First let’s look at our sixteen Chase drivers.

1. Jimmie Johnson (4 W, 11 T5, 17 T10): It is impossible to ever count out Jimmie Johnson in any Chase scenario and to me, he’s probably the second favorite this year. Jimmie has 25 career Chase wins in the 11 years the Chase has been run. That’s more than double 2nd place (Tony Stewart, 11). Jimmie won at Texas, Dover and Kansas this year and all three are Chase races.

2. Kyle Busch (4 W, 6 T5, 9 T10): Kyle put up those statistics in merely 15 starts, so you can argue he’s in fact been the best driver on the circuit this year. Here’s why I’m not counting Kyle as a Championship contender just yet: He’s historically been a disappointment come Chase time. He has one victory in the Chase and that happened early in his career when he wasn’t a Chase participant. He’s had huge regular seasons before and came up way short (like in 2008). Prove it to me Kyle.

3. Matt Kenseth (4 W, 10 T5, 16 T10): The class of the Gibbs cars that on paper look to be dominating this season. Kenseth got hot late this season and is obviously a contender…but unlike Johnson all of his victories came at tracks that aren’t in the Chase. I wouldn’t count him out though.

4. Joey Logano (3 W, 16 T5, 20 T10): Sliced Bread just keeps getting better, posting a ridiculous a great 8.6 average finish this season. Logano is right up there with Johnson for me in terms of being the second favorite. He almost won this thing last year and won at New Hampshire and Kansas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the final four again.

5. Kevin Harvick (2 W, 18 T5, 22 T10): Easily the favorite. Has twelve top 2 finishes this season, which is insane. Harvick’s season so far has reflected the poor man’s version of Jeff Gordon’s 1998 season. He had three wins in the Chase alone last year, including the last two races. Make no mistake, he’s the driver to beat.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2 W, 12 T5, 17 T10): A real dark horse to win it all this year. He has Talladega where he’s the favorite to win and is a cut off race. He won the Martinsville race after he was eliminated last year. He’s won at Texas and Phoenix in his career. I can’t say he’s a true contender though and he’s been historically subpar at Homestead though.

7. Kurt Busch (2 W, 8 T5, 14 T10): Probably a favorite to land somewhere in the 5th through 8th range. He’s had hot streaks in the late races before, but that was a long time ago.

8. Carl Edwards (2 W, 3 T5, 9 T10): Picked up a fuel mileage win at Charlotte that no one really took seriously, but then proved critics wrong with his win at Darlington. Nonetheless, he’ll need to be more consistent to have a shot at Homestead. I don’t see it.

9. Brad Keselowski (1 W, 6 T5, 18 T10): Keselowski seems like the guy who knows what he has to do in order to advance in this thing…I was probably the only fan who thought the way he drove last year was the right way to do it. He’s been more consistent this year, and perhaps maybe that’s his plan to get to the end? We’ll see.

10. Martin Truex Jr. (1 W, 7 T5, 17 T10): Kudos to Truex for having what seems to be the best season of his career. He peaked way too early with his top 10 streak and has fallen apart since then. My pick for the driver to have a Ryan Newman in 2014 type run.

11. Denny Hamlin (1 W, 9 T5, 13 T10): Another darkhorse to win it all. Hamlin’s had strong Chase runs before and was in the final four last year. As for his torn ACL, I recall him winning a few years ago with a broken leg or something, no? Always a threat at Martinsville (won there in the Spring), to which if he’s alive and wins there he’ll be in the final 4 again.

12. Jamie McMurray (2 T5, 7 T10): Finally! McMurray makes his first Chase. And while I’m counting him out as his resume is a good reason we need to slightly limit the Chase, McMurray does have an outside chance of doing something here. He absolutely can win Talladega (won there in 2009 and 2013). So we’ll see.

13. Jeff Gordon (3 T5, 13 T10): The sentimental favorite, and of course you can’t count out someone like Jeff Gordon, but it will be an uphill climb for him. Nonetheless he’s a threat to win everywhere and with solid finishes he could find himself at the end.

14. Ryan Newman (4 T5, 12 T10): Ultimately his big point penalty didn’t mean anything. I guess he could “Newman” the Chase again. He finished 2nd at Homestead last year so if he somehow gets there he has a legit shot to win it all.

15. Paul Menard (2 T5, 4 T10): Let’s be clear, if Menard wins the format needs to be revamped again.

16. Clint Bowyer ( 2 T5, 11 T10): Has the talent to make something happen in the Chase. Definitely a Talladega threat. Not sure how much his team has left though.

This is how I see the Chase breaking down.

Harvick makes a point and wins Chicagoland, Logano takes New Hampshire and Kurt Busch proves he’s a contender and wins Dover. He lose Menard, McMurray, Bowyer and Edwards. Jeff Gordon shows he’s not done and wins Charlotte, Kansas goes to Johnson and McMurray wins Talladega, although it’s too late for him. We lose Newman, Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Keselowski, who never got it going. Dale Jr. repeats at Martinsville, Johnson wins at Texas and Harvick takes Phoenix. Gordon, Kenseth, Kurt Busch and Truex Jr. go out. This leaves Dale Jr., Johnson, Logano and Harvick. Harvick outright wins again, taking home a 2nd straight title while Logano finishes in the top 5 (and 2nd in the standings), Johnson ends up about 10th and Dale Jr. ends up in the 20s.

It probably won’t shake out this way…but that’s how I’m calling it! Let’s hope we get an entertaining Chase!