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Football

2017 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

2-2 last week (17-9 all-time). That’s what I get for believing in some Giants miracle and not believing in Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

At first I was all ready to take the Seahawks under my “Matt Ryan has always been subpar in the playoffs” + “Seattle has the experience factor in their favor”. But I had to change my mind here for a few reasons.

One, I have to give Matt Ryan his due. He finally played like the quarterback everyone has said he’s been over the past few years. He, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman have run an incredible offense here. If this were the Seahawks of a few years ago I’d say their defense could take Atlanta down…but this isn’t the same defense. I also don’t completely buy the Seahawks at this point. Yeah, them beating a banged up Lions team is no surprise, but the Falcons are a different story. Then again Seattle did down New England on the road back in November, so I might be underselling them.

You know what kind of teams Seattle reminds me of though? Those dynasty teams that are in their last few years where they are considered a threat by name, but they are probably losing to the hot new team. My favorite examples are the 97 Cowboys who dropped a Divisional Round game to the 2nd year Carolina Panthers and the 98 49ers, who lost to the Chris Chandler-Jamal Anderson Falcons. Their runs were just over. Just like Seattle’s probably is.

Plus maybe it was all Mike Smith’s fault.

Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

What is there to say really? You know that the Patriots beat the Texans 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at Quarterback, right?

Patriots 40, Texans 7

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (13-3)

I’m ready to pick against Rodgers again! There’s a little too much of “omg we underrated Aaron Rodgers he’s gonna tear through the players” and we forget the Giants were a bit shaky all year. Plus, Dallas has the best weapon possible against Rodgers: Ezekiel Elliott moving the chains and creating long, time killing drives. Aaron Rodgers can’t beat you when he’s on the bench. Do we really think this Packer defense is slowing down Elliott?

Cowboys 20, Packers 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

Andy Reid sure knows how to put together great regular seasons. I just can’t bring myself to believe in the Chiefs. Weather it’s the coach (Reid), the playoff history (so many disappointing Chiefs losses, many of them when they had a first round bye), the QB (Alex Smith is good and all, but never going to scare you) I just can’t do it. I correctly predicted three years ago that Andrew Luck would beat them and he did. I like this Steelers team a lot. They’re on fire. They took care of business last week. They have good DVOA ratings. They seem superior in every way. I just think they’re better. Only thing that can stop Big Ben and co. is the weather. Even then, is that going to do Kansas City any favors?

Steelers 24, Chiefs 17

 

 

Football

2016 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2016 NFL Season! I wrote last year how parity had been escaping the NFL over the years, and no worries, that once again was the case. The Denver Broncos, a top 8 team for five straight years now (meaning they lost in the Divisional Round or better), took home a SuperBowl ring behind a vaunted defense. The Carolina Panthers, who I selected to win the NFC South (but I didn’t have the guts to pick them for the SuperBowl), continued to improve after winning their third straight division title. The Patriots were a top 4 team once again for the fifth straight year. Roger Goodell though, seems to be doing everything in his power to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

With that being said…RDT’s 2016 NFL Predictions.

2016eli

NFC East
Giants: 9-7 (4th)
Eagles: 8-8
Redskins: 5-11
Cowboys: 5-11

I feel like I pick the Giants every year for this division. I couldn’t even remember who won it last year (Washington). The Giants still have the steadiest presence as Quarterback in Eli Manning. Eli’s a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde QB at this point, either he’s great or he’s wildly inconsistent. He has Odell Beckham Jr. to throw to, so I’m sure he’ll be fine. I’m sure there are a lot of Kirk Cousins fans out there and he did play well last season. He’s not someone I’m willing to back and their defense is pretty bad. The Eagles have a rookie at QB and nothing else truly inspiring as they recover from the Chip Kelly era. Dallas just dropped lost Tony Romo again for half the season and I think we’re finished with Romo being a difference making QB. What a bad division overall.

2016rodgers
NFC North
Packers: 12-4 (1st)
Lions: 9-7 (6th)
Vikings: 8-8
Bears: 3-13

Kind of a shame for the Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater seemed poised to break out after improving in most statistical categories last season but now he’s done for 2016 and probably part of 2017 too. Adrian Peterson should be regressing, but who knows really as he’s a physical freak. Unfortunately now the Vikings are going to have Sam Bradford at the helm, who’s pretty much known for winning 7 games in a season. The Packers should take the division with ease this year, although Detroit might be able to make it interesting as that’s a team that underperforms year in and year out. The Chicago Bears meanwhile just need to start over.

Super Bowl Football
NFC South
Panthers: 12-4 (2nd)
Falcons: 8-8
Buccaneers: 7-9
Saints: 7-9

The NFC South is full of incomplete teams. I still need to see an improved Saints defense (now that Ryan is gone it should happen) before I believe it. Buccaneers can be one year away if Winston develops. Matt Ryan continues to be perhaps the most overrated quarterback in football, posting big yardage with big attempts, a meager TD:INT ratio and a below average passer rating despite having Julio Jones to throw to. The only team to believe in here is The Panthers. I’m all in on “Riverboat” Ron and Cam Newton. I feel like I somehow doubted them last year when I made them 10-6 to win the South even though I was the only one it seemed who actually picked them to do so.

2016fitz
NFC West
Cardinals: 11-5 (3rd)
Seahawks: 10-6 (5th)
Rams: 4-12
49ers: 4-12

Seattle did regress last year, and they may again this year but they are still in the Superbowl hunt. A lot will bank on if Thomas Rawls can make the plays Marshawn Lynch made for Seattle in their peak years. I totally counted out the Cardinals as a fluke last year and was wrong…but their record here is more indicative of playing in the same division as the Rams and 49ers than my confidence in them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fell off. I don’t think Los Angeles cares about football and while the Rams have been on that outside looking in level for years now, I don’t think they are breaking in unless Goff plays and is the real deal immediately. The 49ers have been a disaster since Harbaugh left and their biggest story is Kaepernick and the National Anthem, which isn’t a great sign.

2016brady
AFC East
Patriots: 10-6 (4th)
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 6-10
Jets: 5-11

I still have New England winning the AFC East although it should be a bit of a competition with Buffalo. A lot depends on how New England starts without Brady. The Bills will hang around…but there isn’t much to indicate that this year will be much different than the past two. Miami’s also a “just there” team and their running situation might make Tannenhill someone who has to throw a lot, which isn’t good. The Jets had a really easy schedule to start last year and did nothing with that, this year is a lot worse. Jets need to get past Ryan Fitzpatrick ASAP.

2016bigben
AFC North
Steelers: 11-5 (2nd)
Bengals: 11-5 (5th)
Ravens: 9-7
Browns: 3-13

The Steelers were a few plays away from perhaps making their own Super Bowl run last season and as long as Ben Roethlisberger is around they will usually be 8-8 or better. The Bengals may have been robbed of their own Super Bowl run thanks to Pacman Jones and Vontaze Burfict giving Landry Jones an easy 30 years. While I have no faith in Marvin Lewis as a head coach, there is no reason to think a healthy Andy Dalton won’t at least guarantee them another playoff berth. The Ravens should be better than last year too…although there are a lot of depth problems there (which really showed on offense last year). The Browns are just a mess.

2016luck
AFC South
Colts: 10-6 (3rd)
Jaguars: 9-7
Titans: 8-8
Texans: 6-10

The AFC South should be quite a fun division to follow. Will Andrew the Giant reclaim his throne as the best young passer in football? Probably depends what his team can do around him. The Jaguars look improved all around and they may steal the division. There is a lot of Blake Bortles hype out there. Speaking of hype, if Marcus Mariota continues to develop and DeMarco Murray regains his form the Titans could storm through the division too. I’m not a fan of Brock Osweiler though. The fact he couldn’t keep his job over probably the worst starting QB in the league in Peyton Manning last year is a bad sign all around.  Kudos for the Texans for taking a shot as their QB situation was a disaster last year though. I’m worried about J.J. Watt’s injuries too.

2016andyreid
AFC West
Chiefs: 12-4 (1st)
Broncos: 9-7 (6th)
Raiders: 9-7
Chargers: 7-9

The Chiefs still rank as a stereotypical Andy Reid team to me. So once again they should lose early in the playoffs despite giving them the #1 seed here. I’d rather have Denver’s amazing defense with no quarterback than Oakland’s young, high upside offense. San Diego probably needs to hit the reset button at this point.

Superbowl feels wide open to me. Let’s go with Green Bay finally getting back there against a returning to form Pittsburgh Steeler team, with the Packers beating them once again.

 

 

Baseball, Basketball, Football, Hockey, NASCAR

Top 25 Greatest Teams That Failed To Win The Championship

#25: 1988 New York Mets

mets88

Notable Statistics
Record: 100-60 (1st in NL)
Won NL East
Led NL in HRs, RBI, Slugging, OPS, ERA
Notable Players: David Cone, Dwight Gooden, Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry
Manager: Davey Johnson
Finish: Lost in NLCS to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 7.

Only two years removed from their ’86 World Series, the Mets were at it again, dominating the National League for the season. The Mets led the NLCS 1-0 and 2-1, but the Dodgers came back to lead 3-2. Future Met and NL Cy Young Award Winner Orel Hershiser blanked the Mets in Game 7 and the Dodgers went on to win the World Series.

#24: 1998 #6 Team, Roush Racing (Mark Martin)

markmartin98

Notable Statistics
Finished 2nd in the Winston Cup Points Standings
1998 Statistics: 7 Wins (2nd), 22 Top 5s (2nd), 26 Top 10s (2nd)
Average Finish: 8.6 (2nd)
Crew Chief: Jimmy Fennig

Mark Martin’s most impressive single season came at the same time that Jeff Gordon was setting modern day NASCAR records. Year in and year out Martin has finished in the top 5 of the points standings but each year he would just fall short for one reason or another. Usually, Martin would score two or three wins a season and fill out the rest of the year with a steady dose of Top 10s. In 1998 Martin would win seven times, and if Gordon wasn’t out putting up the most ridiculous season in NASCAR history at that time (13 Wins, 5.7 average finish), who knows how many other victories Martin could have gotten.

Consider this. In 1998 Martin averaged 150.4 points a race. That would have beaten Jeff Gordon’s 1997 Championship average (147.2), Terry Labonte’s 1996 Championship average (150.2), Gordon’s 1995 Championship Average (148.8). Dale Earnhardt’s 1994 average (151.4) beats Martin’s ’98, but Earnhardt also won that title by about 400 points. Hell, Martin’s point total in 33 races is actually greater than 2nd place Earnhardt in 2000 (34 races) and Tony Stewart’s 2nd place total in 2001 (36 races). Martin would have flat out WON the Championship in the 36 race 2002 with his 33 race total in ’98.

#23: 1995 Cleveland Indians

indians95

Notable Statistics
Record: 100-44 (1st in AL)
Won AL Central
Led NL in HRs, RBI, Slugging, OPS, ERA
Notable Players: Orel Hershiser, Charles Nagy, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel
Manager: Mike Hargrove
Finish: Lost World Series to the Atlanta Braves in 6.

A monster offensive team with a monster record. Prorate that 100-44 record to 162 games and you get about 112 wins. You had five guys on this team hit at least 25 home runs that season (again, a shortened season). You had good pitching. The Indians had 10 more wins in the regular season than anyone else in baseball. This Indians team should have tore through the post-season and ended Cleveland’s long lasting drought.

Cleveland ripped through the Red Sox and Mariners in the post-season, but ran into the great pitching staff of the Atlanta Braves. Highlighted with a World Series winning 1 hitter by Tom Glavine and Mark Wohlers, the Braves upset the Indians and continued to do quite well in the National League throughout the rest of the decade.

#22: 2005 Indianapolis Colts

colts05

Notable Statistics
Record: 14-2 (1st in NFL)
Won AFC South
NFL Ranks: 2nd in Points, 2nd in Points Allowed
Won First 13 Games in the Regular Season
Notable Players: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney
Head Coach: Tony Dungy
Finish: Lost in the Divisional Round to the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18

An epic upset forgotten by the Colts winning the title the very next season. There was a lot of undefeated talk for the Colts during the 2005 season and it looked like, with New England not being as good as they had been in the last couple of seasons, that this was their year. Elite passing, elite running and a good defense seemed like it would be enough.

The Steelers had other plans, pressuring Peyton Manning all throughout the game, sacking him five times and rushing him everywhere. Peyton failed to complete a pass in the first quarter, and the Steelers ran up an early 14-0 lead. The Colts wouldn’t score a TD until the 4th quarter, but the Steelers would barely hang on 21-18 (this included one of the worst referee overturn challenges in the history of the league, when Troy Polamalu intercepted Manning cleanly and it was ruled incomplete). In fact, we may not be talking about the Colts losing here had Ben Roethlisberger not made the tackle of his life when Jerome Bettis fumbled as the Steelers were looking to ice the game and Mike Vanderjagt made the game tying FG. The Steelers would become the first #6 seed to get to the Super Bowl a week later.

#21: 2000-2001 New Jersey Devils

devils01

Notable Statistics
Record: 48-19-12-3, 111 Points (2nd in NHL)
Won Atlantic Division
NHL Ranks: Goals 1st, Goals Against 5th
Notable Players: Martin Brodeur, Scott Niedermeyer, Scott Stevens, Patrik Elias, Alexander Mogilny, Petr Sykora
Head Coach: Larry Robinson
Finish: Lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the Colorado Avalanche in 7.

It’s not even that it was an upset victory for Colorado. The Avalanche had a huge 118 point season and seemed destined for the Cup. That doesn’t change just how good the Devils were. The Devils were already the defending Stanley Cup Champions and brought back most of the team from the season before. Martin Brodeur had proven he could win tough, low scoring playoff hockey games with his stellar performance from the season before. Colorado proved to be too talented and too deep for New Jersey though.

#20: 2011 Green Bay Packers

packers11

Notable Statistics
Record: 15-1 (1st in NFL)
Won NFC North
NFL Ranks: 1st in Points, 19th in Points Allowed
Won First 13 Games in the Regular Season
Notable Players: Aaron Rodgers (MVP), Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews Jr.
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Finish: Lost in the Divisional Round to the New York Giants 37-20

In the pass happy post 2007 NFL, Aaron Rodgers put together the greatest QB season in NFL history as the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers ripped through the league with ease. It wasn’t like they were just ranked 1st in points, they scored 35 a game and no one could hang with them. When you have a QB having the best QB season in NFL history at that point, a lot of things that could be considered weaknesses get swept under the rug. The Packers had one weakness, their defense was average at best.
The Giants tore that defense apart. The Giants D caused some turnovers and never let Green Bay get into rhythm. The Giants would find ways to come up with points on each drive of theirs. The big moment? When The Giants looked comfortable taking a 13-10 lead at halftime and Ahmad Bradshaw broke a big run. With six seconds left, Eli Manning took a hot at the end zone and suddenly it was 20-10 Giants. Green Bay never recovered.

#19: 2010-2011 Vancouver Canucks

canucks11

Notable Statistics
Record: 59-19-9, 117 Points (1st in NHL)
Won Northwest Division
NHL Ranks: Goals 1st, Goals Against 1st
Notable Players: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler, Roberto Luongo
Head Coach: Alain Vigneault
Finish: Lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the Boston Bruins in 7.

It’s quite difficult to beat a team that scores the most goals and allows the least, but that’s what Boston managed to do in the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals. The Canucks almost lost in the Quarterfinals, luckily winning Game 7 in overtime against the Blackhawks.

Still, the Canucks were stacked, featuring the Sedin twins and 41 goal scorer Ryan Kesler. They just got outplayed in the Stanley Cups Finals.

#18: 2001-2002 Sacramento Kings

kings02

Notable Statistics
Record: 61-21 (1st in NBA)
Won Pacific Division
NFL Ranks: 3rd in Offensive Rating, 6th in Defensive Rating
Notable Players: Chris Webber, Peja Stojakovic, Vlade Divac, Mike Bibby, Doug Christie, Bobby Jackson
Head Coach: Rick Adelman
Finish: Lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Los Angeles Lakers in 7.

First of all, we have to consider all the referee shenanigans that cost Sacramento Game 6. It’s one of worst officiated games in league history.

Getting past that, the 2002 Kings had everything it seemed. A star player in Webber. A crunch time guy in Bibby. A dead eye shooter in Stojakovic. The 2002 Kings were so close. Robert Horry hit a dagger in Game 4 that saved the Lakers from a 3-1 deficit. Were the Lakers beating the Kings in three straight? Not likely. Game 7 went to overtime as well. The Kings were so close to knocking off the Shaq-Kobe Lakers and just couldn’t get it done. It’s a shame, because the Nets were waiting in the NBA Finals and stood no chance of beating that Kings team (the Lakers swept them with ease). The Kings spent the next couple of years losing Game 7s to Dallas and Minnesota. They never had a greater chance than they did in 2002, referees or not.

#17: 1994 Montreal Expos

expos94

Notable Statistics
Record: 74-40 (1st in NL)
Led NL in ERA
Notable Players: Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou, Larry Walker, Ken Hill
Manager: Felipe Alou
Finish: Baseball Went on Strike

A really tough break for Montreal as some cite the strike as a big reason Montreal moved to Washington years later. The Expos were on pace for a 105 win season led by some really good pitching led by Ken Hill and Pedro Martinez. Moises Alou was on pace for a great season as well. Montreal would lose most of their players in Free Agency.

#16: 2010 New England Patriots

patriots10

Notable Statistics
Record: 14-2 (1st in NFL)
Won AFC East
NFL Ranks: 1st in Points, 8th in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Tom Brady (MVP), Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jarod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Vince Wilfork
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Finish: Lost in the Divisional Round to the New York Jets 28-21

This was supposed to be the year the New England Patriots got back on track. Ever since their upset loss in Super Bowl XLII the Patriots were in a bit of a funk (for them). Tom Brady got hurt in Week 1 the very next season and while New England went 11-5 they managed to miss the playoffs. The following year they got beat up by Baltimore in the opening round. But Brady was fully healthy in 2010 and showed it, throwing for 36 Touchdowns against merely 4 Interceptions. With the double TE combo of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski causing trouble for the rest of the league, as well as Wes Welker being Brady’s security blanket, it would be difficult to see how the Patriots weren’t going to win this year.

Bring on the New York Jets. The Jets were led by Rex Ryan and were the cause of one of the Pats two losses during the regular season. Still, it looked like the Jets stood no chance as they were destroyed by New England during Week 13 on Monday Night Football 45-3. But all of that didn’t matter. Ryan’s defense swarmed Brady all game and the Jets had a big 2nd quarter and went into halftime up 14-3. And just like that, New England’s return to dominance was stopped in its tracks.

#15: 2015 #4 Team, Stewart-Haas Racing (Kevin Harvick)

Kevin Harvick drives on track during a NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, S.C., Sunday, Sept. 6, 2015. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)

Notable Statistics
Finished 2nd in the Sprint Cup Chase
2015 Statistics: 3 Wins (5th), 23 Top 5s (1st), 28 Top 10s (1st)
Average Finish: 8.7 (1st)
15 Top 2 Finishes
Crew Chief: Rodney Childers

One of the best examples of the new eliminator Chase for the Cup format crowning the wrong driver. Kyle Busch, who had an impressive season after missing the first 11 races, was nowhere near as dominant as Harvick was in 2015. Harvick showed his 2014 wasn’t a fluke by reeling off Top 2 after Top 2. Even though he had a good Chase and even finished 2nd at Homestead, Kyle Busch won the season finale and the title. It doesn’t seem right.

#14: 1996 Denver Broncos

broncos96

Notable Statistics
Record: 13-3 (1st in NFL)
Won AFC West
NFL Ranks: 4th in Points, 7th in Points Allowed
Notable Players: John Elway, Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Steve Atwater, Bill Romanowski, Alfred Williams
Head Coach: Mike Shanahan
Finish: Lost in the Divisional Round to the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-27

How do we know this Denver Broncos team was great? They brought back basically the same players and won the next two Super Bowls.

So what the heck happened here? Jacksonville, who was only in their 2nd year of existence, put together a 9-7 record and had barely survived the Bills the week before. Denver was a two touchdown favorite here. The first half was played evenly, with Jacksonville surprising everyone by leading 13-12 at the half. Mark Brunell then played what was probably the greatest half of his life. Everytime Denver got close, Brunell would throw a big TD pass and make the lead a double digit one. It’s incredible to hear just how silent Mile High Stadium became. At the ned of the game Mike Shanahan was asked if Elway was coming back next year. Luckily for Denver, he did and they didn’t blow it up.

#13: 2013 Denver Broncos

broncos13

Notable Statistics
Record: 13-3 (1st in NFL)
Won AFC West
NFL Ranks: 1nd in Points, 22nd in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Peyton Manning (MVP), DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas
Head Coach: John Fox
Finish: Lost in the Super Bowl to the Seattle Seahawks 43-8

This is Peyton Manning’s record setting year where he trashed all the records with 5,477 yards and 55 TDs. Denver’s defense wasn’t as strong as it would be, but offensively it probably wouldn’t have mattered. They scored a crazy 606 points thoughout the regular season. Only three times did they score under 30 points in the regular season, and two of those were 27 and 28 point outings.

Unfortunately the Seattle Seahawks defense was waiting for them and Denver got smashed in the Super Bowl. Everything that could have went wrong for Denver did. I don’t think that takes away from just how dominant Denver was the rest of the season. Even in the post season they handled San Diego and New England with relative ease.

#12: 2007 #24 Team, Hendrick Motorsports (Jeff Gordon)

gordon07

Notable Statistics
Finished 2nd in the Nextel Cup Chase
2015 Statistics: 6 Wins (2nd), 21 Top 5s (1st), 30 Top 10s (1st)
Average Finish: 7.3 (1st)
Crew Chief: Steve Letarte

In 2007 we got the Jeff Gordon of old. Gordon dominated the NASCAR season that invoked memories of his late 90s dominance. Gordon has approximately a 300 point advantage before the Chase reset everything, and then Jimmie Johnson proceeded to win six of ten Chase races to steal the title from Gordon. Despite Johnson’s run, Gordon kept it competitive. Jeff Gordon would never be this dominant again. This was his best chance at a 5th Cup.

#11: 1990 Buffalo Bills

bill90

Notable Statistics
Record: 13-3 (2nd in NFL)
Won AFC East
NFL Ranks: 1st in Points, 6th in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith (Defensive Player of the Year), Andre Reed
Head Coach: Marv Levy
Finish: Lost in the Super Bowl to the New York Giants 20-19

The first of the four falls of Buffalo might have been the best. Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas made up a great one-two punch that would lead the Bills to four straight Super Bowl berths, and Bruce Smith was the premier Defensive Player of his era. Unfortunately for the Bills the New York Giants had a great gameplan that shut down the Bills offense. Despite this, Buffalo still had a chance to win it…but Scott Norwood famously missed “wide right”.

To get an idea how good this Bills team was, they took out Marino and the Dolphins in the Divisional Round but dropping 44, then kick the crap out of the Raiders 51-3 in the AFC Title game. The 1990 Bills were really good.

#10: 1997 Green Bay Packers

24 Aug 1998: Defensive tackle Santana Dotson #71 of the Green Bay Packers faces quarterback John Elway #7 of the Denver Broncos during the pre-season game at the Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Packers 34-31. Mandatory Cre

Notable Statistics
Record: 13-3 (1st in NFL)
Won NFC Central
NFL Ranks: 2nd in Points, 5th in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Brett Favre (MVP), Dorsey Levens, Antonio Freeman, Robert Brooks, Mark Chmura, Reggie White, LeRoy Butler
Head Coach: Mike Holmgren
Finish: Lost in the Super Bowl to the Denver Broncos 31-24

The Packers had avoided Denver in the Super Bowl prior as Denver had been upset by Jacksonville in the Divisional round. This time Denver had to come out of the Wildcard round to get to the big game and they did. Waiting for them were the defending Super Bowl Champions and three time MVP Brett Favre. The Packers just completed dispatching one of the powerhouse NFC teams of the last 15+ years in the 49ers. Denver was a big underdog here.

Green Bay couldn’t stop Terrell Davis. Hell, almost no one could. Davis destroyed the Packers for 157 rushing yards. While the Packers were in the game the whole way, Denver just did enough to keep their one score lead and win. If the 1997 Packers had one Achilles’ Heel it was that they at times struggled to contain the rush. And that’s how Denver won. The mid-90s championship level Packer teams came to a close as they didn’t get out of the Wildcard Round in 1998.

#9: 1995-1996 Detroit Red Wings

redwings96

Notable Statistics
Record: 62-13-7, 131 Points (1st in NHL, 2nd All-Time)
Won Central Division
NHL Ranks: Goals 3rd, Goals Against 1st
Notable Players: Sergei Federov, Steve Yzerman, Paul Coffey, Chris Osgood, Mke Vernon
Head Coach: Scotty Bowman
Finish: Lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Colorado Avalanche in 6.

On this list strictly because 131 points in a hockey season is a hell of a lot of points. Both the Red Wings and Avalanche were stacked at this point so despite the big point differential it wasn’t that crazy that Colorado could beat them.

Like the ’96 Broncos, the Red Wings would win the next two Championships, showing that this is a great team. They’d be a title contender in the NHL pretty much for the next 20 years too.

#8: 2006-2007 Dallas Mavericks

mavericks07

Notable Statistics
Record: 67-15 (1st in NBA)
Won Southwest Division
NFL Ranks: 2nd in Offensive Rating, 5th in Defensive Rating
Notable Players: Dirk Nowitzki (MVP), Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Devin Harris
Head Coach: Avery Johnson
Finish: Lost in the First Round to the Golden State Warriors in 6.

There was proof that this Dallas Mavericks team was good: they were close to winning the NBA Title the previous year but only lost the Finals because Wade and perhaps the referees. Still, from an advanced metrics standpoint Nowitzki was unstoppable in 2007. It seemed that at worst, Dallas would have a tough series against Phoenix or San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals to get back to the Finals. But Dallas had every reason to be confident as they had beaten both of those teams in 2006.

What happened was absolutely shocking. The #8th seeded Warriors did whatever they wanted to Dallas and Nowitzki was shut down. Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson hit ridiculous shot after ridiculous shot. Don Nelson, the previous coach of the Mavericks, seemed to have the secrets for stopping Nowitzki. I have little doubt Dallas would have at least lost a tough series to San Antonio or Phoenix had they gotten by Golden State, and really Dallas might have just won the title there. Crazy match-up led to a crazy upset.

#7: 2011 Philadelphia Phillies

phillies11

Notable Statistics
Record: 102-60 (1st in NL)
Won NL East
Led NL in ERA
Notable Players: Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt
Manager: Charlie Manuel
Finish: Lost Divisional Series to St. Louis Cardinals in 5.

While the 2010 Phillies could have been on here, the 2011 version gets the nod because of the Four Aces. Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt? That’s one of the best pitching staffs in baseball history. While Oswalt wasn’t great, fifth starter Vance Worley was and the Phillies led the NL by ERA by a substantial margin. Plus, it isn’t like they were weak hitting the ball as they had Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the hitting side as well.

Unfortunately the Cardinals surprised them in the opening round, which included a masterful three hitter from Dan Carpenter in the deciding Game 5.

#6: 1998 Minnesota Vikings

vikings98

Notable Statistics
Record: 15-1 (1st in NFL)
Won NFC Central
NFL Ranks: 1nd in Points, 6th in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Randall Cunningham, Randy Moss, John Randle, Cris Carter, Robert Smith, Ed McDaniel, Gary Anderson, Robert Smith
Head Coach: Dennis Green
Finish: Lost in the NFC Championship Game to the Atlanta Falcons 30-27

Minnesota had a fearsome defensive line (Randle, McDaniel), a quarterback that dipped into the fountain of youth and returned to a near MVP form he once had in the early 90s (Cunningham), a 1,100 yard back (Smith), a perfect (or near-perfect, we will get to that) field goal kicker (Anderson), a rookie WR who only fell in the draft due to attitude concerns…only he’s turned out to arguably be the most dynamic WR ever (Moss). How could this team lose? They were 3 points away from a perfect regular season.

The Atlanta Falcons were no joke though, being 14-2 themselves and finishing off the Steve Young era in San Francisco. Chris Chandler played the game of his life. And still, Minnesota had Atlanta beat. Minnesota was up 7 and a Gary Anderson FG would put Atlanta away. Anderson missed. With John Randle injured on the sidelines Atlanta tied the game at 27 then won in overtime. Even as a 10 year old kid I remember being shocked at that outcome. I recommend the Missing Rings documentary about them.

#5: 2008-2009 Boston Celtics

celtics09

Notable Statistics
Record: 62-20 (3rd in NBA)
Won Atlantic Division
NFL Ranks: 2nd in Offensive Rating, 6th in Defensive Rating
Notable Players: Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce
Head Coach: Doc Rivers
Finish: Lost in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals to the Orlando Magic in 6.

At first it seems like the 08-09 Cavs should be on here, but truthfully I don’t find that to be a great team. I find that to be a great player carrying a pretty bad team to insane heights.

What’s forgotten about the Celtics is that Kevin Garnett was injured and missed the entire playoffs. Garnett was still one of the most important defensive players of his generation as his presence alone allowed Boston to play at an elite level. Boston started the season 27-2, which in itself was insane. They slowed down throughout the rest of the year and it seemed age was catching up a little bit. But then Garnett had to sit out the playoffs. Boston still beat a Chicago team that seemed determined to do every single thing they could to win. They took Orlando to seven games despite big trouble trying to guard Dwight Howard inside without Garnett to help. Rajon Rondo went from the Big 3 + Rondo to arguably the best player for the Celtics. If Garnett’s there, Boston probably goes to the Finals again (sorry Cleveland). Remember, the starting five of Perkins-Garnett-Pierce-Allen-Rondo never lost a playoff series where all five played each game, and they proved that by making the Finals in 2010 (Perkins got hurt and didn’t play Game 7 of the Finals), beating both Cleveland and Orlando.

#4: 1990 San Francisco 49ers

49ers90

Notable Statistics
Record: 14-2 (1st in NFL)
Won NFC West
NFL Ranks: 8th in Points, 2nd in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Joe Montana (MVP), Jerry Rice, Ronnie Lott, Charles Haley
Head Coach: George Seifert
Finish: Lost in the NFC Championship Game to the Giants 15-13

Everyone talks about the 1990 Bills losing in the Super Bowl (which is even on this list), but the 1990 49ers were a 14-2 juggernaut looking for their third straight Super Bowl. Led by MVP Joe Montana, it looked like nothing was going to stop the Niners from getting it done. The Giants hit five field goals and slowed Montana and the Niners enough to pull it off in Candlestick Park. Give Parcells and Belichick a lot of credit, holding Montana to 13 and Kelly to 19 was no small task.

We were that close to having a team win three straight Super Bowls.

#3: 2001 Seattle Mariners

mariners01

Notable Statistics
Record: 116-46 (1st in AL)
Won AL West
Led AL In BA, Hits, ERA
Notable Players: Brett Boone, Ichiro Suzuki (MVP, ROTY), John Olerud, Freddy Garcia, Edgar Martinez
Manager: Lou Pinella
Finish: Lost ALCS to the New York Yankees in 5.

The record itself was staggering. The Yankees though did a great job of shutting Ichiro down (4 for 18) and the Mariners couldn’t get by the more experience Yankee team. Perhaps it’s unlucky for Seattle that they ran into the Yankee dynasty, but 116 wins is a number that’s tough to overlook. They ended up with eight All-Stars that year. It’s kind of incredible that they lost.

#2: 2012-2013 San Antonio Spurs

during Game Five of the 2013 NBA Finals at the AT&T Center on June 16, 2013 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.

Notable Statistics
Record: 58-24 (3rd in NBA)
Won Southwest Division
NFL Ranks: 7th in Offensive Rating, 3rd in Defensive Rating
Notable Players: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard
Head Coach: Gregg Popovich
Finish: Lost in the NBA Finals to the Miami Heat in 7.

Don’t let the record fool you, this is the best NBA team to not win the title. After steamrolling through the NBA playoffs (only a still young Steph Curry led Warriors team won any games) in a tough Western Conference with a record of 12-2, the Spurs went up against the PEAK of LeBron James.

You know how hard it is to beat one of the seven greatest basketball players of all time at his peak? LeBron had an incredible season that by advanced metrics even surpassed Michael Jordan’s best season. The Heat during the year had a shot at beating the Lakers’ 33 game win streak. There was no question LeBron James was the best basketball player in the world. He had two elite level players with him too: Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. The Heat were the defending NBA Champions.

The Spurs probably came the closest to winning the NBA Title than any team ever without actually winning it. Game 6 the Spurs had a five point lead with 28 seconds to go. LeBron knocked down a three to bring it to two. The Spurs made one free throw, which led to Ray Allen hitting one of greatest shots in NBA history, a three from the corner to tie it up. Miami prevailed in overtime. From there it took a masterful performance from LeBron, a 37-12-4, to win the title from the Spurs. THAT’s what it took to beat these guys. The next year LeBron regressed slightly, Wade wasn’t the same and Kawhi Leonard improved and the Spurs easily won the title.

#1: 2007 New England Patriots

patriots07

Notable Statistics
Record: 16-0 (1st in NFL)
Only 16-0 Regular Season in NFL History
Won AFC East
NFL Ranks: 1st in Points, 4th in Points Allowed
Notable Players: Tom Brady (MVP), Randy Moss, Mike Vrabel, Vince Wilfork, Asante Samuel
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Finish: Lost in the Super Bowl to the New York Giants 17-14

The final tally on the New England Patriots 2007 season will forever read 18-1. Somehow Eli Manning escaped a for sure sack. Somehow David Tyree caught the ball on his helmet. Somehow The Patriots, with Brady throwing for 50 TDs that season, 23 of them to arguably to the greatest receiver of all time in his prime, had only managed 14 points. Somehow, somehow, somehow, the Giants upset the Patriots.

With all the spygate stuff out there the Patriots had been looking for blood all season. They routinely ran up the score and no one could really stop them. Only twice did they have scares: Baltimore nearly upset them and the Giants played them tough Week 17. In fact, it was that Giants game that allegedly gave them the confidence and momentum that got them through the playoffs as well. New England was so close to perfection, and instead ended up as the greatest team to not win the title.

Football

NFL 2016 Playoff Predictions! Wildcard Round (And A Look Back At the Season Predictions)

Let’s look back at our Season Predictions to see how we did! Actual records are in parentheses.

NFC East

Giants: 11-5 (6-10)
Cowboys: 10-6 (4-12)
Eagles 9-7 (7-9)
Redskins 6-10 (9-7)

Man was this division bad. Washington actually pulled it off at 9-7. Tony Romo got hurt and that was that for Dallas, and Tom Coughlin and Chip Kelly lost their jobs.

NFC North

Vikings: 11-5 (11-5)
Packers: 11-5 (10-6)
Lions: 8-8 (7-9)
Bears: 7-9 (6-10)

Pretty much nailed this division as I was only a game off with Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago (but we got the order correct). I knew Minnesota would be better.

NFC South

Panthers: 10-6 (15-1)
Saints: 8-8 (7-9)
Falcons: 7-9 (8-8)
Buccaneers: 4-12 (6-10)

Close with this one too, although Carolina did a lot better than 10-6. Atlanta started super hot then did as the Falcons do and faded when it mattered.

NFC West

Seahawks: 12-4 (10-6)
Rams: 6-10 (7-9)
Cardinals: 5-11 (13-3)
49ers: 4-12 (5-11)

Carson Palmer at 35 returned from his injured ACL as a MVP candidate, so I really missed there. Everything else played out normally.

AFC East

Patriots: 12-4 (12-4)
Bills: 9-7 (8-8)
Dolphins: 7-9 (6-10)
Jets: 6-10 (10-6)

Perhaps I should have had more confidence in my Jets despite that they blew a playoff opportunity at the end. Despite the good records this division feels weaker that it looks.

AFC North

Ravens: 11-5 (5-11)
Steelers: 9-7 (10-6)
Bengals: 6-10 (12-4)
Browns: 3-13 (3-13)

Really underrated the Bengals here. I thought they’d fall off after season after season of an early round playoff exit, but that didn’t happen at all. I also thought Baltimore due to good coaching would get back on track, but injuries never let them have a chance (they didn’t seem that great when healthy either).

AFC South

Colts: 12-4 (8-8)
Texans: 6-10 (9-7)
Titans: 5-11 (3-13)
Jaguars: 3-13 (5-11)

I don’t even know what happened to the Colts, but it’s clear the team needs to build around Andrew Luck (although they somehow won more games with Matt Hasselbeck. Weird season.). Houston basically did the same thing as last year but this time it won them the division.

AFC West

Chiefs: 11-5 (11-5)
Chargers: 11-5 (4-12)
Broncos: 10-6 (12-4)
Raiders: 6-10 (7-9)

I almost got the story right for this division. It did look like Denver’s QB woes and change in coaching philosophy was going to coast them the division, only they pulled it off in the very last game. I absolutely missed on the Chargers here.

For the record, Cam Newton should be the league MVP. If that wasn’t obvious.

Ok, Wildcard predictions! We went 9-2 last year so matching that would be an accomplishment!

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

First, an odd note about all the Wildcard games this season. All the road teams are arguably better. How crazy is that?

Kansas City has been the hottest team in the league really, winning 10 straight games to get to the playoffs. They beat Houston Week 1 in Houston for whatever that’s worth. The KC defense should theoretically eat Brian Hoyer…or worse, if Hoyer goes down again Brandon Weeden…alive. Andy Reid’s known to make some playoff mistakes and usually his team (or the Chiefs historically for some reason) shouldn’t be trusted in the playoffs. But I mean, we’re one bad hit away from Brandon Weeden here!

The Texans’ best chance is that they shut down that 5-20 yard passing zone (which they do well, apparently) and J.J. Watt harasses Alex Smith all day. That’s possible! Too bad Kansas City probably only needs about 20 points to win this one.

Chiefs 20, Texans 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) @ Cinncinati Bengals (12-4)

So how much does Andy Dalton matter here? Even though the Steelers beat an A.J. McCarron-led Bengals team in Week 14, it wasn’t like McCarron was awful there or Ben Roethlisberger was all that great. And while McCarron hasn’t been amazing he’s been fine not taking chances and not turning the ball over. Did you know the Steelers defense thrives on takeaways? If McCarron plays safe and Jeremy Hill has a big game on the ground, it should be tough for Pittsburgh play well defensively. This is the style of attack I think we’ll see from the Bengals considering we’re getting a zero degree game.

Still, Big Ben could win this game with some big plays on his own. I think the weather conditions and whether or not Martavis Bryant wakes up will be the best chance for Pittsburgh. But I don’t think it’ll be enough. DeAngelo Williams going down left Pittsburgh with pure hopelessness on the ground and in those freezing games sometimes that matters. That, being on the road and Big Ben with only a 1:3 TD:INT ratio against the Bengals this year are all big enough factors that should hold back Pittsburgh.

Plus, it’s not like a questionable QB never beat the Steelers in the playoffs recently. I had to get a Tim Tebow reference in there somehow.

Bengals 20, Steelers 18

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

Speaking of freezing games, this may rival the coldest playoff game in history or something close. And while I like Teddy Bridgewater more than most, I think he’s getting eaten alive here once Seattle slows down Adrian Peterson. Seattle, easily the hottest team in the league right now, is going to get beat by Bridgewater in -7 degree weather after they stack the box against Peterson (this is what Kam Chancellor’s for). Not going to happen.

And Seattle gets Beast Mode back.

Vikings one hope: the Rams always seem to beat Washington and did so in Week 16…and that’s like the poor man’s Vikings right?

Seahawks 21, Vikings 3

Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Washington Redskins (9-7)

What the heck happened to the Green Bay Packers. Injuries to Jordy Nelson and Sam Shields just killed them on both sides of the ball down the stretch, eh. The Shields one matters here as this should be a shootout now.

Crazy stat: Kirk Cousins actually had just as good a season as Aaron Rodgers. 31 TD, 8 INT, 3,821 Yards, 6.7 YPA, 60% Completion for Rodgers this year. Cousins went for 29 TD, 11 INT, 4,166 Yards, 7.7 YPA, 70% Completion. How crazy is that. Of course, Rodgers did this will most of his main weapons down or falling apart. So both of these teams will score a lot this weekend, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this but I’m going to ride Cousins and the Redskins here. The Packers just looked bad the last two months. They lost to Detroit once, beat them a 2nd time because of some crazy Hail Mary, lost to the Bears and are coming off getting spanked by Arizona and losing the division to Minnesota in Green Bay. Sure, Washington hasn’t beaten anyone significant this year, but I really like how they played down the stretch to win their division and make the playoffs. It’s rare that I go with the momentum pick, but Green Bay just doesn’t look good.

Redskins 35, Packers 30

 

Football

2015 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2015 NFL Season! For a few years parity has actually been escaping the NFL although no one has seemed to notice or care. The NFL is more popular than ever and if recent events involving Commissioner Roger Goodell doesn’t dent that popularity than nothing will. Back to the parity point, for years many claimed that parity, that any team could win and perhaps go to the Super Bowl any year, was a big reason for the NFL’s popularity. Only the last three years have shown otherwise. The AFC Title game for the past four years have been Patriots-Ravens (2012 postseason), Patriots-Ravens again (2013), Patriots-Broncos (2014) and Patriots-Colts (2015). On the NFC side it has been 49ers-Giants (2012), 49ers-Falcons (2013), 49ers-Seahawks (2014) and Seahawks-Packers (2015). It isn’t even as if the Packers and Colts or even Giants were new to this either. So while another team may surprisingly win the division or even sneak into the Conference Title game, the days of the surprising 1999 Rams or 2003 Panthers seem to be over. That’s fine, as it makes things easier to predict.

With that being said…RDT’s 2015 NFL Predictions.

NFC East

nflpredeli

Giants: 11-5
Cowboys: 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 6-10

It has been a few years since the Giants last surprised us with a Super Bowl run. While I don’t necessarily think a Super Bowl is in the cards this year this is the first time in a few years where I think the Giants aren’t being talked about enough (and I live in NY!). The Giants were a slightly better team than expected last year (7.5 Pythagorean Wins against 6 actual wins). With Odell Beckham giving Eli Manning his best weapon in his career, Eli just has to hope that whatever’s left of his offensive line can keep him protected. For two years now Eli’s O-Line has been decimated by injuries over the last couple of years and some of that lingers today. If he can get the ball out, Giants will have a chance on that side of the ball. The other thing going in the Giants’ favor is the absolute dysfunction of Washington and Philadelphia. The Redskins had their whole Robert Griffin III drama and now Kirk Cousins is starting, so that’s a mess waiting to happen. Philly has all the talent in the world, but Chip Kelly’s trade for, then lack of faith of, Sam Bradford sounds like a problem waiting to happen. I really think the ship has sailed on Kelly. What seemed revolutionary a couple of years ago now looks like a coach with too much roster power making crazy moves with a gimmick offense. I guess we’ll see. Dallas should be fine…they were arguably a play away from the NFC Title game last year…but I’ve been far past completely trusting Dallas and Tony Romo at this point.

NFC North

nflpredteddy

Vikings: 11-5
Packers: 11-5
Lions: 8-8
Bears: 7-9

It’s not just the return of Adrian Peterson, which may not even work out anyway (2,000 career caries), but that Minnesota is a young team that should only get better. They were 7-9 anyway without their best player. Part of that is Teddy Bridgewater and how well he played in his last six starts last year. According to Grantland, Teddy was 12 in QBR, completed 69% of his passes for 1,440 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTS. Best of all, it was an improvement over his first six starts. If Bridgewater improves and Peterson is still a monster, that’s suddenly a super dangerous combination. Green Bay is always going to be there as long as Aaron Rodgers plays quarterback, and him alone is enough to make Green Bay a Super Bowl contender (they almost got there last year). While they won’t fall that much, Detroit losing Ndamukong Suh is going to hurt too badly for them to be able to deal with Green Bay or Minnesota. Their offense should be fine unless Calvin Johnson regresses. The Bears should be okay, unless Jay Cutler is completely done.

NFC South

nflprednewton

Panthers: 10-6
Saints: 8-8
Falcons: 7-9
Buccaneers: 4-12

This division is still a mess and really any of the four teams can take it. I like Carolina because despite not being the most talented team, Coach Ron Rivera’s transformation into “Riverboat Ron” (leading to taking chances on 4th down and such) and Cam Newton’s play gives Carolina a shot to win any game. Atlanta may be more talented, and who knows, perhaps the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection will be unstoppable this year, but I’ve never truly believed in Matt Ryan as a top tier quarterback. He always seemed like the guy with every single weapon at his disposal (Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Michael Turner). Their defense was horrid last year as well. Atlanta’s just going to have to prove it to me. I also think I’m over the Saints. I love Drew Brees, but losing Graham is going to hurt and I think their peak is over. And let’s give Jameis Winston a year to see what he’s got first.

NFC West

nflpredsherman

Seahawks: 12-4
Rams: 6-10
Cardinals: 5-11
49ers: 4-12

Even though I think Seattle is slowly on the way down they could easily be just fine and their division is weak anyway. I can’t find a powerhouse in the NFC that’s going take the regular season crown away from them. The Rams are a fun choice I guess, but I’m not going to believe in Nick Foles at QB. While they upset Seattle last year and have a good defense I need to see more before I go in with them. The Cardinals are a prime example of a team to fall apart. Without Carson Palmer they couldn’t score a point, and now we’re getting back a 35 year old Palmer coming off a torn ACL. Palmer’s been done as a top tier QB for years and I think 2014 was just an outlier. Then again, perhaps Arizona just needs him to be merely average. We’ll find out. I assume two people retired from the 49ers as I was writing this. I’m not putting any stock whatsoever in them. You don’t drop Jim Harbaugh and get better.

I just can’t find a way to bet against Seattle making the Super Bowl again. Unless there’s a crazy Giants team (don’t rule this out…happens every few years apparently) or Aaron Rodgers really is the GOAT (don’t rule this out either, although losing Jordy Nelson makes it so much harder on him) I’m going to have to pick Seattle here. Even if they are getting hit with “The Disease of More”.

AFC East

nflpredbrady

Patriots: 12-4
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 6-10

An angry Patriots team is a scary Patriots team. While some key losses may seem to hurt them (Revis), you’re going to have to find a really good argument to convince me that New England isn’t going to make at least their fifth straight AFC Title game.  Remember how well Brady played after there were jokes that he was done and Jimmy Garoppolo was going to start? How did that turn out for the NFL? The Bills will be decent because Rex Ryan can get the best out of a smashmouth football team, but he’s still in the wrong era and Buffalo’s QB situation is appallingly bad. Miami seems to be a popular choice to surprise, but they have no secondary and Ryan Tannenhill is their quarterback. The Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick running their offense. So unless the defense wants to carry them like they did for Geno, it’s just not going to happen.

AFC North

nflpredflacco

Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 6-10
Browns: 3-13

The Ravens have some red flags…mainly their only legit WR is an aging Steve Smith and the running game looks like it has a lot to be desired. That’s okay though, their defense should carry them to at least the 9-7 range alone, and I’m more of a Joe Flacco fan than not at the moment. I think the Steelers are a bit weaker overall (and have a tough schedule…they play teams like the Colts where Baltimore doesn’t). The Bengals run of one and dones are going to end eventually, and until they move on from Andy Dalton I’m going to pick this season for that. You can’t help but feel bad for the Browns. Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel? Maybe Manziel figures it out. Don’t sleep on the Ravens though…you always have to give a real chance to well coached teams.

AFC South

nflpredluck

Colts: 12-4
Texans: 6-10
Titans: 5-11
Jaguars: 3-13

This is simple to figure out. The Jaguars are still a mess. Unless Mariotta is great right away the Titans will be bad once again, and the Texans somehow downgraded from Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (although it wouldn’t surprise me if J.J. Watt somehow won 10 games by himself at this point). That leaves the Andrew Luck Colts. I don’t think the Colts are as good as everyone says…they’re right now a popular Super Bowl pick. People are forgetting that the only reason the Colts got by Denver in the playoffs last year was because Peyton Manning was hurt. Otherwise you had a Denver-NE rematch going. Colts will be fine, Luck might be better (which is why their record doesn’t fall), but they’re still behind New England and Denver.

AFC West

nflpredcharles

Chiefs: 11-5
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 10-6
Raiders: 6-10

Put a big asterisk here, because we don’t know what Peyton Manning we are getting. Is he healthy? Is he still hurt from last year? I think that fear combined with the changes made coaching wise will hurt Denver a bit…although a 10-6 Broncos team can absolutely make the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs are a stereotypical Andy Reid team. They’ll probably win the division and lose in the opening round to Denver. I’ve always been a bit of a Philip Rivers fan and thought he played well the last two years. I think this may be San Diego’s last shot at anything. Remember last year they started 5-1 and just had a rough schedule down the stretch.

Ultimately I see a rematch in the Super Bowl. While there are some teams that I think can threaten Seattle and New England, I feel there are too many flaws out there for them to overcome their weaknesses. I think Seattle wins this time though.