Tag Archives: irving

Basketball

2017-2018 NBA Season Predictions

The Path to Warriors-Cavs IV? Sure it looks likely, but we’ll see. Sure was a crazy off-season.

Atlantic Division

Celtics: 53-29 (2)

Raptors: 46-36 (5)

Sixers: 30-52

Knicks: 26-56

Nets: 25-57

                Boston I think is pretty obvious for the top of the Atlantic (it was less obvious last year when I called it). Sure it may take time to integrate Hayward and Kyrie, and the defense overall has some holes losing Avery Bradley. But come on, it’s the East. Toronto is trying this new three pointers everywhere thing, which would be fine if they actually had good three point shooters. There’s enough talent there though to be in the thick of things again. I would love to give the Sixers a huge 2010 Thunder leap, but I’m sorry there is nothing that makes me think Joel Embiid can play anything resembling a full NBA schedule. Which is a shame, because he could be a difference maker. Knicks are thankfully past the Carmelo era and should be bad, but again wins are just going to appear in the East. A potential defensive disaster with Hardaway Jr. and Kanter too. The Nets should show some signs of life, and I’m sure if you ignore FG% D’Angelo Russell will be a fun fantasy guy, but we have a long way to go here.

Central Division

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)

Bucks: 49-33 (4)

Pistons: 38-44 (8)

Pacers: 32-50

Bulls: 21-61

                Maybe the Cavs actually fall behind the Bucks in the standings but once it becomes playoff time, it won’t matter. Giannis might just be the future, and the Bucks have a cool (and long) team otherwise. They might be the 18-19 team to be honest. Detroit is kind of a mess and unless Andre Drummond wants to become the star I thought he would be a few years ago I don’t see them really getting past this point (Reggie Jackson at one time was probably the most overrated player in the league). Like Milwaukee, Indiana has a future star on their hands in Turner, but once again we’re not there yet. Giving the Bulls 21 wins might be high. I’m calling it now though, Lauri Markkanen will at least be a solid player in this league and not a complete disaster.

Southeast Division

Wizards: 51-31 (3)

Hornets: 43-39 (6)

Heat: 42-40 (7)

Magic: 28-54

Hawks: 23-59

                Washington definitely has an outside shot at the Finals. They almost beat Boston, and if the Cavs aren’t ready with IT2 it could happen. The Wall+Beal combo is good, not great, but good in the Eastern Conference gets you far. The Hornets’ Steve Clifford is a very good coach and while Dwight will probably be the same cohesion destroyer he’s been since he left Orlando, his rim protection should help a lot. Miami was the hottest team in basketball somehow, finishing at 30-11. There’s some flukiness to that though, especially when you are relying on Dion Waiters as part of that equations. The Hawks join the Knicks, Nets and Bulls in the “jeeze these teams are bad” club for the East.

Northwest Division

Thunder: 54-28 (4)

Timberwolves: 50-32 (5)

Nuggets: 45-37 (6)

Trail Blazers: 43-39 (7)

Jazz: 37-45

                A real tough division here. I don’t even think OKC is guaranteed the top of the division. Westbrook-Carmelo-George is of course a sexy trio in name value, but I’m not sure how they are all supposed to work together on offense. Carmelo will probably be fine to be honest, finally in a role that makes sense (third best player on his team, potentially hot offensive option that can win games). If his ego is fine with that, then that works perfectly. Can George be a good off the ball weapon? We all know Westbrook will be handling at all times. The rest of the team is a dumpster fire though. Minnesota could be a crazy surprise if Jimmy Butler is the superstar he was turning into in Chicago. Butler, KAT, Wiggins, so much potential for a great season here. I could see them beating OKC in a playoff series too. Denver has some cool additions this season too, specifically Paul Millsap. Him and Jokic are an exciting front court that should have Denver’s offense at an elite level all season. Portland is kinda stuck where they are, with one really good guard, one good guard and a lot of pieces. I don’t know how they get better. Utah should be good defensively with Gobert, but I’m not sure where the offense is supposed to come from.

Pacific Division

Warriors: 69-13 (1)

Clippers: 40-42

Lakers: 38-44

Suns: 28-54

Kings: 27-55

                Obviously Golden State. There’s a lot of random hype about the Clippers, and I love the Danilo Gallinari addition, but come on now, you don’t drop Chris Paul and expect to be close to the level you were at before. Lakers have a lot of exciting young pieces and I think will surprise. Ball is probably going to be a fun offensive option in the passing game and I think Brandon Ingram will look a lot better. Brook Lopez, while flawed, is still a notable addition too. The Suns have Devin Booker so there’s that. The Kings have who I think can win Rookie of the Year in Fox…although who knows who’s playing how much in Sacramento. Apparently Vince Carter started some pre-season games. Vince Carter!

Southwest Division

Rockets: 62-20 (2)

Spurs: 59-23 (3)

Pelicans: 42-40 (8)

Mavericks: 39-43

Grizzlies: 36-46

                There’s no way you can sell me on a Mike D’Antoni team led by Chris Paul being bad. For all the talk that James Harden can’t play off the ball he was fine in Oklahoma City. Too bad they’ll probably lose to the Spurs in Round 2. Speaking of the Spurs, sure I have questions about LaMarcus Aldridge, but Leonard (my MVP last year) is there and he’s a destructive force at both ends of the floor. It’s not just that I don’t completely believe in the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins pairing (because of Cousins), but what they surround them with isn’t good. Jrue Holliday gets all the credit in the world for a fluke All-Star game appearance five years ago in a bad East. He’s not good. Dallas has nice young pieces (Smith and Noel) and the aging Dirk, but that’s not nearly enough. Expect Mike Conley and Marc Gasol to be on the trade block, because Memphis is a shell of its former self and I don’t see their old school style succeeding…although I said that last year.

                Warriors over Cavs in 5 again!

Basketball

2016-2017 NBA Predictions!

It’s finally time for some NBA basketball! Last season was historic for plenty of reasons as Golden State broke the 96 Bulls’ record for wins with 73…but fell to LeBron and the Cavs in the NBA Finals. Of course, for the city of Cleveland that was historic of itself. Other crazy stuff happened too…like Kevin Durant joining those Warriors and spurning the Oklahoma City Thunder (can we just make the late 90s Magic/2010s Thunder comparison documentary now). Dwyane Wade also switched teams to Chicago. The Knicks also built an alleged superteam, even though all of those guys peaked from 2010 through 2013. We also had one stacked retirement class in Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amar’e Stoudemire and Elton Brand. Sadly, Chris Bosh may be added to that if he isn’t cleared to compete. Sorry for the spoilers, but all of this is just going to lead to Warriors-Cavs III anyway. Yeah the NBA is predictable, but when that predictability gets toppled (like the Cavs beating the Warriors) those moments are incredible.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics forward Al Horford holds up a jersey during a media availability at the team's practice facility, Friday, July 8, 2016, in Waltham, Mass. Horford agreed to a four-year, $113 million deal with the Celtics as an unrestricted free agent, ending nearly ten years with the Atlanta Hawks. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Celtics: 51-31 (2)
Raptors: 42-40 (7)
Knicks: 41-41 (8)
76ers: 18-64
Nets: 13-69

Boston is correctly the off-season darling as they are a well coached team (President Stevens!), added Al Horford and already have a solid team overall. There are a lot of Cavs hangover-Celtics in the Finals predictions, but Boston will probably lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to Cleveland. Even though Toronto was a good team last year (and I didn’t even believe in them), the team will go as far as Kyle Lowry takes them and I don’t really know what to make of DeMar Derozan. I sense he’s that good stats guy who’s not really that great. The Knicks might have been a title contender in 2011, but Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah just isn’t going to make for a high profile offense at this point. They’ll have their nights for sure. But Noah has been one of the worst offensive centers in his last full season (and he was good at one time), and all he’s going to do it logjam the middle for Melo and Rose (and Brandon Jennings), none of whom are great outside shooters although Melo gets hot once in a while. The 76ers still have a long way to go and I sadly believe Embiid, great as he’s looked, has Greg Oden injury potential written all over him. The Nets are the laughing stock everyone predicted when they traded their future for old Paul Pierce and old Kevin Garnett.

Central Division

20117lebron

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)
Pacers: 49-33 (3)
Pistons: 45-37 (5)
Bulls: 40-42
Bucks: 29-53

Once again, there are a lot of “Cavalier hangover” articles out there, but they’ll get over it before the playoffs anyway. I mean this is a team that overcame a mid-season coaching change and beat the greatest regular season team ever. Yeah, maybe LeBron is slightly past his prime, but so was Jordan in the 2nd three-peat and that worked out fine. They are going to the Finals again. Paul George was great in his return season and I see no reason he won’t be better next year, and in the East that’s enough. They almost beat the Raptors in Round 1 afterall. Detroit is a team that I need to see get it done before I can put them higher, but Andre Drummond has best center in the league potential. He just needs to hit a free throw. Putting the Knicks over the Bulls might have been homerism from me…but Chicago has a lot of the same issues the Knicks have in regards to spacing, and it may actually be worse. They’ll miss Pau Gasol too. I know the Bucks have Giannis, but he seems more highlight reel worthy than actually leading to wins.

Southeast Division

Feb 11, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Milwaukee won 99-92. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Wizards: 45-37 (4)
Hawks: 43-39 (6)
Hornets: 33-49
Magic: 32-50
Heat: 31-51

What a mess of a division. I think it’s time for John Wall to put up or shut up. He has the talent to be an elite guy, but whether he will be is another question. The Hawks mainly dropped Horford for Dwight Howard. I think there’s some homerun upside here…but it’s probably leading to a small regression. Hornets are one of the teams I don’t believe in this year. Kemba Walker had a good year and all, but just look at that roster. I think it falls apart. Serge Ibaka isn’t going to lead to wins for a Magic team with no identity. The Heat are a mess. Goran Dragic gets another chance I guess to make something happen and return to All-NBA 3rd Team form, but Hassan Whiteside is either really good or deceptively bad, Chris Bosh is gone and I think Miami has to start from scratch.

Northwest Division

2017westbrook

Thunder: 50-32 (4)
Utah Jazz: 49-33 (5)
Timberwolves: 48-34 (6)
Trail Blazers: 42-40
Nuggets: 28-54

The Thunder will still be there because Russell Westbrook is a Top 5 guy. Victor Oladipo may find a new lease on life playing with him too. And you know Westbrook is determined to show he can do it without Durant. Utah’s put all the pieces together over the last five years and it should finally show something. Minnesota has Tom Thibodeau as coach and an exciting young core led by KAT. They remind me of the 09-10 Thunder. Portland looked good thanks to a big year from Lillard and big improvement from CJ McCollum, but all the pieces fell in place perfectly last year for them just to end up at 44-38 (bad Anthony Davis year, no Wolves, Rockets falling apart). The Nuggets are just there and that’s the best way to describe them at the moment.

Pacific Division

2017warriors

Warriors: 64-18 (1)
Clippers: 52-30 (3)
Kings: 40-42
Lakers: 36-46
Suns: 30-52

I was absolutely wrong about how this division would shake out last year. This year it’s clear the Warriors will be at the top adding Kevin Durant, and they’ll settle for a nice 60+ win season while probably resting key guys down the stretch. That’s because the Clippers have peaked (and really peaked in the 14-15 season). While Blake Griffin should be amazing now and Chris Paul is still the best pure point guard, the chemistry isn’t there anymore and all the Blake trade rumors from last year has to take its toll. I think it may be time to start over really. The Kings will improve because Cousins is hitting his prime, although the roster is still a mess. Lakers should automatically improve without having Kobe on the roster and adding Ingram. I know I picked D’Angelo Russell as ROTY last year, but I think the toxic Laker make-up cost him that chance. Not much to be happy about post Goran Dragic with the Suns to be honest.

Southwest Division

Feb 4, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) watches on during the game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Rockets: 53-29 (2)
Spurs: 48-34 (7)
Pelicans: 45-37 (8)
Mavericks: 41-41
Grizzlies: 34-48

The Rockets ended up being an embarrassing division winning prediction last year, but I love the idea of a Mike D’Antoni coached James Harden point guard team. If Harden can be efficient, he may swipe MVP. Chemistry should only be better too. The LaMarcus Aldrige grumblings have already begun. Gregg Popovich is an amazing coach and the Spurs still seem stacked, but Gasol is on his last legs, Aldridge is unhappy and I want to see Kawhi Leonard be the man. I think that post Duncan era regression begins slowly. Anthony Davis got a shooter in Buddy Hield, but either a star needs to be put with him or we need to prepare for Davis to leave New Orleans in a few years. It’s too late for the Mavericks. And we are way past the correct era for the Grizzlies with their $153 Million man to succeed.

Warriors over Cavs in 7 for the title. I think LeBron is top 3 all time…but the Warriors just added Kevin Durant for free. Imagine if Jordan had to run into the 98 Jazz but they added Grant Hill or something? This is actually worse!

Basketball

2016 NBA Finals Prediction

So long Toronto and Oklahoma City. In Toronto’s case they’ve proved me wrong five different times in these playoffs. Sure they lost in six, but they put up a great fight and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan definitely earned my respect. Hopefully DeRozan doesn’t leave and Toronto sticks around as a regular playoff team each year.

I don’t know if Oklahoma City fans should consider this season a win or not. They weren’t supposed to get past San Antonio and going up 3-1 on the record breaking Warriors seemed unfathomable. I’m not completely surprised that Golden State came back although I did think Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were playing way too well for it to happen. Unfortunately, Durant will have his clutchness questioned (not unlike LeBron five years ago) and really Westbrook should too. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but eventually top stars need to get the job done. And when you’re up 3-1 that means not losing three straight. Durant is where LeBron five or six years ago and I wouldn’t count him out. We definitely got some great basketball out if it…leading to…

NBA Finals

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)

In the end we have the two #1 seeds. It may have felt like a complicated way to get here but in truth the Eastern Conference side has was always going to be the Cavs despite Toronto’s fight. Golden State, despite the 73-9 record, was always a little less certain as the Spurs loomed. Surprisingly Oklahoma City took Golden State to the limit. That plus Stephen Curry’s playoff injury plus Draymond Green suddenly becoming one of the league’s top villains has made the Warriors look vulnerable. Cleveland meanwhile has marched through the East with a 12-2 record with the highest points differential in the playoffs since the 2001 Lakers.

Let’s make the case for Cavs. First off the Cavs have LeBron James. Only the biggest haters of LeBron at this point can ignore the fact that he’s one of the best ten players of all time, one of the top two players in the league right now (and still arguably #1). Most fans have taken LeBron for granted. The fact of the matter is LeBron almost won the NBA title last year with Matthew Dellavedova as his 2nd best guy. LeBron went for 36-13-9 on AVERAGE (admittedly with a bad shooting %) and wore down the Warriors basically by himself. In fact, LeBron was my pick for Finals MVP even though Cleveland lost. And this year? This year LeBron has weapons. Like Kyrie Irving. Like Kevin Love. If good J.R. Smith shows up then include him too. If they reach their potential this is one scary team. They showed that against the Hawks in these playoffs. LeBron James can turn this series around and this time he doesn’t need to take 28 shots each game to do it.

Let’s talk about Kevin Love. Love seems to be the most inconsistent player on Cleveland. Some nights he’s nailing threes and getting double digit rebounds. Other nights he’s nowhere to be seen and a ghost on defense. His defense probably won’t magically improve, so he’ll have to have consistent big offensive nights in this series. It should be noted that in the two games against the Warriors this year Love has shot 6 for 21. He’ll have to do better than that.

Cleveland will also have to win the offensive rebounding game by a significant margin to win. This is what you were paid to do Tristan Thompson. Kevin Love also grabbed 18 boards against Golden State on Xmas…but it should be noted they still lost that game. Golden State has already beaten three of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA in these playoffs. It doesn’t mean Cleveland can’t win this way though.

All three of these reasons (not just one or two) will have to happen in order for Cleveland to win. Even then I’m not quite sure it will be enough.

For one Stephen Curry seems 100% over his injury and doing Stephen Curry things. He’s absolutely unstoppable in this situation and unlike last year I don’t think someone like Dellavedova is going to rattle him. And even so, Klay Thompson is clearly in peak form right now too. If there’s one thing we learned from Cleveland’s series against Toronto it’s that the perimeter defense is suspect. Lowry and DeRozan ran wild when away from Cleveland. And Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are much better than Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. I don’t have much faith in Cleveland’s defense away from Cleveland. And in Cleveland I don’t expect for Curry to get shut down.

I also think Golden State is a strong enough team defensively to at least hold down the Cavs. Of course LeBron will get his, but will Kevin Love? I get that Kyrie Irving was just getting back into rhythm when the regular season games against the Warriors took place but he looked bad in both. Then again he was good against them in Game 1 before he went down. The Cavs may get big contributions from Channing Frye and J.R. Smith and they will need them, but I don’t know if that’s enough to win a seven game series. Defensively Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will make Cleveland work for their points. Rebounding wise Green can also beat Cleveland as well (as he did on Christmas). Bismack Biyombo’s rebounding performance in the Eastern Conference Finals really puts a damper on the whole “Cleveland will beat Golden State by outrebounding them” strategy.

All of the intangible factors to go Golden State too. They’ve been here before. They’ve been tested and they’ve won. They’re a 73-9 juggernaut. They have the coaching advantage (although Ty Lue is quite a wildcard). They even have Anderson Varejao, who may not be a factor on the court but you can never like it when someone who’s been on one side for so long is suddenly you enemy (see Horace Grant vs. the Bulls in ‘95 or Robert Horry vs the Lakers in ’04…a Phil Jackson story there).

On Cleveland’s side Kyrie Irving’s played in one Finals game total (although in truth I think he’ll be fine). Kevin Love hasn’t yet and really hasn’t shown me he’s ready for that level of intensity. We don’t really know what difference Ty Lue made other than some stories. If anything, Cleveland had a worse regular season record after David Blatt was fired despite getting Irving back.

The Golden State Warriors are just too good to lose four out of seven. Oklahoma City was close, and I sense that was just the kick in the ass they needed too.

Warriors in 6.

Basketball

NBA Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals!

2 Comments

So long Portland, San Antonio, Atlanta and Miami. Gotta hand it to Portland, Damian Lillard is a star and definitely the leader Portland needs. If they get some more talent surrounding them watch out. The Spurs going down is a shocker, but kudos to Billy Donovan for outcoaching Gregg Popovich. LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard are great players, but Aldridge doesn’t seem to have the leadership qualities of a top guy and Leonard may be more of a Scottie Pippen type. I guess we’ll see. I don’t think anyone had Atlanta winning a game against Cleveland, although Cleveland suddenly looking like the Warriors in terms of shooting the basketball is terrifying. I was basically one quarter away from calling Miami-Toronto correctly, but Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan proved that they can perform in the playoffs. 2-2, 7-5 total.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)

I would love as a fan to see Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook upset Golden State and make it back to the Finals. I was just watching the 30 for 30 Magic Moment documentary on the mid 90’s Magic and its crazy how many parallels are here with OKC. They’ve tasted Finals glory. They had one clear star and one up and coming star, only that up and coming star became so good it’s arguable that he’s on the same level as the clear star. Injuries to the top star only furthered that opinion. They are in a smaller market and relatively new (OKC moved from Seattle, Orlando was new). And now that top star is debating leaving (Durant might, Shaq did). The year before that decision, they face a 70+ win juggernaut in the Conference Finals. I don’t want to see this OKC team break up and I feel like only a shot in the Finals might prevent that. This OKC team is fun and great for basketball, just like the mid 90s Magic were.

But the Warriors are running on all cylinders. Somehow the injury to Curry feels like a long time ago. I guess 17 point overtimes from one player will do that. Each time in the regular season Oklahoma City was just plays away from beating Golden State but could never do it. Durant can go for 40 and Westbrook with the 20-10-10, and still Curry might drop 45 and the Warriors will still win. I think there will be a lot of close games and I don’t want to count out OKC since they absolutely shocked me with their victory over the Spurs. But GS has answers to the match-up problems OKC caused in the previous series. Draymond Green won’t allow the Kanter-Adams lineup to flourish. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry can score with Durant and Westbrook. Iguodala can hound Durant. There’s too much to ignore. Get exicted for five games with scores like 118-110 though. Even if the Warriors win four of them.

Warriors in 5

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #2 Toronto Raptors (56-26)

I’ve counted Toronto out three times so far as I had them missing the playoffs, losing to Indiana then losing to Miami. I’m obviously continuing the trend here but this time it has less to do with Toronto. The Cavaliers are playing the type of basketball I expected from them when they got together last year. As for Toronto, bravo, Lowry and DeRozan are playing great and they should be proud of a great season. No Jonas and a semi-injured DeMarre Carrol is just way too much for Toronto to overcome on their side.

Cavs in 4.