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Football

2017 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

2-2 last week (17-9 all-time). That’s what I get for believing in some Giants miracle and not believing in Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

At first I was all ready to take the Seahawks under my “Matt Ryan has always been subpar in the playoffs” + “Seattle has the experience factor in their favor”. But I had to change my mind here for a few reasons.

One, I have to give Matt Ryan his due. He finally played like the quarterback everyone has said he’s been over the past few years. He, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman have run an incredible offense here. If this were the Seahawks of a few years ago I’d say their defense could take Atlanta down…but this isn’t the same defense. I also don’t completely buy the Seahawks at this point. Yeah, them beating a banged up Lions team is no surprise, but the Falcons are a different story. Then again Seattle did down New England on the road back in November, so I might be underselling them.

You know what kind of teams Seattle reminds me of though? Those dynasty teams that are in their last few years where they are considered a threat by name, but they are probably losing to the hot new team. My favorite examples are the 97 Cowboys who dropped a Divisional Round game to the 2nd year Carolina Panthers and the 98 49ers, who lost to the Chris Chandler-Jamal Anderson Falcons. Their runs were just over. Just like Seattle’s probably is.

Plus maybe it was all Mike Smith’s fault.

Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

What is there to say really? You know that the Patriots beat the Texans 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at Quarterback, right?

Patriots 40, Texans 7

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)

I’m ready to pick against Rodgers again! There’s a little too much of “omg we underrated Aaron Rodgers he’s gonna tear through the players” and we forget the Giants were a bit shaky all year. Plus, Dallas has the best weapon possible against Rodgers: Ezekiel Elliott moving the chains and creating long, time killing drives. Aaron Rodgers can’t beat you when he’s on the bench. Do we really think this Packer defense is slowing down Elliott?

Cowboys 20, Packers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Andy Reid sure knows how to put together great regular seasons. I just can’t bring myself to believe in the Chiefs. Weather it’s the coach (Reid), the playoff history (so many disappointing Chiefs losses, many of them when they had a first round bye), the QB (Alex Smith is good and all, but never going to scare you) I just can’t do it. I correctly predicted three years ago that Andrew Luck would beat them and he did. I like this Steelers team a lot. They’re on fire. They took care of business last week. They have good DVOA ratings. They seem superior in every way. I just think they’re better. Only thing that can stop Big Ben and co. is the weather. Even then, is that going to do Kansas City any favors?

Steelers 24, Chiefs 17

 

 

Football

2017 NFL Wildcard Predictions

Ok, Wildcard predictions! We went 9-2 two years ago and 6-5 last year for a total of 15-7. Let’s have a good year!

Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

What a depressing game. The Raiders looked primed for at minimum a showdown with the Patriots in these playoffs and maybe a Super Bowl run. Derek Carr then breaks his leg and now we’re here. Connor Cook inherits a solid running game, a great offensive line and good weapons at WR. On the flip side, this is his first NFL start ever. It’ll probably be bad…but who knows who what we’ll get!

But we know what we’re getting with Brock Osweiler. He stinks. And there isn’t much else in Houston to make me think they are going to really do anything against Oakland. Houston is ranked 29th in total DVOA, 30th in offense. Their defense is still considered Top 10, but when they are probably scoring three points it won’t matter.

Raiders 13, Texans 3

Detroit Lions (9-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Sure, Seattle isn’t the same team they’ve been over the past few years and Detroit looked good this year, but this has a big Russell Wilson game all over it. Speaking of DVOA, Detroit’s defense ranked dead last. Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the same since his finger injury either. There’s just nothing here to make me think Detroit is going to win a shootout against the Seahawks in Seattle. And the Seahawks will be scoring big points.

Seahawks 37, Lions 17

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Miami’s an old school team that can run the ball and pound away at a defense. And they beat Pittsburgh in October doing just that as Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards. I don’t think the Matt Moore starting deal is going to hurt Miami that much…I mean it’s not ideal but it isn’t like Ryan Tannehill is some great QB. Miami finally seems to have a good direction under new Head Coach Adam Gase. There’s a lot to like there.

But I am taking the Steelers. They looked great down the stretch (against subpar competition but still) and do have a couple of impressive wins this season. The Steelers feel like a good team hitting their stride. Sure, momentum isn’t everything, especially when you’re beating up on the Browns, but on paper they are the better team and have experience. It’ll be close though.

Steelers 22, Dolphins 21

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Everyone is counting out the Giants this post-season. A lot of people off the Eli Manning train. Aaron Rodgers is hot and just led the Packers to what looked to be an unlikely division title. Where have I seen this script before?

The Giants should not be slept on. Their defense is great and probably a lot better off to play in a cold weather game than the Packers offense is. What am I missing? We’ve seen this twice before.

And there’s this. Mid-season, there was all this talk about how dysfunctional the Packers were and how Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a great leader. The Packers then reel off six straight wins, one of them quite impressive against the Seahawks…but otherwise against teams with real weaknesses the Packers could exploit (Jaguars, Texans and Bears are all bad, we went over Detroit’s terrible D and home against a disappointing Vikings team). Not really buying it. Not sure I should be buying the Giants either, but again, I feel like I’ve seen this script before.

Giants 27, Packers 17