We’ve just completed one of the better seasons in NBA storylines. For the first time in what seems like a while, the NBA Playoffs are moderately unpredictable. There are two teams in the East with a realistic chance of making the Finals, then any one of five (sorry Portland) can do the same. I could even think of conceivable longshot scenarios for the remaining three teams in the West. We’ve had MVP caliber seasons from four different players (Westbrook, Harden, Curry and Davis), and a semi-MVP season (from LeBron). It’s going to be a fun playoffs and we’re just going to dive into round 1 here.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)
It’s really hard to make the case for the Pelicans here. Let’s try. Anthony Davis is ridiculous. Anthony Davis is incredible. Anthony Davis is a once in a lifetime talent. Anthony Davis carried a team with three inefficient overrated players (Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday) to the 8th seed in a loaded Western Conference. And his team beat out a team with the possessed Russell Westbrook to get that spot. It’s quite impressive. Davis just put up a PER that’s only been surpassed by Wilt, Jordan and LeBron. Unfortunately, because of his supporting cast he may just be in a similar situation as David Robinson in the early-90s.
The Warriors are too deep and too good at everything. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson just destroyed the league from the guard positions. Curry, the likely MVP of the league, was the only player this season to boast a WS/48 that was higher than Davis’ this year. The Warriors are also the best defensive team in the league, thanks to Andrew Bogut (fun fact: I knew right there that Bogut for Monta Ellis a few seasons ago was an absolutely steal for the Warriors) and Draymond Green. The Warriors are so good they willing bench David Lee, someone who could still be a 17-9 guy in the league. Then there is this gem from Bill Simmons: The Warriors are one of seven teams to have a .800 winning percentage and a points differential of plus-10. The other six? ’71 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92 Bulls, ’96 Bulls, ’97 Bulls and ’08 Celtics. Two points to note from that. One: That’s three Michael Jordan teams, which is ridiculous. And two: all six of those teams won the title. All of them. It’s going to be hard to not pick the Warriors here.
Davis is worth a win with some crazy 35-17-6-3-3 game or something. But Golden State just isn’t losing here.
Warriors in 5
#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
A very interesting match-up that is a lot closer than it seems.
There are some interesting parallels here. Both the Rockets and Mavericks made controversial mid-season moves, and neither really worked out. Rajon Rondo has feuded with Rick Carlisle and hasn’t fit in with Monta Ellis in the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Smith brought his normal inefficient offense to Houston and didn’t provide the help the injured Dwight Howard and James Harden needed. Both teams have a defensive monster at center…Howard for Houston and Tyson Chandler for Dallas, although one of those isn’t as good as he once was. Both Carlisle and Kevin McHale, the two head coaches, were Celtics. Both teams are from Texas. Ok I’m nitpicking now.
Here’s the thing. The James Harden-led Rockets have yet to win a playoff series. The main pieces of the Mavericks: Carlisle as a coach, Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler have all won the title before, and three of those did it in Dallas. Dallas proved to be a tough out (the only one) last year against San Antonio because they have guys who knows that it takes to get the job done in the playoffs.
When you really look at it, how do the Rockets win this series? They are virtually a one man offensive team. The Mavericks are built to stop those types of teams with Chandler in the middle. Dallas played Houston very tough this season as well: Houston won on the road by 7 and at home by 5 and 3. Dallas won one game in Dallas by 11. If Nowitzki gets into his prime form, and Ellis doesn’t shoot them out of games, I don’t know if Houston can contain Dallas.
The problem is Nowitzki regress enough this season to cause concern about taking over a playoff series. I don’t believe in Monta Ellis, and I still don’t see the Rondo fit. Chandler will cause all kinds of problems for Harden, but I don’t think Dallas will be able to pull it out. If this was last year’s Nowitzki, I’d pick them.
Rockets in 7.
#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. #6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)
Poor Chris Paul. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this script before. Gregg Popovich just knows how to create defensive schemes that limit Paul. In 2008 the Spurs beat Paul’s great Hornets team in a New Orleans. In 2012 the Spurs swept Paul’s Clippers. This is one of those I need to see it happen situations before I can take the Clippers.
The other part of this equation: the Spurs are basketball’s best team this last one-eighth of the season. The ageless Tim Duncan has been on top of his game. Kawhi Leonard is an elite defender…basically the new age Bruce Bowen only with a crazy offensive game to go with it…and perhaps a top 20 player in the league right now. Tony Parker is peaking. Everything is going right for the Spurs.
Maybe this is poor analysis, but I need to see it from the Clippers before I pick them against San Antonio. Great Chris Paul and Blake Griffin seasons be damned.
Spurs in 6
#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)
Portland just hasn’t been the same since LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his hand and Wes Mathews was out for the season. Portland is merely 19-19 in their last 38 games and only got the 4th seed due to the NBA’s weird seeding rules for division champs.
It doesn’t help Portland that the Grizzlies are one of the toughest defense teams out there. Marc Gasol is a former defensive player of the year, Tony Allen is always a threat to win the award and Mike Conley is as tough as he comes. There’s the general overall toughness of Zach Randolph too.
Portland is just trending downward. Memphis is just a tough team to beat and Portland’s injuries just makes this way too tough. Damian Lillard needs to have the series of his life for Portland to have chance here. Memphis has home court too, although that won’t even come into play here.
Grizzles in 4.
Eastern Conference
#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22) vs. #8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)
The Nets are the sneaky hot team that might get some “upset special” calls. I thought that a bit too, but then that meant I was relying on Deron Williams (washed up at 30 apparently, overrated to begin with), Joe Johnson (anyone notice the Hawks have had a great run since Johnson left them?) and Brook Lopez (always a threat to go back to a good offensive player who somehow can’t rebound despite being 7 foot). The Nets are the 2004 New York Knicks. Congrats.
I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, and I think they may be one of the worst 60 win teams ever, but I can get into that when they are playing the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Until then, let’s just go with the obvious and take the Hawks here.
Hawks in 4.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42)
Another easy call here. The Celtics have been super hot and 29-12 in the last half of the season. Isaiah Thomas has been a key asset and the Celtics are just gelling. Brad Stevens has proven to be a great coach.
The Cavs started 19-20. They are 34-10 since. LeBron is in near peak form, which really might be better than anyone else in the league still. Kyrie Irving has improved leaps and bounds. Kevin Love, while not at the level he once was, actually had a good season that no one realizes. Mozgov, Shumpert and JR have been great pieces.
I’ll give Boston one because Thomas might have a nice 30 pointer in there. But…yeah, not yet Boston. Not yet.
Cavs in 5
#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32) vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)
Jason Kidd deserves something for bringing the Bucks to the playoffs. But I mean, this should be as obvious as the other two series we’ve covered so far.
Sure the Bucks will play it tough. But they just don’t have the talent. Michael-Carter Williams is a fun…but probably bad player. Is The Greak Freak ready to have the series of his life? Even so, that may not be enough.
I expect the Bulls to really be tough this year. Pau Gasol provides that Championship experience. Mirotic is a great bench piece. Jimmy Butler is the best player on this team and is probably the front runner for Most Improved Player of the Year. The Bulls don’t need the old Derrick Rose to beat these Bucks.
Bulls in 5
#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36)
Paul Pierce gets to face the Raptors again in round 1!
No one outside of Toronto or Washington cares about this series. The Raptors are 12-16 in their last 28. The Wizards are 13-15 in their last 28. Not inspiring here. John Wall went from fun young player to overrated (as did Bradley Beal, really). Kyle Lowry went from underrated to irrelevant. For DeMar DeRozan, see Beal. The only player I really trust on either of these teams is Paul Pierce, which is pretty telling (I actually like Jonas as well for Toronto, so I’m lying here).
I’ll pick the Wizards though, because they have some playoff experience under their belt…they almost made the Conference Finals last year afterall…and Paul Pierce is the type of veteran that can help here. The Wizards are the best of the rest of the East (outside of the top 3), but that doesn’t mean they are any good. To be honest, it doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with.
But I need a reason to believe in Toronto and I don’t have one. At least I have one with Washington.
Wizards in 6