. I don’t know if he’ll drop out completely though if he keeps up the avoidance of bad finishes.

Is this the year of Danica?

No…but don’t be surprise if she finally strings something decent together. I say she contends for a top 20 standings spot. Unless she keeps getting into arguments with guys like Hamlin.

Will NASCAR keep qualifying like this?

Probably. Old qualifying was an absolute bore to watch and at least this provides excitement. They had to change some of the rules at Daytona though and I assume they’ll apply at Talladega too after the embarrassing situation that cost Ricky Stenhouse Jr. a starting spot last year.

Will Roush Racing make a comeback?

Roush Racing is no longer one of the elite teams in NASCAR and a big reason why Carl Edwards bolted for the crazily stacked Gibbs (I might want to re-do my top 4). Greg Biffle will always be a threat to win a race or two. Hopefully Stenhouse improves from a massively disappointing 2014 season. Trevor Bayne shoots for Rookie of the Year honors this season and of course won the Daytona 500 in one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history in 2011. Does that mean he’ll win another one? Well…probably not. Best bet is on Biffle having a good season for Roush to be relevant here.

Gibbs is stacked…so why don’t you have any of them in your final four?

One of the big things about NASCAR is that roster wise, this is the probably the most competitive the Sprint Cup Series has ever been. It’s been like this for quite a while now (a big reason why Jimmie Johnson’s six titles in eight years is probably way more impressive than anything Dale Earnhardt or Richard Petty has done). Gibbs has 03 champ Matt Kenseth, Edwards (runner up in ’08 and ’11), Hamlin (runner up in ’10) and Kyle Busch (29 career wins, 4^th in 2013). I haven’t even mentioned some top guys from other teams like Joey Logano (made the final four last year). Any of these guys could win the championship in addition to Stewart, Gordon and the four I mentioned in question #1. That’s 11 guys right there. It’s crazy.

Defining story of the season?

I think we’ll see Jeff Gordon put together one hell of a season for his swan song. It’s amazing that Gordon won four Cups in his first nine years then was never that good again. Sure he could have won in 2004, 2007 and last year, but he didn’t. It’s easy to forget just how dominant Gordon was in the 90s. From the 1995 season (his first title season) through the 2001 season (his last) he won 56 races. That’s more than legends such as Rusty Wallace throughout their whole career. He won 33 times in 1996, 1997 and 1998, a three season span. His dominance was insane. He won the first Brickyard, multiple Daytona 500s and was always a very good driver at his worst. He’s a big reason NASCAR reached the popularity levels it did in the 90s and early 2000s. I don’t think he’ll get to 100 (although I wouldn’t completely rule out an 8 win season from him), but three wins, and ending up in the 5^th-8^th spot of the championship wouldn’t be out of the question. And if Kasey Kahne falls apart this season…don’t be surprised to see Hendrick begging Gordon for one last run in 2016.