3-1 last week puts me at 5-3 for this playoffs. (20-10 all-time). Look at that, I didn’t believe in Aaron Rodgers again.

Green Bay Packers (12-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (12-5)

And I’m not quite sure I’m picking him here either. I was happy to see the Falcons live up to what I said last week about their game against the Seahawks. Matt Ryan and Co. have been disappointing for years now, but their amazing offense has felt like the real deal.

There are a lot of factors in play here. This is the last game in the Georgia Dome and you know the crowd will be insane. Matt Ryan has faced many playoff disappointments, so he’s hungry for a Super Bowl run. Atlanta’s offense was historically good, and it’s not like Green Bay is known for their defense. The Falcons beat the Pack by 1 back in the middle of the season, 33-32, winning the game in the last minute. Both Ryan and Rodgers were amazing in that game. We know Jordy Nelson is injured too, which hurts the Green Bay offense. Everything points to a shootout here, where the superior Atlanta firepower wins out.

But I really don’t want to pick against Aaron Rodgers again. I really don’t. He’s playing at an insane level right now. That whole narrative about him being a bad leader? Well, that’s went to hell. I can’t help but feels he’s going to pull this one out. It’ll be close, but whoever gets the ball last in this close one with at least 30 seconds left is probably going to win it, and if I had to pick a QB in this matchup it’s Rodgers

Packers 38, Falcons 35

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) @ New England Patriots (15-2)

Fun fact: when picking the Steelers last week, a big reason I came to that decision, other than the history of the Kansas City Chiefs choking away pretty much every important game with a coach who historically does poorly in the playoffs, is that I actually felt that the they are the best team in the AFC.

Let’s look at the Patriots. They had five games against playoff teams in the regular season: the Dolphins twice (won both), the Steelers (with Landry Jones at QB, a W) , the Texans (beat them 27-0, but lol Texans) and the Seahawks (loss). They also had wins over decent teams like the Ravens and Broncos. But I wouldn’t call their schedule remotely tough. So that 14-2 is a bit inflated. Despite the big record, I don’t feel super confident about the Patriots week in and week out. I guess I can’t completely explain this, but even the Texans hung around a little last week. Something feels off here.

Pittsburgh is hot. They’ve won nine straight. Their last loss was a close one against a really good Dallas Cowboy team. Le’Veon Bell is a monster. Roethlisberger is mostly playing well. They just beat the Chiefs again in Kansas City. Their defense has improved as the season progressed. This is a team that’s been there before.

Something just smells like upset.

Steelers 24, Patriots 21