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Basketball

A Quick Preview of the 2018-2019 NBA Season

Yes, I know I am a day late. But hey, the NBA season began two weeks earlier! What can I do?

Eastern Conference

  1. Boston Celtics (60-22): As much as everyone wants to push the narrative that the East is wide open, the Celtics are far and away the best team in the Conference. Remember they almost went to the Finals missing Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Undervalued as the favorite in the Eastern Conference. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are only going to be better, and Al Horford is an experienced playoff banger who doesn’t have to face LeBron anymore.
  2. Philadelphia 76ers (53-29): Still the future of the East obviously. Still disappointed I picked them to beat Boston in the playoffs last year. They’ll need Markelle Fultz to figure things out to challenge Boston.
  3. Milwaukee Bucks (50-32): Hate to say it, but I think Giannis is leaving. But he’ll finish this season with Milwaukee and they’ll lose to Boston at some point, if not Philly. They only improvements will come from Giannis and Khris Middleton.
  4. Toronto Raptors (49-33): Following things that worry me about Toronto: Kawhi Leonard’s commitment to the team (and how healthy is he really?), Kyle Lowry and his disappointed with DeMar DeRozan being gone and a new head coach. Despite the talent upgrade this feels like another disappointment in Toronto.
  5. Indiana Pacers (48-34): Exciting team that looks quite good in the post PG era. Fully expect them to be in the mix again and wouldn’t shock me if they were better than this. I think a lack of a true stretch four will hinder them. Not sold on Tyreke Evans being a positive either.
  6. Washington Wizards (44-38): The Wizards are who they are. Although theoretically Dwight Howard should make them better, I think we’ve played that game enough to see how that works over the past few years.
  7. Miami Heat (42-40): Toughest one for me to judge because I feel like Jimmy Butler will end up here. Hassan Whiteside could always get it together I guess. A well coaches team that has just enough to be good but won’t bottom out.
  8. Detroit Pistons (36-46): The rest of the East is a bit of a mess. Detroit is not a well-structured team and every season I’m down about bad their spacing should be. And with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin in the frountcourt, that spacing should be worse than ever.
  9. Cleveland Cavaliers (34-48): I don’t expect Kevin Love to revert to his pre-Cavs self, but he should allow Cleveland to win some games. Don’t be surprised if he’s traded at the half-way point though.
  10. Charlotte Hornets (33-49): Sounds about right. Going to be weird seeing Tony Parker in a uniform that isn’t the San Antonio Spurs.
  11. Chicago Bulls (31-51): Jabari Parker is an interesting offensive addition, and Wendell Carter should be a decent piece. While Chicago seems like a team on the rise, I wonder about the money Zach LaVine just got though.
  12. Brooklyn Nets (30-52): Getting rid of Mozgov is a plus. Sad Jeremy Lin didn’t make it. Upcoming Free agency is huge for the Nets.
  13. Orlando Magic (27-55): A long way to go here. Aaron Gordon is pretty much the only exciting piece on this mess of a franchise.
  14. New York Knicks (25-57): I am truthfully ecstatic for the Knicks to be honest. Finally, a real rebuilding process! Only took 18 years.
  15. Atlanta Hawks (17-65): Another rebuild. If Doncic becomes the man though they would have set themselves back a bit.

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (63-19): The chemistry cracks are showing, but there’s way too much talent here to think they’ll fall off much. I think they get another ring in June, especially because…
  2. Houston Rockets (56-26): …the Rockets replaced Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute with Carmelo Anthony. That’s going to be quite the hit on the Rockets defense. Chris Paul isn’t getting younger either.
  3. Los Angeles Lakers (52-30): I kinda have to see LeBron fail before I drop a team led by him to an under 50 win prediction. Team is a bit of a mess to be honest (Rajon Rondo should not be starting over Lonzo Ball), so I expect a slow start. But it’ll fix itself by the end.
  4. Utah Jazz (51-31): Love the way this team is built, especially on defense, but unless Donovan Mitchell becomes a true big time scorer this is their ceiling.
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (50-32): They should be better without Carmelo Anthony’s inefficient offense gobbling up possessions, but Dennis Schroder isn’t anything to write home about either so it feels like a wash.
  6. New Orleans Pelicans (48-34): Anthony Davis should make a strong MVP candidate this season. West is just stacked. There’s just not much else here except Nikola Mirotic. Davis and Mirotic is a better combo than Davis and Cousins, for what it’s worth.
  7. San Antonio Spurs (47-35): Fun fact, there is one NBA team this season that has two players were on either All-1st or All-2nd NBA teams last season. And that team is the Spurs (Aldridge and DeRozan). They are practically adding DeRozan for free compared to last year (as Leonard barely played), so all this missed playoffs stuff is nuts. I actually wish I had some courage and ranked them higher.
  8. Portland Trail Blazers (46-36): I was a bit underwhelmed by how they finished last season, and losing Ed Davis isn’t a positive thing either.
  9. Denver Nuggets (43-39): Fun team that could break out. Jamal Murray might be a real keeper.
  10. Minnesota Timberwolves (41-41): What a mess. Jimmy Butler doesn’t want to be there and while I am a big fan of KAT, Wolves need Butler to be good. I think he ends up in Miami before the trade deadline.
  11. Dallas Mavericks (38-44): A bit under the radar. Dirk Nowitzki can still play at a decent level, and if he matches last season’s production that’s a solid role piece. DeAndre Jordan is a sneaky grab. Let’s see how far along Dennis Smith is, and if Luka is the real deal.
  12. Los Angeles Clippers (33-49): Not going to lie, I have no idea what happens here this season except they won’t make the playoffs. They could bottom out to 15-67 and I wouldn’t be surprised. I’ll guess Doc Rivers does what he can to win games and then leaves/gets fired (despite the contract extension).
  13. Memphis Grizzlies (32-50): Kudos to the Grizzlies for still going against the grain with the Mike Conley-Marc Gasol combo. If Conley stays healthy they should be a bit better than last year.
  14. Sacramento Kings (28-54): I like Fox and Bagley. Team is a disaster otherwise.
  15. Phoenix Suns (23-59): Devin Booker had more PPG than Suns’ wins last season. I know that the Suns want to win or something, but unless DeAndre Ayton is a monster right away, which I doubt, it isn’t happening.

Warriors over Celtics in 7 in the Finals. Boston is better than people are giving credit for.

Basketball

2017-2018 NBA Season Predictions

The Path to Warriors-Cavs IV? Sure it looks likely, but we’ll see. Sure was a crazy off-season.

Atlantic Division

Celtics: 53-29 (2)

Raptors: 46-36 (5)

Sixers: 30-52

Knicks: 26-56

Nets: 25-57

                Boston I think is pretty obvious for the top of the Atlantic (it was less obvious last year when I called it). Sure it may take time to integrate Hayward and Kyrie, and the defense overall has some holes losing Avery Bradley. But come on, it’s the East. Toronto is trying this new three pointers everywhere thing, which would be fine if they actually had good three point shooters. There’s enough talent there though to be in the thick of things again. I would love to give the Sixers a huge 2010 Thunder leap, but I’m sorry there is nothing that makes me think Joel Embiid can play anything resembling a full NBA schedule. Which is a shame, because he could be a difference maker. Knicks are thankfully past the Carmelo era and should be bad, but again wins are just going to appear in the East. A potential defensive disaster with Hardaway Jr. and Kanter too. The Nets should show some signs of life, and I’m sure if you ignore FG% D’Angelo Russell will be a fun fantasy guy, but we have a long way to go here.

Central Division

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)

Bucks: 49-33 (4)

Pistons: 38-44 (8)

Pacers: 32-50

Bulls: 21-61

                Maybe the Cavs actually fall behind the Bucks in the standings but once it becomes playoff time, it won’t matter. Giannis might just be the future, and the Bucks have a cool (and long) team otherwise. They might be the 18-19 team to be honest. Detroit is kind of a mess and unless Andre Drummond wants to become the star I thought he would be a few years ago I don’t see them really getting past this point (Reggie Jackson at one time was probably the most overrated player in the league). Like Milwaukee, Indiana has a future star on their hands in Turner, but once again we’re not there yet. Giving the Bulls 21 wins might be high. I’m calling it now though, Lauri Markkanen will at least be a solid player in this league and not a complete disaster.

Southeast Division

Wizards: 51-31 (3)

Hornets: 43-39 (6)

Heat: 42-40 (7)

Magic: 28-54

Hawks: 23-59

                Washington definitely has an outside shot at the Finals. They almost beat Boston, and if the Cavs aren’t ready with IT2 it could happen. The Wall+Beal combo is good, not great, but good in the Eastern Conference gets you far. The Hornets’ Steve Clifford is a very good coach and while Dwight will probably be the same cohesion destroyer he’s been since he left Orlando, his rim protection should help a lot. Miami was the hottest team in basketball somehow, finishing at 30-11. There’s some flukiness to that though, especially when you are relying on Dion Waiters as part of that equations. The Hawks join the Knicks, Nets and Bulls in the “jeeze these teams are bad” club for the East.

Northwest Division

Thunder: 54-28 (4)

Timberwolves: 50-32 (5)

Nuggets: 45-37 (6)

Trail Blazers: 43-39 (7)

Jazz: 37-45

                A real tough division here. I don’t even think OKC is guaranteed the top of the division. Westbrook-Carmelo-George is of course a sexy trio in name value, but I’m not sure how they are all supposed to work together on offense. Carmelo will probably be fine to be honest, finally in a role that makes sense (third best player on his team, potentially hot offensive option that can win games). If his ego is fine with that, then that works perfectly. Can George be a good off the ball weapon? We all know Westbrook will be handling at all times. The rest of the team is a dumpster fire though. Minnesota could be a crazy surprise if Jimmy Butler is the superstar he was turning into in Chicago. Butler, KAT, Wiggins, so much potential for a great season here. I could see them beating OKC in a playoff series too. Denver has some cool additions this season too, specifically Paul Millsap. Him and Jokic are an exciting front court that should have Denver’s offense at an elite level all season. Portland is kinda stuck where they are, with one really good guard, one good guard and a lot of pieces. I don’t know how they get better. Utah should be good defensively with Gobert, but I’m not sure where the offense is supposed to come from.

Pacific Division

Warriors: 69-13 (1)

Clippers: 40-42

Lakers: 38-44

Suns: 28-54

Kings: 27-55

                Obviously Golden State. There’s a lot of random hype about the Clippers, and I love the Danilo Gallinari addition, but come on now, you don’t drop Chris Paul and expect to be close to the level you were at before. Lakers have a lot of exciting young pieces and I think will surprise. Ball is probably going to be a fun offensive option in the passing game and I think Brandon Ingram will look a lot better. Brook Lopez, while flawed, is still a notable addition too. The Suns have Devin Booker so there’s that. The Kings have who I think can win Rookie of the Year in Fox…although who knows who’s playing how much in Sacramento. Apparently Vince Carter started some pre-season games. Vince Carter!

Southwest Division

Rockets: 62-20 (2)

Spurs: 59-23 (3)

Pelicans: 42-40 (8)

Mavericks: 39-43

Grizzlies: 36-46

                There’s no way you can sell me on a Mike D’Antoni team led by Chris Paul being bad. For all the talk that James Harden can’t play off the ball he was fine in Oklahoma City. Too bad they’ll probably lose to the Spurs in Round 2. Speaking of the Spurs, sure I have questions about LaMarcus Aldridge, but Leonard (my MVP last year) is there and he’s a destructive force at both ends of the floor. It’s not just that I don’t completely believe in the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins pairing (because of Cousins), but what they surround them with isn’t good. Jrue Holliday gets all the credit in the world for a fluke All-Star game appearance five years ago in a bad East. He’s not good. Dallas has nice young pieces (Smith and Noel) and the aging Dirk, but that’s not nearly enough. Expect Mike Conley and Marc Gasol to be on the trade block, because Memphis is a shell of its former self and I don’t see their old school style succeeding…although I said that last year.

                Warriors over Cavs in 5 again!

Basketball

2016-2017 NBA Predictions!

It’s finally time for some NBA basketball! Last season was historic for plenty of reasons as Golden State broke the 96 Bulls’ record for wins with 73…but fell to LeBron and the Cavs in the NBA Finals. Of course, for the city of Cleveland that was historic of itself. Other crazy stuff happened too…like Kevin Durant joining those Warriors and spurning the Oklahoma City Thunder (can we just make the late 90s Magic/2010s Thunder comparison documentary now). Dwyane Wade also switched teams to Chicago. The Knicks also built an alleged superteam, even though all of those guys peaked from 2010 through 2013. We also had one stacked retirement class in Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amar’e Stoudemire and Elton Brand. Sadly, Chris Bosh may be added to that if he isn’t cleared to compete. Sorry for the spoilers, but all of this is just going to lead to Warriors-Cavs III anyway. Yeah the NBA is predictable, but when that predictability gets toppled (like the Cavs beating the Warriors) those moments are incredible.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics forward Al Horford holds up a jersey during a media availability at the team's practice facility, Friday, July 8, 2016, in Waltham, Mass. Horford agreed to a four-year, $113 million deal with the Celtics as an unrestricted free agent, ending nearly ten years with the Atlanta Hawks. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Celtics: 51-31 (2)
Raptors: 42-40 (7)
Knicks: 41-41 (8)
76ers: 18-64
Nets: 13-69

Boston is correctly the off-season darling as they are a well coached team (President Stevens!), added Al Horford and already have a solid team overall. There are a lot of Cavs hangover-Celtics in the Finals predictions, but Boston will probably lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to Cleveland. Even though Toronto was a good team last year (and I didn’t even believe in them), the team will go as far as Kyle Lowry takes them and I don’t really know what to make of DeMar Derozan. I sense he’s that good stats guy who’s not really that great. The Knicks might have been a title contender in 2011, but Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah just isn’t going to make for a high profile offense at this point. They’ll have their nights for sure. But Noah has been one of the worst offensive centers in his last full season (and he was good at one time), and all he’s going to do it logjam the middle for Melo and Rose (and Brandon Jennings), none of whom are great outside shooters although Melo gets hot once in a while. The 76ers still have a long way to go and I sadly believe Embiid, great as he’s looked, has Greg Oden injury potential written all over him. The Nets are the laughing stock everyone predicted when they traded their future for old Paul Pierce and old Kevin Garnett.

Central Division

20117lebron

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)
Pacers: 49-33 (3)
Pistons: 45-37 (5)
Bulls: 40-42
Bucks: 29-53

Once again, there are a lot of “Cavalier hangover” articles out there, but they’ll get over it before the playoffs anyway. I mean this is a team that overcame a mid-season coaching change and beat the greatest regular season team ever. Yeah, maybe LeBron is slightly past his prime, but so was Jordan in the 2nd three-peat and that worked out fine. They are going to the Finals again. Paul George was great in his return season and I see no reason he won’t be better next year, and in the East that’s enough. They almost beat the Raptors in Round 1 afterall. Detroit is a team that I need to see get it done before I can put them higher, but Andre Drummond has best center in the league potential. He just needs to hit a free throw. Putting the Knicks over the Bulls might have been homerism from me…but Chicago has a lot of the same issues the Knicks have in regards to spacing, and it may actually be worse. They’ll miss Pau Gasol too. I know the Bucks have Giannis, but he seems more highlight reel worthy than actually leading to wins.

Southeast Division

Feb 11, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Milwaukee won 99-92. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Wizards: 45-37 (4)
Hawks: 43-39 (6)
Hornets: 33-49
Magic: 32-50
Heat: 31-51

What a mess of a division. I think it’s time for John Wall to put up or shut up. He has the talent to be an elite guy, but whether he will be is another question. The Hawks mainly dropped Horford for Dwight Howard. I think there’s some homerun upside here…but it’s probably leading to a small regression. Hornets are one of the teams I don’t believe in this year. Kemba Walker had a good year and all, but just look at that roster. I think it falls apart. Serge Ibaka isn’t going to lead to wins for a Magic team with no identity. The Heat are a mess. Goran Dragic gets another chance I guess to make something happen and return to All-NBA 3rd Team form, but Hassan Whiteside is either really good or deceptively bad, Chris Bosh is gone and I think Miami has to start from scratch.

Northwest Division

2017westbrook

Thunder: 50-32 (4)
Utah Jazz: 49-33 (5)
Timberwolves: 48-34 (6)
Trail Blazers: 42-40
Nuggets: 28-54

The Thunder will still be there because Russell Westbrook is a Top 5 guy. Victor Oladipo may find a new lease on life playing with him too. And you know Westbrook is determined to show he can do it without Durant. Utah’s put all the pieces together over the last five years and it should finally show something. Minnesota has Tom Thibodeau as coach and an exciting young core led by KAT. They remind me of the 09-10 Thunder. Portland looked good thanks to a big year from Lillard and big improvement from CJ McCollum, but all the pieces fell in place perfectly last year for them just to end up at 44-38 (bad Anthony Davis year, no Wolves, Rockets falling apart). The Nuggets are just there and that’s the best way to describe them at the moment.

Pacific Division

2017warriors

Warriors: 64-18 (1)
Clippers: 52-30 (3)
Kings: 40-42
Lakers: 36-46
Suns: 30-52

I was absolutely wrong about how this division would shake out last year. This year it’s clear the Warriors will be at the top adding Kevin Durant, and they’ll settle for a nice 60+ win season while probably resting key guys down the stretch. That’s because the Clippers have peaked (and really peaked in the 14-15 season). While Blake Griffin should be amazing now and Chris Paul is still the best pure point guard, the chemistry isn’t there anymore and all the Blake trade rumors from last year has to take its toll. I think it may be time to start over really. The Kings will improve because Cousins is hitting his prime, although the roster is still a mess. Lakers should automatically improve without having Kobe on the roster and adding Ingram. I know I picked D’Angelo Russell as ROTY last year, but I think the toxic Laker make-up cost him that chance. Not much to be happy about post Goran Dragic with the Suns to be honest.

Southwest Division

Feb 4, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) watches on during the game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Rockets: 53-29 (2)
Spurs: 48-34 (7)
Pelicans: 45-37 (8)
Mavericks: 41-41
Grizzlies: 34-48

The Rockets ended up being an embarrassing division winning prediction last year, but I love the idea of a Mike D’Antoni coached James Harden point guard team. If Harden can be efficient, he may swipe MVP. Chemistry should only be better too. The LaMarcus Aldrige grumblings have already begun. Gregg Popovich is an amazing coach and the Spurs still seem stacked, but Gasol is on his last legs, Aldridge is unhappy and I want to see Kawhi Leonard be the man. I think that post Duncan era regression begins slowly. Anthony Davis got a shooter in Buddy Hield, but either a star needs to be put with him or we need to prepare for Davis to leave New Orleans in a few years. It’s too late for the Mavericks. And we are way past the correct era for the Grizzlies with their $153 Million man to succeed.

Warriors over Cavs in 7 for the title. I think LeBron is top 3 all time…but the Warriors just added Kevin Durant for free. Imagine if Jordan had to run into the 98 Jazz but they added Grant Hill or something? This is actually worse!

Basketball

NBA Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals!

2 Comments

So long Portland, San Antonio, Atlanta and Miami. Gotta hand it to Portland, Damian Lillard is a star and definitely the leader Portland needs. If they get some more talent surrounding them watch out. The Spurs going down is a shocker, but kudos to Billy Donovan for outcoaching Gregg Popovich. LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard are great players, but Aldridge doesn’t seem to have the leadership qualities of a top guy and Leonard may be more of a Scottie Pippen type. I guess we’ll see. I don’t think anyone had Atlanta winning a game against Cleveland, although Cleveland suddenly looking like the Warriors in terms of shooting the basketball is terrifying. I was basically one quarter away from calling Miami-Toronto correctly, but Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan proved that they can perform in the playoffs. 2-2, 7-5 total.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)

I would love as a fan to see Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook upset Golden State and make it back to the Finals. I was just watching the 30 for 30 Magic Moment documentary on the mid 90’s Magic and its crazy how many parallels are here with OKC. They’ve tasted Finals glory. They had one clear star and one up and coming star, only that up and coming star became so good it’s arguable that he’s on the same level as the clear star. Injuries to the top star only furthered that opinion. They are in a smaller market and relatively new (OKC moved from Seattle, Orlando was new). And now that top star is debating leaving (Durant might, Shaq did). The year before that decision, they face a 70+ win juggernaut in the Conference Finals. I don’t want to see this OKC team break up and I feel like only a shot in the Finals might prevent that. This OKC team is fun and great for basketball, just like the mid 90s Magic were.

But the Warriors are running on all cylinders. Somehow the injury to Curry feels like a long time ago. I guess 17 point overtimes from one player will do that. Each time in the regular season Oklahoma City was just plays away from beating Golden State but could never do it. Durant can go for 40 and Westbrook with the 20-10-10, and still Curry might drop 45 and the Warriors will still win. I think there will be a lot of close games and I don’t want to count out OKC since they absolutely shocked me with their victory over the Spurs. But GS has answers to the match-up problems OKC caused in the previous series. Draymond Green won’t allow the Kanter-Adams lineup to flourish. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry can score with Durant and Westbrook. Iguodala can hound Durant. There’s too much to ignore. Get exicted for five games with scores like 118-110 though. Even if the Warriors win four of them.

Warriors in 5

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #2 Toronto Raptors (56-26)

I’ve counted Toronto out three times so far as I had them missing the playoffs, losing to Indiana then losing to Miami. I’m obviously continuing the trend here but this time it has less to do with Toronto. The Cavaliers are playing the type of basketball I expected from them when they got together last year. As for Toronto, bravo, Lowry and DeRozan are playing great and they should be proud of a great season. No Jonas and a semi-injured DeMarre Carrol is just way too much for Toronto to overcome on their side.

Cavs in 4.

 

Basketball

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 2!

So long Houston, LA, Memphis, Dallas, Detroit, Indiana, Charlotte and Boston. Boston and LA just had a rough deal with injuries. Dallas just doesn’t have enough talent and their best player is just about at the end. It’s too early for Detroit. Indiana had the series in the palm of their hand, but lineups without Paul George were just too awful for Indiana to survive with. George is like the poor man’s LeBron, which really isn’t intended as an insult. Memphis gets some credit for getting to the playoffs with all of their injuries, but this is a team that’s window has closed and is on its way down. Houston of course, is an embarrassment this year and that only continued with their poor playoff showing. Anyway, series wise we went 5-3 last round. Let’s see how we do here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

Portland got a huge gift in the first round with both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin went down. In fact, they became the 2nd team ever to come back down 0-2 when they lost both of those games by 20+ points. But you gotta win them however you can.

The Stephen Curry injury might allow Portland to sneak one, and of course I always want to give Damian Lillard a game where he goes off (like he did against the Warriors during the regular season). Take a bow Portland, you’ve gotten a lot farther than anyone gave you credit for.

Warriors in 6

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)

Too bad I can’t change the amount of games right now after the Game 1 beat down San Antonio put on OKC.

I think Gregg Popovich figured out the Thunder years ago to be honest (while Billy Donovan’s still in his rookie year, remember). They need to find a way to cover LeMarcus Aldridge from mid range and hope Kawhi Leonard can’t cover Westbrook and/or Durant. Unfortunately as Game 1 told, Leonard absolutely can shut down Westbrook. Spurs are too deep and too good and it needs to be remembered that they were a historical team too this year.

Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34)

Ever think that LeBron gets bored of beating these Eastern Conference teams? He’s 8-0 against the Hawks in his playoff career, and last year he basically won 4 in a row by himself. The Cavs are better this year while the Hawks clearly aren’t. Only storyline here is if the Cavs can convince me they can win the title this year.

Cavs in 4

#2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. #3 Miami Heat (48-34)

Yeah still don’t believe in the Raptors at all. They barely survived a one man Paul George team. Miami beat Charlotte just as I thought they would, in 7 because one of their guys made big shots (Wade in Game 6). I think this goes 7 though, but Miami steals it in Toronto.

Heat in 7

Basketball

NBA Predictions 15-16

                It’s almost time for another season of NBA basketball. The Pre-Season is usually the last time fans can have a realistic outlook for how their team will perform. While the NBA has traditionally lacked parity, several roster changes and several young stars making the leap allowed a Final Four involving four teams that hadn’t made a Final Four in years (Cleveland last made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2009 thanks to the return of LeBron, Atlanta has to go back to 1970 before they were that close to the Finals, Golden State’s last Conference Finals was way back in 1976, and the emergence of Stephen Curry was a big reason why, and Houston last got to the WCF in 1997, led by the emerging James Harden). Once again the off-season had big pieces moving all around. That, combined with the emergence of some new stars (read: Anthony Davis) plus the return of some others (Kevin Durant) makes this another unpredictable NBA season…

Right?

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 03: Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Boston Celtics carries the ball against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first quarter at TD Garden on April 3, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Atlantic Division
Celtics: 46-36 (5)
Nets: 35-47
Raptors: 34-48
Knicks 32-50
76ers: 21-61

                I swear each year this division gets worse and worse. There are two intriguing teams here. First we have who I predict will win the division, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics honestly are primed for another dynasty with a bunch of Brooklyn Nets picks and even a Dallas Mavericks 1st too. Isaiah Thomas’ trade to Boston last year led to a 21-4 season finish and a playoff berth. Adding David Lee will only help the offense. The Raptors had made the playoffs  two straight years and bring back potentially a more dangerous team than the last two years (adding DeMarre Carroll) but there was a lot of doubt in Coach Dwane Casey after a disappointing playoff exit and I think the Raptors go downhill until there’s a switch. The Nets are a mess, the Knicks need a huge Carmelo year and really I think they’re going to trade him anyway as he got his money, and the 76ers are like a PS2 Madden Franchise hoarding picks all over the place. Problem is, unlike Madden, those picks haven’t been guaranteed to be anything yet.

butlernba2k16

Central Division
Bulls: 54-28 (1)
Cavaliers: 52-30 (2)
Pacers: 44-38 (7)
Bucks: 38-44 (8)
Pistons: 35-47

                Derrick Rose problems aside, I think the Bulls will improve from the coaching switch. Tom Thibodeau tired players throughout the season and played a defensive heavy system. Fred Hoiberg should open up the offense and rest guys appropriately. It’s like the poor man’s version of The Warriors switching from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr last season. I expect Jimmy Butler to have a huge season as well. The only thing that will derail the Bulls will be if Rose and Butler have issues. The Cavs are the Cavs…which is a great thing for them. Irving’s injuries and the need to rest LeBron a bit will cost them some wins, but at this point it’s clear it doesn’t really matter as long as LeBron is good for the playoffs. The Pacers lost tons of pieces and even added Monta Ellis, but Paul George returning should be enough for 44 wins in the East, even if he plays the 4. The Bucks might be better than 38-44, but I think adding Greg Monroe will clog the pain and actually add problems for Jabari Parker. As long as Reggie Jackson starts at point guard for Detriot, the longer they’ll be stuck in mediocrity unless Andre Drummond goes off (and don’t rule that out).

Miami Heat's Chris Bosh shoots a free throw during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 11, 2012. The Grizzlies won 104-86. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)

Southeast Division
Heat: 49-33 (3)
Hawks: 48-34 (4)
Wizards: 45-37 (6)
Hornets: 35-47
Magic: 29-53

                Miami should be able to reach the expectations they had last year post-LeBron. As long as Hassan Whiteside wasn’t a fluke, Chris Bosh is healthy, Dwyane Wade realizes he’s not who he once was and Goran Dragic gets to play his game they should be good. The Hawks lost Carroll but should be fine. 60 wins was a bit on the luck side last year. Washington has yet to tell me why they’ll be improving, and losing a veteran like Paul Pierce is only going to hurt. Could John Wall and Bradley Beal bring their games to the next level? Maybe, but I think they both actually have limited upsides and we’re close to them already. The Hornets would be a lot worse if they weren’t in the East. Orlando has a lot of young talent but has a long ways to go.

durantnba2k16

Northwest Division
Thunder: 51-31 (5)
Utah Jazz: 44-38 (8)
Trail Blazers: 31-51
Nuggets: 29-53
Timberwolves: 18-64

                Of course, the return of a healthy Kevin Durant will be a huge deal, and Russell Westbrook played like a MVP candidate last year, but I sense that won’t work out too great here. 51-31 isn’t a bad record, but all the fears fans had in the past about Westbrook taking too many shots and Durant not taking enough will manifest this season now that Westbrook experienced the year he had last year. Yes Westbrook led the league in scoring last year. Yes he was ridiculous. But he’s not Kevin Durant. The Thunder have serious depth problems with Dion Waiters potentially in a starting role as well. My pick for the young team to improve is Utah. The Stifle Tower and Derrick Favors were pretty good last year. They were 19-10 after the All-Star Break. I think Damian Lillard is a dark horse for leading the league in scoring this year…to go along with 40% shooting. Denver’s pretty much a mess and will probably trade off all of their pieces, and Minnesota needs a couple of years still.

cp3nba2k16

Pacific Division
Clippers: 62-20 (1)
Warriors: 59-23 (3)
Suns: 33-49
Kings: 33-49
Lakers: 30-52

                My big prediction: this is the year the Clippers have a dominant regular season, and Chris Paul actually wins his first MVP trophy. When Stephen Curry (rightfully) won the ’15 MVP with a 23-7, that opened up the doors for someone like Paul. Golden State will be right there of course, unless Curry gets hurt. The Suns added Tyson Chandler, which made little sense at Phoenix is a team that needs to rebuild and won’t be contending. I see more George Karl-DeMarcus Cousins problems in Sacramento. Let’s be honest, the Lakers need to rebuild at this point. I think D’Angelo Russell is my Rookie of the Year pick though, unless Kobe never lets him touch the ball.

hardennba2k16

Southwest Division
Rockets: 60-22 (2)
Spurs: 52-30 (4)
Grizzlies: 48-34 (6)
Pelicans: 45-37 (7)
Mavericks: 38-44

                James Harden should only get better (and he was actually my MVP pick last year) and Dwight Howard has somehow become underrated. The Ty Lawson upgrade, as long as his head is on straight, is going to be huge for Houston. Everyone seems to think the Spurs are going to control the league with LaMarcus Aldridge joining, but in reality it’s going to take some time for him to get used to the Spurs system after being the go to in Portland. Still…I think it works out by April. The Grizzlies are the same team they are every year. Anthony Davis is amazing, but the reality is his team is awful around him and guys like Tyreke Evans only looked better last year because of Davis’ presence. Davis is going to be in that Davis Robinson position for a while. As much as I love Dirk Nowitzki…Dallas just lost too much with Chandler and who knows what Chandler Parsons will be like this year.

                But I did mention that I think the Spurs figure it out by April, and when they do they’ll get through this as tough as ever West and defeat Cleveland to win the franchise’s sixth Championship.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - JUNE 15: TIm Duncan #21 of the San Antonio Spurs poses for a portrait with the Larry O'Brien Trophy after defeating the Miami Heat in Game Five of the 2014 NBA Finals on June 15, 2014 at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2014 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

We’ve just completed one of the better seasons in NBA storylines. For the first time in what seems like a while, the NBA Playoffs are moderately unpredictable. There are two teams in the East with a realistic chance of making the Finals, then any one of five (sorry Portland) can do the same. I could even think of conceivable longshot scenarios for the remaining three teams in the West. We’ve had MVP caliber seasons from four different players (Westbrook, Harden, Curry and Davis), and a semi-MVP season (from LeBron). It’s going to be a fun playoffs and we’re just going to dive into round 1 here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)

It’s really hard to make the case for the Pelicans here. Let’s try. Anthony Davis is ridiculous. Anthony Davis is incredible. Anthony Davis is a once in a lifetime talent. Anthony Davis carried a team with three inefficient overrated players (Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday) to the 8th seed in a loaded Western Conference. And his team beat out a team with the possessed Russell Westbrook to get that spot. It’s quite impressive. Davis just put up a PER that’s only been surpassed by Wilt, Jordan and LeBron. Unfortunately, because of his supporting cast he may just be in a similar situation as David Robinson in the early-90s.

The Warriors are too deep and too good at everything. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson just destroyed the league from the guard positions. Curry, the likely MVP of the league, was the only player this season to boast a WS/48 that was higher than Davis’ this year. The Warriors are also the best defensive team in the league, thanks to Andrew Bogut (fun fact: I knew right there that Bogut for Monta Ellis a few seasons ago was an absolutely steal for the Warriors) and Draymond Green. The Warriors are so good they willing bench David Lee, someone who could still be a 17-9 guy in the league. Then there is this gem from Bill Simmons: The Warriors are one of seven teams to have a .800 winning percentage and a points differential of plus-10. The other six? ’71 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92 Bulls, ’96 Bulls, ’97 Bulls and ’08 Celtics. Two points to note from that. One: That’s three Michael Jordan teams, which is ridiculous. And two: all six of those teams won the title. All of them. It’s going to be hard to not pick the Warriors here.

Davis is worth a win with some crazy 35-17-6-3-3 game or something. But Golden State just isn’t losing here.

Warriors in 5

#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

A very interesting match-up that is a lot closer than it seems.

There are some interesting parallels here. Both the Rockets and Mavericks made controversial mid-season moves, and neither really worked out. Rajon Rondo has feuded with Rick Carlisle and hasn’t fit in with Monta Ellis in the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Smith brought his normal inefficient offense to Houston and didn’t provide the help the injured Dwight Howard and James Harden needed. Both teams have a defensive monster at center…Howard for Houston and Tyson Chandler for Dallas, although one of those isn’t as good as he once was. Both Carlisle and Kevin McHale, the two head coaches, were Celtics. Both teams are from Texas. Ok I’m nitpicking now.

Here’s the thing. The James Harden-led Rockets have yet to win a playoff series. The main pieces of the Mavericks: Carlisle as a coach, Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler have all won the title before, and three of those did it in Dallas. Dallas proved to be a tough out (the only one) last year against San Antonio because they have guys who knows that it takes to get the job done in the playoffs.

When you really look at it, how do the Rockets win this series? They are virtually a one man offensive team. The Mavericks are built to stop those types of teams with Chandler in the middle. Dallas played Houston very tough this season as well: Houston won on the road by 7 and at home by 5 and 3. Dallas won one game in Dallas by 11. If Nowitzki gets into his prime form, and Ellis doesn’t shoot them out of games, I don’t know if Houston can contain Dallas.

The problem is Nowitzki regress enough this season to cause concern about taking over a playoff series. I don’t believe in Monta Ellis, and I still don’t see the Rondo fit. Chandler will cause all kinds of problems for Harden, but I don’t think Dallas will be able to pull it out. If this was last year’s Nowitzki, I’d pick them.

Rockets in 7.

#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. #6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Poor Chris Paul. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this script before. Gregg Popovich just knows how to create defensive schemes that limit Paul. In 2008 the Spurs beat Paul’s great Hornets team in a New Orleans. In 2012 the Spurs swept Paul’s Clippers. This is one of those I need to see it happen situations before I can take the Clippers.

The other part of this equation: the Spurs are basketball’s best team this last one-eighth of the season. The ageless Tim Duncan has been on top of his game. Kawhi Leonard is an elite defender…basically the new age Bruce Bowen only with a crazy offensive game to go with it…and perhaps a top 20 player in the league right now. Tony Parker is peaking. Everything is going right for the Spurs.

Maybe this is poor analysis, but I need to see it from the Clippers before I pick them against San Antonio. Great Chris Paul and Blake Griffin seasons be damned.

Spurs in 6

#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

Portland just hasn’t been the same since LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his hand and Wes Mathews was out for the season. Portland is merely 19-19 in their last 38 games and only got the 4th seed due to the NBA’s weird seeding rules for division champs.

It doesn’t help Portland that the Grizzlies are one of the toughest defense teams out there. Marc Gasol is a former defensive player of the year, Tony Allen is always a threat to win the award and Mike Conley is as tough as he comes. There’s the general overall toughness of Zach Randolph too.

Portland is just trending downward. Memphis is just a tough team to beat and Portland’s injuries just makes this way too tough. Damian Lillard needs to have the series of his life for Portland to have chance here. Memphis has home court too, although that won’t even come into play here.

Grizzles in 4.

Eastern Conference

#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22) vs. #8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)

The Nets are the sneaky hot team that might get some “upset special” calls. I thought that a bit too, but then that meant I was relying on Deron Williams (washed up at 30 apparently, overrated to begin with), Joe Johnson (anyone notice the Hawks have had a great run since Johnson left them?) and Brook Lopez (always a threat to go back to a good offensive player who somehow can’t rebound despite being 7 foot). The Nets are the 2004 New York Knicks. Congrats.

I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, and I think they may be one of the worst 60 win teams ever, but I can get into that when they are playing the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Until then, let’s just go with the obvious and take the Hawks here.

Hawks in 4.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42)

Another easy call here. The Celtics have been super hot and 29-12 in the last half of the season. Isaiah Thomas has been a key asset and the Celtics are just gelling. Brad Stevens has proven to be a great coach.

The Cavs started 19-20. They are 34-10 since. LeBron is in near peak form, which really might be better than anyone else in the league still. Kyrie Irving has improved leaps and bounds. Kevin Love, while not at the level he once was, actually had a good season that no one realizes. Mozgov, Shumpert and JR have been great pieces.

I’ll give Boston one because Thomas might have a nice 30 pointer in there. But…yeah, not yet Boston. Not yet.

Cavs in 5

#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32) vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)

Jason Kidd deserves something for bringing the Bucks to the playoffs. But I mean, this should be as obvious as the other two series we’ve covered so far.

Sure the Bucks will play it tough. But they just don’t have the talent. Michael-Carter Williams is a fun…but probably bad player. Is The Greak Freak ready to have the series of his life? Even so, that may not be enough.

I expect the Bulls to really be tough this year. Pau Gasol provides that Championship experience. Mirotic is a great bench piece. Jimmy Butler is the best player on this team and is probably the front runner for Most Improved Player of the Year. The Bulls don’t need the old Derrick Rose to beat these Bucks.

Bulls in 5

#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36)

Paul Pierce gets to face the Raptors again in round 1!

No one outside of Toronto or Washington cares about this series. The Raptors are 12-16 in their last 28. The Wizards are 13-15 in their last 28. Not inspiring here. John Wall went from fun young player to overrated (as did Bradley Beal, really). Kyle Lowry went from underrated to irrelevant. For DeMar DeRozan, see Beal. The only player I really trust on either of these teams is Paul Pierce, which is pretty telling (I actually like Jonas as well for Toronto, so I’m lying here).

I’ll pick the Wizards though, because they have some playoff experience under their belt…they almost made the Conference Finals last year afterall…and Paul Pierce is the type of veteran that can help here. The Wizards are the best of the rest of the East (outside of the top 3), but that doesn’t mean they are any good. To be honest, it doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with.

But I need a reason to believe in Toronto and I don’t have one. At least I have one with Washington.

Wizards in 6