Category Archives: Football

Football

RDT’s 2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions!

Well we went 2-2 last week. Cinnicinate destructed and it looks like I underestimated Green Bay (or overestimated Kirk Cousins). Still, all the road teams winning last week was a bit crazy.

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

As good as the Chiefs have been I don’t see them winning this one.

If you want to talk yourself into Kansas City, you need to think the Patriots aren’t as good as they seemed (they faltered a bit down the stretch), Gronk’s injuries are serious (he was just in the hospital), the return of Julian Edelman won’t matter that much (hard to see) and Bill Belichick won’t outcoach Andy Reid (okay…). That’s a lot to hope for.

Is an offense with Alex Smith, Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, Travis Kelce and an injured Jeremy Maclin really going to beat this Patriots team in New England? I’d be quite surprised.

Patriots 24, Chiefs 10

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (13-3)

It’s easy to get back on the Green Bay Packer bandwagon after they finally clicked against Washington. The fact of the matter is the Arizona Cardinals are a lot better than the Packers. Aaron Rodgers feels like a one man show out there and let’s be clear, the Cardinals are great. Arizona scored 38 or more points six times this season. One of those was against Green Bay in Week 16 (38-8).

The Packers won’t be able to stop Arizona either. Carson Palmer, who is probably itching to win his first playoff game, had played great all season. David Johnson is great. I don’t think Randall Cobb or James Jones will be able to do much here. I expect a lot of points from Arizona here.

Cardinals 38, Packers 28

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) @ Carolina Panthers (15-1)

Toughest game of the weekend to pick for sure. Carolina beat Seattle in Week 6 in Seattle no less. I don’t think this is the same Seattle team though, and truthfully Carolina may be a little overrated.

Truth about the Panthers? They’ve only beaten four teams with winning records all season: Seattle, Green Bay, Washington and Houston. Their defense can be beaten and I think Seattle’s been the hottest team on offense recently. They really do have Beast Mode back this time around. I can’t help but think Carolina is in trouble.

Will Greg Olsen rip apart Seattle again? Maybe. Will Cam Newton pull a victory out of nowhere and show why he’s the MVP? Maybe. Am I overrating Seattle after they should have lost in Minnesota last week? Well I think the weather screwed with that. I think the two time defending NFC Champions are hitting their stride and the upset is happening. Sorry Cam.

Seahawks 24, Panthers 21 

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (12-4)

Ben Roethlisberger injured ligaments in his throwing arm. De’Angelo Williams isn’t playing. Antonio Brown is out. The Broncos have a great defense. Good luck with that Pittsburgh.

While we don’t know what Peyton Manning is going to give us, and if Pittsburgh can get some turnovers of Peyton maybe we might get one of those crazy games where the Steelers have 100 total yards but is somehow ahead 17-14. I don’t really see it. If Pittsburgh was healthy I’d actually be all for them in regards to an upset…but I don’t think so now.

Broncos 17, Steelers 9

 

Football

NFL 2016 Playoff Predictions! Wildcard Round (And A Look Back At the Season Predictions)

Let’s look back at our Season Predictions to see how we did! Actual records are in parentheses.

NFC East

Giants: 11-5 (6-10)
Cowboys: 10-6 (4-12)
Eagles 9-7 (7-9)
Redskins 6-10 (9-7)

Man was this division bad. Washington actually pulled it off at 9-7. Tony Romo got hurt and that was that for Dallas, and Tom Coughlin and Chip Kelly lost their jobs.

NFC North

Vikings: 11-5 (11-5)
Packers: 11-5 (10-6)
Lions: 8-8 (7-9)
Bears: 7-9 (6-10)

Pretty much nailed this division as I was only a game off with Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago (but we got the order correct). I knew Minnesota would be better.

NFC South

Panthers: 10-6 (15-1)
Saints: 8-8 (7-9)
Falcons: 7-9 (8-8)
Buccaneers: 4-12 (6-10)

Close with this one too, although Carolina did a lot better than 10-6. Atlanta started super hot then did as the Falcons do and faded when it mattered.

NFC West

Seahawks: 12-4 (10-6)
Rams: 6-10 (7-9)
Cardinals: 5-11 (13-3)
49ers: 4-12 (5-11)

Carson Palmer at 35 returned from his injured ACL as a MVP candidate, so I really missed there. Everything else played out normally.

AFC East

Patriots: 12-4 (12-4)
Bills: 9-7 (8-8)
Dolphins: 7-9 (6-10)
Jets: 6-10 (10-6)

Perhaps I should have had more confidence in my Jets despite that they blew a playoff opportunity at the end. Despite the good records this division feels weaker that it looks.

AFC North

Ravens: 11-5 (5-11)
Steelers: 9-7 (10-6)
Bengals: 6-10 (12-4)
Browns: 3-13 (3-13)

Really underrated the Bengals here. I thought they’d fall off after season after season of an early round playoff exit, but that didn’t happen at all. I also thought Baltimore due to good coaching would get back on track, but injuries never let them have a chance (they didn’t seem that great when healthy either).

AFC South

Colts: 12-4 (8-8)
Texans: 6-10 (9-7)
Titans: 5-11 (3-13)
Jaguars: 3-13 (5-11)

I don’t even know what happened to the Colts, but it’s clear the team needs to build around Andrew Luck (although they somehow won more games with Matt Hasselbeck. Weird season.). Houston basically did the same thing as last year but this time it won them the division.

AFC West

Chiefs: 11-5 (11-5)
Chargers: 11-5 (4-12)
Broncos: 10-6 (12-4)
Raiders: 6-10 (7-9)

I almost got the story right for this division. It did look like Denver’s QB woes and change in coaching philosophy was going to coast them the division, only they pulled it off in the very last game. I absolutely missed on the Chargers here.

For the record, Cam Newton should be the league MVP. If that wasn’t obvious.

Ok, Wildcard predictions! We went 9-2 last year so matching that would be an accomplishment!

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

First, an odd note about all the Wildcard games this season. All the road teams are arguably better. How crazy is that?

Kansas City has been the hottest team in the league really, winning 10 straight games to get to the playoffs. They beat Houston Week 1 in Houston for whatever that’s worth. The KC defense should theoretically eat Brian Hoyer…or worse, if Hoyer goes down again Brandon Weeden…alive. Andy Reid’s known to make some playoff mistakes and usually his team (or the Chiefs historically for some reason) shouldn’t be trusted in the playoffs. But I mean, we’re one bad hit away from Brandon Weeden here!

The Texans’ best chance is that they shut down that 5-20 yard passing zone (which they do well, apparently) and J.J. Watt harasses Alex Smith all day. That’s possible! Too bad Kansas City probably only needs about 20 points to win this one.

Chiefs 20, Texans 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) @ Cinncinati Bengals (12-4)

So how much does Andy Dalton matter here? Even though the Steelers beat an A.J. McCarron-led Bengals team in Week 14, it wasn’t like McCarron was awful there or Ben Roethlisberger was all that great. And while McCarron hasn’t been amazing he’s been fine not taking chances and not turning the ball over. Did you know the Steelers defense thrives on takeaways? If McCarron plays safe and Jeremy Hill has a big game on the ground, it should be tough for Pittsburgh play well defensively. This is the style of attack I think we’ll see from the Bengals considering we’re getting a zero degree game.

Still, Big Ben could win this game with some big plays on his own. I think the weather conditions and whether or not Martavis Bryant wakes up will be the best chance for Pittsburgh. But I don’t think it’ll be enough. DeAngelo Williams going down left Pittsburgh with pure hopelessness on the ground and in those freezing games sometimes that matters. That, being on the road and Big Ben with only a 1:3 TD:INT ratio against the Bengals this year are all big enough factors that should hold back Pittsburgh.

Plus, it’s not like a questionable QB never beat the Steelers in the playoffs recently. I had to get a Tim Tebow reference in there somehow.

Bengals 20, Steelers 18

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Speaking of freezing games, this may rival the coldest playoff game in history or something close. And while I like Teddy Bridgewater more than most, I think he’s getting eaten alive here once Seattle slows down Adrian Peterson. Seattle, easily the hottest team in the league right now, is going to get beat by Bridgewater in -7 degree weather after they stack the box against Peterson (this is what Kam Chancellor’s for). Not going to happen.

And Seattle gets Beast Mode back.

Vikings one hope: the Rams always seem to beat Washington and did so in Week 16…and that’s like the poor man’s Vikings right?

Seahawks 21, Vikings 3

Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Washington Redskins (9-7)

What the heck happened to the Green Bay Packers. Injuries to Jordy Nelson and Sam Shields just killed them on both sides of the ball down the stretch, eh. The Shields one matters here as this should be a shootout now.

Crazy stat: Kirk Cousins actually had just as good a season as Aaron Rodgers. 31 TD, 8 INT, 3,821 Yards, 6.7 YPA, 60% Completion for Rodgers this year. Cousins went for 29 TD, 11 INT, 4,166 Yards, 7.7 YPA, 70% Completion. How crazy is that. Of course, Rodgers did this will most of his main weapons down or falling apart. So both of these teams will score a lot this weekend, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this but I’m going to ride Cousins and the Redskins here. The Packers just looked bad the last two months. They lost to Detroit once, beat them a 2nd time because of some crazy Hail Mary, lost to the Bears and are coming off getting spanked by Arizona and losing the division to Minnesota in Green Bay. Sure, Washington hasn’t beaten anyone significant this year, but I really like how they played down the stretch to win their division and make the playoffs. It’s rare that I go with the momentum pick, but Green Bay just doesn’t look good.

Redskins 35, Packers 30

 

Football

2015 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2015 NFL Season! For a few years parity has actually been escaping the NFL although no one has seemed to notice or care. The NFL is more popular than ever and if recent events involving Commissioner Roger Goodell doesn’t dent that popularity than nothing will. Back to the parity point, for years many claimed that parity, that any team could win and perhaps go to the Super Bowl any year, was a big reason for the NFL’s popularity. Only the last three years have shown otherwise. The AFC Title game for the past four years have been Patriots-Ravens (2012 postseason), Patriots-Ravens again (2013), Patriots-Broncos (2014) and Patriots-Colts (2015). On the NFC side it has been 49ers-Giants (2012), 49ers-Falcons (2013), 49ers-Seahawks (2014) and Seahawks-Packers (2015). It isn’t even as if the Packers and Colts or even Giants were new to this either. So while another team may surprisingly win the division or even sneak into the Conference Title game, the days of the surprising 1999 Rams or 2003 Panthers seem to be over. That’s fine, as it makes things easier to predict.

With that being said…RDT’s 2015 NFL Predictions.

NFC East

nflpredeli

Giants: 11-5
Cowboys: 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 6-10

It has been a few years since the Giants last surprised us with a Super Bowl run. While I don’t necessarily think a Super Bowl is in the cards this year this is the first time in a few years where I think the Giants aren’t being talked about enough (and I live in NY!). The Giants were a slightly better team than expected last year (7.5 Pythagorean Wins against 6 actual wins). With Odell Beckham giving Eli Manning his best weapon in his career, Eli just has to hope that whatever’s left of his offensive line can keep him protected. For two years now Eli’s O-Line has been decimated by injuries over the last couple of years and some of that lingers today. If he can get the ball out, Giants will have a chance on that side of the ball. The other thing going in the Giants’ favor is the absolute dysfunction of Washington and Philadelphia. The Redskins had their whole Robert Griffin III drama and now Kirk Cousins is starting, so that’s a mess waiting to happen. Philly has all the talent in the world, but Chip Kelly’s trade for, then lack of faith of, Sam Bradford sounds like a problem waiting to happen. I really think the ship has sailed on Kelly. What seemed revolutionary a couple of years ago now looks like a coach with too much roster power making crazy moves with a gimmick offense. I guess we’ll see. Dallas should be fine…they were arguably a play away from the NFC Title game last year…but I’ve been far past completely trusting Dallas and Tony Romo at this point.

NFC North

nflpredteddy

Vikings: 11-5
Packers: 11-5
Lions: 8-8
Bears: 7-9

It’s not just the return of Adrian Peterson, which may not even work out anyway (2,000 career caries), but that Minnesota is a young team that should only get better. They were 7-9 anyway without their best player. Part of that is Teddy Bridgewater and how well he played in his last six starts last year. According to Grantland, Teddy was 12 in QBR, completed 69% of his passes for 1,440 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTS. Best of all, it was an improvement over his first six starts. If Bridgewater improves and Peterson is still a monster, that’s suddenly a super dangerous combination. Green Bay is always going to be there as long as Aaron Rodgers plays quarterback, and him alone is enough to make Green Bay a Super Bowl contender (they almost got there last year). While they won’t fall that much, Detroit losing Ndamukong Suh is going to hurt too badly for them to be able to deal with Green Bay or Minnesota. Their offense should be fine unless Calvin Johnson regresses. The Bears should be okay, unless Jay Cutler is completely done.

NFC South

nflprednewton

Panthers: 10-6
Saints: 8-8
Falcons: 7-9
Buccaneers: 4-12

This division is still a mess and really any of the four teams can take it. I like Carolina because despite not being the most talented team, Coach Ron Rivera’s transformation into “Riverboat Ron” (leading to taking chances on 4th down and such) and Cam Newton’s play gives Carolina a shot to win any game. Atlanta may be more talented, and who knows, perhaps the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection will be unstoppable this year, but I’ve never truly believed in Matt Ryan as a top tier quarterback. He always seemed like the guy with every single weapon at his disposal (Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Michael Turner). Their defense was horrid last year as well. Atlanta’s just going to have to prove it to me. I also think I’m over the Saints. I love Drew Brees, but losing Graham is going to hurt and I think their peak is over. And let’s give Jameis Winston a year to see what he’s got first.

NFC West

nflpredsherman

Seahawks: 12-4
Rams: 6-10
Cardinals: 5-11
49ers: 4-12

Even though I think Seattle is slowly on the way down they could easily be just fine and their division is weak anyway. I can’t find a powerhouse in the NFC that’s going take the regular season crown away from them. The Rams are a fun choice I guess, but I’m not going to believe in Nick Foles at QB. While they upset Seattle last year and have a good defense I need to see more before I go in with them. The Cardinals are a prime example of a team to fall apart. Without Carson Palmer they couldn’t score a point, and now we’re getting back a 35 year old Palmer coming off a torn ACL. Palmer’s been done as a top tier QB for years and I think 2014 was just an outlier. Then again, perhaps Arizona just needs him to be merely average. We’ll find out. I assume two people retired from the 49ers as I was writing this. I’m not putting any stock whatsoever in them. You don’t drop Jim Harbaugh and get better.

I just can’t find a way to bet against Seattle making the Super Bowl again. Unless there’s a crazy Giants team (don’t rule this out…happens every few years apparently) or Aaron Rodgers really is the GOAT (don’t rule this out either, although losing Jordy Nelson makes it so much harder on him) I’m going to have to pick Seattle here. Even if they are getting hit with “The Disease of More”.

AFC East

nflpredbrady

Patriots: 12-4
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 6-10

An angry Patriots team is a scary Patriots team. While some key losses may seem to hurt them (Revis), you’re going to have to find a really good argument to convince me that New England isn’t going to make at least their fifth straight AFC Title game.  Remember how well Brady played after there were jokes that he was done and Jimmy Garoppolo was going to start? How did that turn out for the NFL? The Bills will be decent because Rex Ryan can get the best out of a smashmouth football team, but he’s still in the wrong era and Buffalo’s QB situation is appallingly bad. Miami seems to be a popular choice to surprise, but they have no secondary and Ryan Tannenhill is their quarterback. The Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick running their offense. So unless the defense wants to carry them like they did for Geno, it’s just not going to happen.

AFC North

nflpredflacco

Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 6-10
Browns: 3-13

The Ravens have some red flags…mainly their only legit WR is an aging Steve Smith and the running game looks like it has a lot to be desired. That’s okay though, their defense should carry them to at least the 9-7 range alone, and I’m more of a Joe Flacco fan than not at the moment. I think the Steelers are a bit weaker overall (and have a tough schedule…they play teams like the Colts where Baltimore doesn’t). The Bengals run of one and dones are going to end eventually, and until they move on from Andy Dalton I’m going to pick this season for that. You can’t help but feel bad for the Browns. Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel? Maybe Manziel figures it out. Don’t sleep on the Ravens though…you always have to give a real chance to well coached teams.

AFC South

nflpredluck

Colts: 12-4
Texans: 6-10
Titans: 5-11
Jaguars: 3-13

This is simple to figure out. The Jaguars are still a mess. Unless Mariotta is great right away the Titans will be bad once again, and the Texans somehow downgraded from Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (although it wouldn’t surprise me if J.J. Watt somehow won 10 games by himself at this point). That leaves the Andrew Luck Colts. I don’t think the Colts are as good as everyone says…they’re right now a popular Super Bowl pick. People are forgetting that the only reason the Colts got by Denver in the playoffs last year was because Peyton Manning was hurt. Otherwise you had a Denver-NE rematch going. Colts will be fine, Luck might be better (which is why their record doesn’t fall), but they’re still behind New England and Denver.

AFC West

nflpredcharles

Chiefs: 11-5
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 10-6
Raiders: 6-10

Put a big asterisk here, because we don’t know what Peyton Manning we are getting. Is he healthy? Is he still hurt from last year? I think that fear combined with the changes made coaching wise will hurt Denver a bit…although a 10-6 Broncos team can absolutely make the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs are a stereotypical Andy Reid team. They’ll probably win the division and lose in the opening round to Denver. I’ve always been a bit of a Philip Rivers fan and thought he played well the last two years. I think this may be San Diego’s last shot at anything. Remember last year they started 5-1 and just had a rough schedule down the stretch.

Ultimately I see a rematch in the Super Bowl. While there are some teams that I think can threaten Seattle and New England, I feel there are too many flaws out there for them to overcome their weaknesses. I think Seattle wins this time though.

 

 

 

 

 

Baseball, Basketball, Football, Hockey

Should I Bandwagon the 2015 Mets?

1 Comment

I haven’t seriously watched baseball since 2007. Being a New York Mets fan left me with an obvious feeling of inferiority living in the New York City area, as everyone and their mother rooted for the Yankees. Heck, even later in 2009 I found myself cheering on the Yanks in their quest to win the World Series. Being a Mets fan just brought upon struggles that really didn’t seem worth it to be a dedicated fan. 2007 of course was the nail in the coffin, when Tom Glavine didn’t come through and the Mets completed an epic collapse to miss the playoffs. That killed it for me. At the time all my teams were either struggling or irrelevant, and it felt like the Mets were all I had left (Knicks were terrible, Jets were whatever, I lost interest in the NHL and Chris Benoit nearly destroyed wrestling).

So I detached myself from the Mets. Sure I was still annoyed about yet another late season collapse to miss the playoffs, but I didn’t care as much as I used to. The whole Wilpon-Madoff scandal flew right by me, and it was nice not to care. The only thing that peaked my interest and had me still following the Mets from a distance was Matt Harvey. But the Mets, and baseball as a whole (yeah, the whole steroid-era deal disgusts me even today, as I built my fandom then) just wasn’t worth the trouble.

So…is it time to bandwagon the Mets? The 2015 Mets were expected to be terrible…and have shot out to a 13-3 record and an 11 game winning streak. A similar situation came up in 2012 for me, as I had lost most of my interest in the NHL in the late 2000s. In 2012 though, the Devils made a run and went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. I decided it was okay to bandwagon them for a few reasons. First, my favorite player, Martin Brodeur was still the starting goalie. Second, I did get a little into hockey over the few years prior thanks to Sidney Crosby, and did attend a Devils game earlier in 2012 before they even looked like a Stanley Cup contender. Lastly, there were several instances where I really saw just how many bandwagon fans there are for teams.

I always thought that the Yankees and Lakers (and Celtics) just had a strong fanbase for decades. In about 2011 I realized most Yankee fans from my era were full of it when the Yankees finally had to rebuild. Most of those Yankee fans disappeared because the Yankees stopped winning. It’s the same deal with the Lakers…now that Kobe’s done and they are terrible, fans have left in droves or even converted to the Clippers (including you Jack!). Ditto for the Celtics, I don’t think I’ve seen a piece of Celtic apparel all year. This works the opposite way too. I once met a Clipper fan who I said he was a Clipper fan since he was a kid, but didn’t know who Elton Brand was. The Brooklyn Nets suddenly became the cool team when they moved, but all I know is no one was sitting with me in Newark when I attended Nets games, and once it was realized that Deron Williams is one of the most overrated players in recent NBA history and the team as a whole wasn’t anything special, fans again left in droves. Don’t get me started on the Miami Heat either. Going into other sports, football always has a legion of bandwagoners, especially when it comes to the New York Giants. The list goes on and on.

My favorite bandwagon story actually involved me being called a bandwagoner. The one team I’ve always stuck by has been the New York Knicks, and it hasn’t been a pretty century. I was (am) a pretty big opponent of the Carmelo Anthony trade. In 2012 the Knicks were floundering with Melo. But when Linsanity saved the Knicks that season, everything changed. I made sure I had a Lin jersey and everything. One early Sunday, after Linsanity had cooled, the Knicks lost a pretty important game against the Sixers (I think). I remember walking through NYC afterwards and someone called me a bandwagon fan because of the Lin jersey. He was wearing a Melo jersey of course. And while it may not be the case, I’d be willing to bet that this particular fan didn’t go through Marbury and Francis, or Rose and Curry. I’m willing to bet he became a fan when Carmelo showed up. Ironic, isn’t it?

So I’ve made a list of rules that I consider to be the Book of Bandwagoning. Yes it’s okay to be a bandwagoner, as long as you abide by these rules.

  1. You don’t pretend to know more than you do about the team. If you are bandwagoning this Mets team, don’t pretend to know about the 1986 Championship team just to fit in.
  2. You don’t flip flop. If you are leaving a team you are sick of, don’t run back to them when they get good again and pretend you never left. For example, the Phoenix Suns became my 2nd favorite team because my favorite player, Steve Nash, joined them. But if you asked me who would I want to win a hypothetical Finals between the Knicks and Suns at that time, I’d pick the Knicks. If your answer there is the Suns, then you’ve officially given up your Knicks fandom.
  3. You can become a real fan if you stick with the lows. For example, if you are still a LA Laker fan now, then you’re a real fan and not a bangwagoner anymore.
  4. You don’t call out others for bangwagoning. I absolutely hated seeing Giants fans call out Eagles bandwagon fans all over Facebook over the last few years. Of course, then both of those fanbases went after Dallas. Division rivalries are great without tons of fake fans. By the way, Yankee fans did this to Red Sox fans in 2004 too.
  5. You admit you are a bandwagon fan. Perhaps the most important rule. If you are a bandwagon fan, say so. Everytime I talk about the 2012 Devils, I start with “I bandwagoned them”. Because I did. And I enjoyed it. And it was fun. And I can’t even name a Devil right now.

There are some exceptions to whether or not you are a bandwagon fan. It’s perfectly fine to become a fan of a team if you are a fan of a particular player (like Peyton Manning and Chris Paul fans…or nearly like me and Nash) as long as you explain it.

In conclusion, I’m not bandwagoning the Mets yet. It’s too early. But if they are in the mix come September, don’t be surprised to see me with a Mets cap on once again.

Basketball, Football

Two Examples of Unlucky #13 in Sports

unlucky13

Friday the 13th, for whatever reason, is considered an unlucky day (Wikipedia says something about Jesus and the Middle Ages). Specifically, the number 13 is considered unlucky, with skyscrapers often omitting a 13th floor for example. In sports, the number 13 doesn’t seemingly have any real significance with luck. For example Kurt Warner won a Superbowl for the Rams wearing #13. But still, there are some examples, and I am going to cherry pick two of them.

Dan Marino is in the discussion of greatest Quarterback of all-time. He’s somewhere from #4 through #7 on my list. Before the NFL got all pass happy and before Brett Favre played for what seemed to be forever, Marino set virtually all the major passing records. When he retired Marino was 1st in passing yards (3rd now), 1st in TDs (now 1st), had the single season passing record for yards and TDs and countless other records. What he didn’t have, was a Superbowl ring.

Marino couldn't get by Montana...and never got there again
Marino couldn’t get by Montana…and never got there again

Marino got close early on with a Superbowl appearance in his 2nd season (the same year he set the single season yards and TD records), but lost to Joe Montana’s 49ers. The next season Marino and the Dolphins were upset by the New England Patriots in the AFC Title game. At that point Marino would never get farther, going back to one AFC title game in 1992 and losing to the Bills. In 1993 the bad luck really took hold, as the Dolphins were the AFC favorites but fell when Marino tore his Achilles Tendon. Marino was still quite good afterwards, but the Dolphins never got past the Divisional Round again (yes, as of 2015 this is still true).

The Dolphins never surrounded Marino with any elite talent, especially a top rusher to ease the pressure on him (like John Elway getting Terrell Davis). How can the most prolific QB of the pre-Manning-Brady era make only 1 Superbowl and 3 AFC Title games in 17 years? This

The other example of a cursed #13 in sports is two time NBA MVP Steve Nash. Nash had some early back troubles that limited his effectiveness, but came on strong for the Mavericks and transformed into a MVP candidate when the hand checking and defense rules changed for the 2004-2005 season. Nash would average over 11 assists a game in five different seasons and over ten in two others. He got to the Conference Finals three times, losing each time to a team led by a top 15 player of all time (Tim Duncan’s Spurs, Kobe Bryant’s Lakers and Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks). Despite being perhaps the top offensive player in the league for several seasons and producing the best possible basketball out of Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Amar’e Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa and countless others, Steve Nash never played a NBA Finals game.

Nash never played in a NBA Finals
Nash never played in a NBA Finals

Nash will most likely go down as the player who played the most games without playing in a NBA finals game. In his post #13 days, Nash looked to engineer a Lakers offense with Bryant and Dwight Howard. That unfortunately fell apart and one of the reasons is Nash’s body fell apart. Nash is expected to retire this off-season without ever having that chance to play in the finals. Did #13 curse him too?

Football

Super Bowl XLIX Prediction

super-bowl-xlix

We are now 9-1 for the playoffs (you know, the Steelers are my only loss here AND knocked me out of my Survivor pool earlier this season, shrug) with a chance for double digits! Personally, I dislike both teams for a multitude of reasons. New England because I’m a Jets fans and their two Giants Super Bowl wins made us Jets fans even feel worse. The Seahawks because of Pete Carroll, and their rumored P.E.D. use over the years. New England has had their big “cheating” scandal as well over the past two weeks with “Deflategate”. To be honest, it’s been overblown. Is it really shocking that the Patriots pushed the limits with the rules once again? The only thing that really made me wonder was the fumble data analysis. I’m not really here to write about the cheating scandals though…that can be for another entry. I don’t like either of these teams so all bias is out the window. Let’s get to win #10.

New England Patriots (14-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-4)

My gut and betting lines seem to be favoring New England just a little bit. I assume this is because of their dominance over Indianapolis while Seattle had to pull off a comeback of epic proportions. If Packer coach Mike McCarthy knew what he was doing Green Bay would have won…and probably would have won easily. But he doesn’t and they didn’t. The thing is, we aren’t getting a horrible Russell Wilson game like that again. If anything, last week’s comeback was the kick in the ass Seattle needed.

Whether or not Seattle is as good as last year, I still think they are better than everyone else and it’s not as close as people think. Yes Green Bay took them to the limit, but think about it. Seattle turned the ball over five times and STILL managed to win the game. Russell Wilson had the worst three quarters of his career, and still Seattle found a way to win.

Interestingly, this Super Bowl is also a battle between teams with many eff-U edges. Marshawn Lynch is trying to prove that all the talk that Seattle may release him at the end of the season is ridiculous (he’s succeeded). Discussions after Week 4 centered around Tom Brady being benched for a 2nd rounder (Jimmy Garoppolo). New England has faced this “Deflategate” debacle. Richard Sherman always has a chip on his shoulder. I could go on and on here. Everyone has something to prove.

It comes down to this though. Seattle can stop 37 year old Tom Brady.

I don’t think New England can stop Marshawn Lynch.

Seahawks 29, Patriots 17

Football

NFL 2014-2015 Conference Title Game Predictions

Nailed all four games last week, even though it made me sad to see my prediction of Peyton Manning ring true. 7-1 this playoff season…only missing the opening round contest with Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) @ New England Patriots (13-4)

It has been a great season for the Colts and the future is brighter than ever for Andrew Luck. But the problems Denver had last week just aren’t going to show up here. The Patriots seem ready to go and pulled out a classic against Baltimore last week. Tom Brady is ready. The Patriots do have two things that disappeared in the divisional round: a pass rush and a running game. As a result of the latter the Colts will score points. But it won’t be enough. I’m sensing pure statement game here as The Pats look for ring #4 and the 1st in 10 years.

This game reminds me a little bit of the 1996 NFC Conference Title game, with the Colts playing the Packers and the Patriots playing the Cowboys (with the added Broncos playing the 49ers). The Packers, led by young upstart QB Brett Favre, upset the 49ers the week before as Steve Young struggled. The Packers had all the momentum, but were taken down by the experienced Cowboys. Luck and the Colts are close…but they aren’t there yet.

Patriots 35, Colts 24

Green Bay Packers (13-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-4)

As I said last week, the Seahawks are football’s best team. I have another comparison to make here in regards to how I feel about this game, although it doesn’t work nearly as well as the previous comparison. First though, some history between these two teams: the Seahawks thumped Green Bay 36-16 in the opener this season. Seattle has been on a tear defensively for the last two months. The Panthers’ 17 points were the most by a Seahawks opponent since November 17. Seattle is really good and are the defending champions. This will be no walk in the park. Seattle is in top form.

The Packers barely survived Dallas last week in Lambeau. While the Dez Bryant non-catch hurt a lot, it didn’t necessarily mean Dallas was winning this game (Green Bay only has to score 3 at home with minutes to go? Okay). Still, as the national lovefest for Aaron Rodgers continues (not that its unwarranted) we keep being told how courageous and incredible it is that Rodgers is playing with an injured calf. And that is true! It’s also going to be a big reason why Seattle wrecks him this Sunday. The Dallas defense and Seattle defense are very different. Seattle is going to go after him. I don’t see an injured Rodgers beating this Seattle team. I don’t see Green Bay stopping Marshawn Lynch either after DeMarco Murray piled up 123 yards last week. Too many red flags here.

As for the comparison. This game feels a lot like the 2006 NFC Championship game. Seattle would be the Bears here. Packers would be like the Saints. A top flight offense led by a lights out QB against a great defense and running game. And while Aaron Rodgers is better than Drew Brees, the Seahawks as a whole are better than the Bears. Green Bay will keep this close for a while, but Seattle’s really too good right now.

Seahawks 38, Packers 21

 

Football

2014-2015 NFL Divisional Round Predictions!

Went 3-1 last week. That Ravens-Steelers game was always going to be the toughest to call.

Anyway, Divisional Round, let’s do it!

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The Ravens won a frigid game in Pittsburgh where they shut down the Steeler run game (that was missing La’Veon Bell) and had Joe Flacco continue his run as one of the best postseason quarterbacks of all time (how crazy does that sound?)

Does that mean they are beating New England? Maybe…

The Patriots and Ravens have arguably been the two most successful NFL franchises of the past 15 years. The first notable battle between the two though actually took place during the regular season of the Patriots perfect run. The Ravens got close to being the only team to beat the Patriots during that regular season. Two years later the Ravens shocked the Patriots in Foxboro by beating up Tom Brady and having Ray Rice run all over them. If you told me the Bill Belichick-Brady era was over right there I would have believed you. That’s how bad it looked. Two years after that the Patriots and Ravens met again in the AFC Title game, where a missed field goal made the difference for New England. The very next year they met in the AFC Title game again, but this time took care of business and won the Super Bowl a couple of weeks afterwards.

You’ve got two of the best (if not the best) coaches in the NFL in Belichick and John Harbaugh. A surefire Hall of Fame Quarterback in Brady against one of the best playoff QBs there is in Flacco. And you have two teams that have a genuine rivalry going at it once again. It’s going to be a tough game of course, and it will help the Ravens that the weather will just be like it was in Pittsburgh last week.

Forget all the stats though. I think a fire was lit under New England’s ass this season after week 4. I think something happened to Belichick when he got asked if Tom Brady was going to be benched. I think something got to Brady. I don’t see this Patriots team going quietly. That and this is the best Patriots D we’ve seen in some time as well. Close as always, but I can’t help but feel New England is out for blood.

Patriots 24, Ravens 17

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

This is going to be short.

Don’t let the midseason distractions fool you. The Seahawks are still football’s best team. They were absolutely rolling at the end of the season. Once in their last six games did a team manage to score double digits against them (Eagles, 14). The Seahawks also have some wins against legitimately good teams: they beat Green Bay and Denver early on. They had a top 10 ranked offense and the best defense in football by traditional means. DVOA wise, they were top 5 in both. Seattle is the team to beat. Period.

The Panthers didn’t even look that great last week. Somehow the Ryan Lindley led Cardinals actually hung in the game for a while, even though they were led by Ryan Lindley. The Panthers are an okay team. Seattle is a great team.

I think Seattle wants to make a statement too.

Seahawks 45, Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) @ Green Bay Packers (12-4)

One of the more interesting statistics here: Dallas was 8-0 on the road this season, Green Bay was 8-0 at home.

I wrote last week that this is Dallas’ best team in years due to some convincing wins and overall great play from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Officiating controversies aside, I thought it was impressive Dallas won last week against Detroit with Murray being held to 75 yards and a 3.75 average.

The thing is, Green Bay is just better than Detroit. Aaron Rodgers might have locked up a MVP award this season and his gutsy performance against Detroit in Week 17 just showed he’s at the top of his game. Overall the Packers are better offensively and defensively than Dallas, although neither has a particularly strong defense. Could Dallas rack up some points on Green Bay? Sure. But I think there’s a better chance Green Bay racks up points on the Cowboys.

Here’s what Dallas needs to bank on. Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury stemming from the game against Detroit in Week 17. It’s a cold weather game, which won’t help Rodgers. If Dallas can get to Rodgers, they may be able to turn this one in their favor. On their side, Murray needs to run the ball right through Green Bay’s defense. And Tony Romo just can’t make any big mistakes.

This would be a good game plan…but I think Aaron Rodgers is too tough to lose that way. Sure the calf is torn…but it was injured against Detroit too, right?

Packers 31, Cowboys 23

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ Denver Broncos (12-4) 

Come on, we all knew Andrew the Giant was taking care of business against the Bengals. There’s nothing else really to say about the Colts. I know football is a team sport, but if there was one guy in the NFL right now that is carrying his team it is Andrew Luck. I can’t imagine the Colts being a playoff team without Luck. They have by far the worst rushing attack in football. Their defense is suspect. And a lot of it doesn’t matter because of Luck.

The Colts got smacked in a similar Divisional Round game last year when Brady (and really, LaGarrett Blount) and the Patriots scored 43 and beat down the Colts before they had a chance to make anything happen. Same idea here right? The Colts are up against an aging but still great and legendary quarterback in Peyton Manning, and a running back that seemingly came out of nowhere in C.J. Anderson. The difference is that per DVOA, the Broncos were top 5 on both sides of the ball. Everything for this game points to Denver winning this one with ease.

But…

Well, what’s with Denver’s offense change? How are the Denver Broncos, with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time who was throwing 400 yard games with no problem earlier in the season, suddenly taking a rush first approach with C.J. Anderson? I understand that Anderson was looked nice…but what in the world? I think something’s wrong with Peyton. It might have just been a moment. We’ve all read the stories of his arm being weak. He’s 38 years old. He had serious neck surgery a few years ago. I can’t explain why the Broncos on offense are suddenly relying so much on C.J. Anderson. Maybe it was to rest Peyton. I don’t know. Combine this with the fact that Peyton Manning is one of the most inconsistent big game playoff QBs ever, and suddenly I think a real upset is in the making.

This is one of those perfect scenarios in sports. Peyton against his old team. His successor lighting the league up. I think we remember this game as the day Andrew Luck truly arrived and we know Peyton’s true best is behind him. Bold I know. But I think it’s time.

Colts 24, Broncos 21

Football

NFL 2014-2015 Wildcard Predictions

NFL Wildcard weekend is upon us. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Your NFC South Division “winners”, the Panthers, have not lost in December after a seven game non-winning streak (six losses and one tie). They’ve only beaten one team with a winning record (Detroit), and that was week 2. While they’re obviously hot, it’s not like they beat the cream of the crop in these last four weeks. It is impressive though that they beat both New Orleans and Atlanta on the road by a combined score of 75-13.

Yet the Panthers are big favorites over the Cardinals. The Cards have been lost after losing QB Carson Palmer for a second time this season…and for the remainder of the season. While Drew Stanton filled in at least respectably, he went down as well and left the Cardinals with Ryan Lindley. To give you a perspective on Lindley’s career, it took him to his sixth NFL Start to throw his first touchdown pass. He had seven interceptions already. Even tossing his first two TD scores wasn’t enough to lead the Cardinals past the downtrodden 49ers in week 17.

Look, the Cardinals have a much better defense, a better coach (Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera for sure) and really probably a better everything else, but this quarterback situation is brutal. There were stories that the Cards were calling Kurt Warner to play for him. Kurt Warner! He hasn’t played in five years! And anytime your QB is so bad that your fans are clamoring for the return of Drew Stanton…you aren’t winning a playoff game. It’s a shame for the Cardinals season for sure, but that’s just the way it goes.

For anyone who thinks a losing team can’t win a playoff game, history is actually on Carolina’s side here. The 2010-2011 Seahawks won their division at 7-9 and then beat New Orleans 41-36.

Panthers 17, Cardinals 9

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) 

Pittsburgh won the tight AFC North Division, a division that seemed to be going Cincinnati’s way all season long. Unlike the Panthers, who won all December games over subpar competition, the Steelers won all their December games against good competition, beating the Bengals twice and the 9-7 Chiefs as well. At one point the entire AFC North was close and it looked as if any of the four teams could win the division, but the Steelers won all their key games down the stretch, including a huge victory over the Ravens on November 2nd

The Ravens though, were no slouches toward the end of the season either, winning five of their last seven. They got a random career year out of running back Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco had what can arguably be considered his best career regular season. The Ravens also had top 10 offenses and defenses per DVOA, which shows a solid balance. John Harbaugh has this Ravens teams going for sure. A bonus too is that the Steelers will be without their star back Le’Veon Bell.

So why am I not sold on Baltimore? Well of their ten victories, they won one game against a team with a winning record, which was Pittsburgh in Baltimore during week 2. After that? They beat Cleveland at Cleveland, Carolina, the Bucs, the Falcons, the Titans, New Orleans, Miami, the Jaguars and finally Cleveland again. All of their losses came against teams with winning records. Not inspiring to say the least.

Ben Roethlisberger has also posted a career near 5K yard year. I don’t think he’s going down in one playoff game after that.

Steelers 24, Ravens 13

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

I could probably just write Andrew Luck vs. Andy Dalton and be done with it…but football doesn’t really work that way.

To be honest though, my confidence in each of these two QBs is what makes the result easy to determine. I mean, you watched last year’s playoffs right? Andrew Luck willed his team back from a 38-10 deficient to beat the Chiefs. The Bengals meanwhile got beat at home against the Chargers 10-27.

This year? The Colts are clearly one level below the elite, beating Baltimore, Texans and even the Bengals, but also had all five losses come against top teams (Denver, pre-Sanchez Philly, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas). The Bengals even recently had a victory over Denver, but that’s amidst a lot of questions about Peyton Manning. The Bengals had a chance to lock up the division last week and in typical Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengal fashion, they lost.

I just can’t not take a team quarterbacked by Andrew Luck here…in Indy no loss.

Colts 31, Bengals 10

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Two long suffering franchises (in Detroit’s case, very long) that have a chance to make a run in the NFC. This is Dallas’ best crack at a Superbowl appearance since they blew the 2008 NFC Divisional game to the Giants. As for Detroit, well, this is their first real chance since Barry.

I’m not sure what to make of this Lions team to be honest. If I told you before the season that your new coach would be Jim Caldwell and your megastar receiver, Calvin Johnson, would have an off year, would you think you would be 11-5 and heading to the playoffs? Of course not. So what’s changed? Well, Detroit suddenly has one of the best defensive units in football, and the best rushing one at that per DVOA. And with Ndamukong Suh leading the way and appealing his one game suspension, that defense is going to be the key to victory for Detroit.

On the opposite Dallas has the best rusher in football: DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo has put together his best season in what feels to be a last gasp to repair his reputation and prove he is in fact one of football’s best QBs. Overall I think this Cowboys team is just too good from top to bottom to lose to Detroit. It doesn’t help that Detroit still feels like an undisciplined team after Suh stepped on Aaron Rodgers.

The Cowboys have had some convincing wins this season and I’ll be surprised to see Detroit be the one to end it just like that.

Cowboys 23, Lions 16