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Football

2016 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2016 NFL Season! I wrote last year how parity had been escaping the NFL over the years, and no worries, that once again was the case. The Denver Broncos, a top 8 team for five straight years now (meaning they lost in the Divisional Round or better), took home a SuperBowl ring behind a vaunted defense. The Carolina Panthers, who I selected to win the NFC South (but I didn’t have the guts to pick them for the SuperBowl), continued to improve after winning their third straight division title. The Patriots were a top 4 team once again for the fifth straight year. Roger Goodell though, seems to be doing everything in his power to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

With that being said…RDT’s 2016 NFL Predictions.

2016eli

NFC East
Giants: 9-7 (4th)
Eagles: 8-8
Redskins: 5-11
Cowboys: 5-11

I feel like I pick the Giants every year for this division. I couldn’t even remember who won it last year (Washington). The Giants still have the steadiest presence as Quarterback in Eli Manning. Eli’s a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde QB at this point, either he’s great or he’s wildly inconsistent. He has Odell Beckham Jr. to throw to, so I’m sure he’ll be fine. I’m sure there are a lot of Kirk Cousins fans out there and he did play well last season. He’s not someone I’m willing to back and their defense is pretty bad. The Eagles have a rookie at QB and nothing else truly inspiring as they recover from the Chip Kelly era. Dallas just dropped lost Tony Romo again for half the season and I think we’re finished with Romo being a difference making QB. What a bad division overall.

2016rodgers
NFC North
Packers: 12-4 (1st)
Lions: 9-7 (6th)
Vikings: 8-8
Bears: 3-13

Kind of a shame for the Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater seemed poised to break out after improving in most statistical categories last season but now he’s done for 2016 and probably part of 2017 too. Adrian Peterson should be regressing, but who knows really as he’s a physical freak. Unfortunately now the Vikings are going to have Sam Bradford at the helm, who’s pretty much known for winning 7 games in a season. The Packers should take the division with ease this year, although Detroit might be able to make it interesting as that’s a team that underperforms year in and year out. The Chicago Bears meanwhile just need to start over.

Super Bowl Football
NFC South
Panthers: 12-4 (2nd)
Falcons: 8-8
Buccaneers: 7-9
Saints: 7-9

The NFC South is full of incomplete teams. I still need to see an improved Saints defense (now that Ryan is gone it should happen) before I believe it. Buccaneers can be one year away if Winston develops. Matt Ryan continues to be perhaps the most overrated quarterback in football, posting big yardage with big attempts, a meager TD:INT ratio and a below average passer rating despite having Julio Jones to throw to. The only team to believe in here is The Panthers. I’m all in on “Riverboat” Ron and Cam Newton. I feel like I somehow doubted them last year when I made them 10-6 to win the South even though I was the only one it seemed who actually picked them to do so.

2016fitz
NFC West
Cardinals: 11-5 (3rd)
Seahawks: 10-6 (5th)
Rams: 4-12
49ers: 4-12

Seattle did regress last year, and they may again this year but they are still in the Superbowl hunt. A lot will bank on if Thomas Rawls can make the plays Marshawn Lynch made for Seattle in their peak years. I totally counted out the Cardinals as a fluke last year and was wrong…but their record here is more indicative of playing in the same division as the Rams and 49ers than my confidence in them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fell off. I don’t think Los Angeles cares about football and while the Rams have been on that outside looking in level for years now, I don’t think they are breaking in unless Goff plays and is the real deal immediately. The 49ers have been a disaster since Harbaugh left and their biggest story is Kaepernick and the National Anthem, which isn’t a great sign.

2016brady
AFC East
Patriots: 10-6 (4th)
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 6-10
Jets: 5-11

I still have New England winning the AFC East although it should be a bit of a competition with Buffalo. A lot depends on how New England starts without Brady. The Bills will hang around…but there isn’t much to indicate that this year will be much different than the past two. Miami’s also a “just there” team and their running situation might make Tannenhill someone who has to throw a lot, which isn’t good. The Jets had a really easy schedule to start last year and did nothing with that, this year is a lot worse. Jets need to get past Ryan Fitzpatrick ASAP.

2016bigben
AFC North
Steelers: 11-5 (2nd)
Bengals: 11-5 (5th)
Ravens: 9-7
Browns: 3-13

The Steelers were a few plays away from perhaps making their own Super Bowl run last season and as long as Ben Roethlisberger is around they will usually be 8-8 or better. The Bengals may have been robbed of their own Super Bowl run thanks to Pacman Jones and Vontaze Burfict giving Landry Jones an easy 30 years. While I have no faith in Marvin Lewis as a head coach, there is no reason to think a healthy Andy Dalton won’t at least guarantee them another playoff berth. The Ravens should be better than last year too…although there are a lot of depth problems there (which really showed on offense last year). The Browns are just a mess.

2016luck
AFC South
Colts: 10-6 (3rd)
Jaguars: 9-7
Titans: 8-8
Texans: 6-10

The AFC South should be quite a fun division to follow. Will Andrew the Giant reclaim his throne as the best young passer in football? Probably depends what his team can do around him. The Jaguars look improved all around and they may steal the division. There is a lot of Blake Bortles hype out there. Speaking of hype, if Marcus Mariota continues to develop and DeMarco Murray regains his form the Titans could storm through the division too. I’m not a fan of Brock Osweiler though. The fact he couldn’t keep his job over probably the worst starting QB in the league in Peyton Manning last year is a bad sign all around.  Kudos for the Texans for taking a shot as their QB situation was a disaster last year though. I’m worried about J.J. Watt’s injuries too.

2016andyreid
AFC West
Chiefs: 12-4 (1st)
Broncos: 9-7 (6th)
Raiders: 9-7
Chargers: 7-9

The Chiefs still rank as a stereotypical Andy Reid team to me. So once again they should lose early in the playoffs despite giving them the #1 seed here. I’d rather have Denver’s amazing defense with no quarterback than Oakland’s young, high upside offense. San Diego probably needs to hit the reset button at this point.

Superbowl feels wide open to me. Let’s go with Green Bay finally getting back there against a returning to form Pittsburgh Steeler team, with the Packers beating them once again.

 

 

Football

2015 NFL Season Predictions

We are merely hours away from kickoff for the 2015 NFL Season! For a few years parity has actually been escaping the NFL although no one has seemed to notice or care. The NFL is more popular than ever and if recent events involving Commissioner Roger Goodell doesn’t dent that popularity than nothing will. Back to the parity point, for years many claimed that parity, that any team could win and perhaps go to the Super Bowl any year, was a big reason for the NFL’s popularity. Only the last three years have shown otherwise. The AFC Title game for the past four years have been Patriots-Ravens (2012 postseason), Patriots-Ravens again (2013), Patriots-Broncos (2014) and Patriots-Colts (2015). On the NFC side it has been 49ers-Giants (2012), 49ers-Falcons (2013), 49ers-Seahawks (2014) and Seahawks-Packers (2015). It isn’t even as if the Packers and Colts or even Giants were new to this either. So while another team may surprisingly win the division or even sneak into the Conference Title game, the days of the surprising 1999 Rams or 2003 Panthers seem to be over. That’s fine, as it makes things easier to predict.

With that being said…RDT’s 2015 NFL Predictions.

NFC East

nflpredeli

Giants: 11-5
Cowboys: 10-6
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 6-10

It has been a few years since the Giants last surprised us with a Super Bowl run. While I don’t necessarily think a Super Bowl is in the cards this year this is the first time in a few years where I think the Giants aren’t being talked about enough (and I live in NY!). The Giants were a slightly better team than expected last year (7.5 Pythagorean Wins against 6 actual wins). With Odell Beckham giving Eli Manning his best weapon in his career, Eli just has to hope that whatever’s left of his offensive line can keep him protected. For two years now Eli’s O-Line has been decimated by injuries over the last couple of years and some of that lingers today. If he can get the ball out, Giants will have a chance on that side of the ball. The other thing going in the Giants’ favor is the absolute dysfunction of Washington and Philadelphia. The Redskins had their whole Robert Griffin III drama and now Kirk Cousins is starting, so that’s a mess waiting to happen. Philly has all the talent in the world, but Chip Kelly’s trade for, then lack of faith of, Sam Bradford sounds like a problem waiting to happen. I really think the ship has sailed on Kelly. What seemed revolutionary a couple of years ago now looks like a coach with too much roster power making crazy moves with a gimmick offense. I guess we’ll see. Dallas should be fine…they were arguably a play away from the NFC Title game last year…but I’ve been far past completely trusting Dallas and Tony Romo at this point.

NFC North

nflpredteddy

Vikings: 11-5
Packers: 11-5
Lions: 8-8
Bears: 7-9

It’s not just the return of Adrian Peterson, which may not even work out anyway (2,000 career caries), but that Minnesota is a young team that should only get better. They were 7-9 anyway without their best player. Part of that is Teddy Bridgewater and how well he played in his last six starts last year. According to Grantland, Teddy was 12 in QBR, completed 69% of his passes for 1,440 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTS. Best of all, it was an improvement over his first six starts. If Bridgewater improves and Peterson is still a monster, that’s suddenly a super dangerous combination. Green Bay is always going to be there as long as Aaron Rodgers plays quarterback, and him alone is enough to make Green Bay a Super Bowl contender (they almost got there last year). While they won’t fall that much, Detroit losing Ndamukong Suh is going to hurt too badly for them to be able to deal with Green Bay or Minnesota. Their offense should be fine unless Calvin Johnson regresses. The Bears should be okay, unless Jay Cutler is completely done.

NFC South

nflprednewton

Panthers: 10-6
Saints: 8-8
Falcons: 7-9
Buccaneers: 4-12

This division is still a mess and really any of the four teams can take it. I like Carolina because despite not being the most talented team, Coach Ron Rivera’s transformation into “Riverboat Ron” (leading to taking chances on 4th down and such) and Cam Newton’s play gives Carolina a shot to win any game. Atlanta may be more talented, and who knows, perhaps the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection will be unstoppable this year, but I’ve never truly believed in Matt Ryan as a top tier quarterback. He always seemed like the guy with every single weapon at his disposal (Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Michael Turner). Their defense was horrid last year as well. Atlanta’s just going to have to prove it to me. I also think I’m over the Saints. I love Drew Brees, but losing Graham is going to hurt and I think their peak is over. And let’s give Jameis Winston a year to see what he’s got first.

NFC West

nflpredsherman

Seahawks: 12-4
Rams: 6-10
Cardinals: 5-11
49ers: 4-12

Even though I think Seattle is slowly on the way down they could easily be just fine and their division is weak anyway. I can’t find a powerhouse in the NFC that’s going take the regular season crown away from them. The Rams are a fun choice I guess, but I’m not going to believe in Nick Foles at QB. While they upset Seattle last year and have a good defense I need to see more before I go in with them. The Cardinals are a prime example of a team to fall apart. Without Carson Palmer they couldn’t score a point, and now we’re getting back a 35 year old Palmer coming off a torn ACL. Palmer’s been done as a top tier QB for years and I think 2014 was just an outlier. Then again, perhaps Arizona just needs him to be merely average. We’ll find out. I assume two people retired from the 49ers as I was writing this. I’m not putting any stock whatsoever in them. You don’t drop Jim Harbaugh and get better.

I just can’t find a way to bet against Seattle making the Super Bowl again. Unless there’s a crazy Giants team (don’t rule this out…happens every few years apparently) or Aaron Rodgers really is the GOAT (don’t rule this out either, although losing Jordy Nelson makes it so much harder on him) I’m going to have to pick Seattle here. Even if they are getting hit with “The Disease of More”.

AFC East

nflpredbrady

Patriots: 12-4
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 6-10

An angry Patriots team is a scary Patriots team. While some key losses may seem to hurt them (Revis), you’re going to have to find a really good argument to convince me that New England isn’t going to make at least their fifth straight AFC Title game.  Remember how well Brady played after there were jokes that he was done and Jimmy Garoppolo was going to start? How did that turn out for the NFL? The Bills will be decent because Rex Ryan can get the best out of a smashmouth football team, but he’s still in the wrong era and Buffalo’s QB situation is appallingly bad. Miami seems to be a popular choice to surprise, but they have no secondary and Ryan Tannenhill is their quarterback. The Jets have Ryan Fitzpatrick running their offense. So unless the defense wants to carry them like they did for Geno, it’s just not going to happen.

AFC North

nflpredflacco

Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 6-10
Browns: 3-13

The Ravens have some red flags…mainly their only legit WR is an aging Steve Smith and the running game looks like it has a lot to be desired. That’s okay though, their defense should carry them to at least the 9-7 range alone, and I’m more of a Joe Flacco fan than not at the moment. I think the Steelers are a bit weaker overall (and have a tough schedule…they play teams like the Colts where Baltimore doesn’t). The Bengals run of one and dones are going to end eventually, and until they move on from Andy Dalton I’m going to pick this season for that. You can’t help but feel bad for the Browns. Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel? Maybe Manziel figures it out. Don’t sleep on the Ravens though…you always have to give a real chance to well coached teams.

AFC South

nflpredluck

Colts: 12-4
Texans: 6-10
Titans: 5-11
Jaguars: 3-13

This is simple to figure out. The Jaguars are still a mess. Unless Mariotta is great right away the Titans will be bad once again, and the Texans somehow downgraded from Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB (although it wouldn’t surprise me if J.J. Watt somehow won 10 games by himself at this point). That leaves the Andrew Luck Colts. I don’t think the Colts are as good as everyone says…they’re right now a popular Super Bowl pick. People are forgetting that the only reason the Colts got by Denver in the playoffs last year was because Peyton Manning was hurt. Otherwise you had a Denver-NE rematch going. Colts will be fine, Luck might be better (which is why their record doesn’t fall), but they’re still behind New England and Denver.

AFC West

nflpredcharles

Chiefs: 11-5
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 10-6
Raiders: 6-10

Put a big asterisk here, because we don’t know what Peyton Manning we are getting. Is he healthy? Is he still hurt from last year? I think that fear combined with the changes made coaching wise will hurt Denver a bit…although a 10-6 Broncos team can absolutely make the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs are a stereotypical Andy Reid team. They’ll probably win the division and lose in the opening round to Denver. I’ve always been a bit of a Philip Rivers fan and thought he played well the last two years. I think this may be San Diego’s last shot at anything. Remember last year they started 5-1 and just had a rough schedule down the stretch.

Ultimately I see a rematch in the Super Bowl. While there are some teams that I think can threaten Seattle and New England, I feel there are too many flaws out there for them to overcome their weaknesses. I think Seattle wins this time though.

 

 

 

 

 

Football

NFL 2014-2015 Wildcard Predictions

NFL Wildcard weekend is upon us. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Your NFC South Division “winners”, the Panthers, have not lost in December after a seven game non-winning streak (six losses and one tie). They’ve only beaten one team with a winning record (Detroit), and that was week 2. While they’re obviously hot, it’s not like they beat the cream of the crop in these last four weeks. It is impressive though that they beat both New Orleans and Atlanta on the road by a combined score of 75-13.

Yet the Panthers are big favorites over the Cardinals. The Cards have been lost after losing QB Carson Palmer for a second time this season…and for the remainder of the season. While Drew Stanton filled in at least respectably, he went down as well and left the Cardinals with Ryan Lindley. To give you a perspective on Lindley’s career, it took him to his sixth NFL Start to throw his first touchdown pass. He had seven interceptions already. Even tossing his first two TD scores wasn’t enough to lead the Cardinals past the downtrodden 49ers in week 17.

Look, the Cardinals have a much better defense, a better coach (Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera for sure) and really probably a better everything else, but this quarterback situation is brutal. There were stories that the Cards were calling Kurt Warner to play for him. Kurt Warner! He hasn’t played in five years! And anytime your QB is so bad that your fans are clamoring for the return of Drew Stanton…you aren’t winning a playoff game. It’s a shame for the Cardinals season for sure, but that’s just the way it goes.

For anyone who thinks a losing team can’t win a playoff game, history is actually on Carolina’s side here. The 2010-2011 Seahawks won their division at 7-9 and then beat New Orleans 41-36.

Panthers 17, Cardinals 9

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) 

Pittsburgh won the tight AFC North Division, a division that seemed to be going Cincinnati’s way all season long. Unlike the Panthers, who won all December games over subpar competition, the Steelers won all their December games against good competition, beating the Bengals twice and the 9-7 Chiefs as well. At one point the entire AFC North was close and it looked as if any of the four teams could win the division, but the Steelers won all their key games down the stretch, including a huge victory over the Ravens on November 2nd

The Ravens though, were no slouches toward the end of the season either, winning five of their last seven. They got a random career year out of running back Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco had what can arguably be considered his best career regular season. The Ravens also had top 10 offenses and defenses per DVOA, which shows a solid balance. John Harbaugh has this Ravens teams going for sure. A bonus too is that the Steelers will be without their star back Le’Veon Bell.

So why am I not sold on Baltimore? Well of their ten victories, they won one game against a team with a winning record, which was Pittsburgh in Baltimore during week 2. After that? They beat Cleveland at Cleveland, Carolina, the Bucs, the Falcons, the Titans, New Orleans, Miami, the Jaguars and finally Cleveland again. All of their losses came against teams with winning records. Not inspiring to say the least.

Ben Roethlisberger has also posted a career near 5K yard year. I don’t think he’s going down in one playoff game after that.

Steelers 24, Ravens 13

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

I could probably just write Andrew Luck vs. Andy Dalton and be done with it…but football doesn’t really work that way.

To be honest though, my confidence in each of these two QBs is what makes the result easy to determine. I mean, you watched last year’s playoffs right? Andrew Luck willed his team back from a 38-10 deficient to beat the Chiefs. The Bengals meanwhile got beat at home against the Chargers 10-27.

This year? The Colts are clearly one level below the elite, beating Baltimore, Texans and even the Bengals, but also had all five losses come against top teams (Denver, pre-Sanchez Philly, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas). The Bengals even recently had a victory over Denver, but that’s amidst a lot of questions about Peyton Manning. The Bengals had a chance to lock up the division last week and in typical Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengal fashion, they lost.

I just can’t not take a team quarterbacked by Andrew Luck here…in Indy no loss.

Colts 31, Bengals 10

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Two long suffering franchises (in Detroit’s case, very long) that have a chance to make a run in the NFC. This is Dallas’ best crack at a Superbowl appearance since they blew the 2008 NFC Divisional game to the Giants. As for Detroit, well, this is their first real chance since Barry.

I’m not sure what to make of this Lions team to be honest. If I told you before the season that your new coach would be Jim Caldwell and your megastar receiver, Calvin Johnson, would have an off year, would you think you would be 11-5 and heading to the playoffs? Of course not. So what’s changed? Well, Detroit suddenly has one of the best defensive units in football, and the best rushing one at that per DVOA. And with Ndamukong Suh leading the way and appealing his one game suspension, that defense is going to be the key to victory for Detroit.

On the opposite Dallas has the best rusher in football: DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo has put together his best season in what feels to be a last gasp to repair his reputation and prove he is in fact one of football’s best QBs. Overall I think this Cowboys team is just too good from top to bottom to lose to Detroit. It doesn’t help that Detroit still feels like an undisciplined team after Suh stepped on Aaron Rodgers.

The Cowboys have had some convincing wins this season and I’ll be surprised to see Detroit be the one to end it just like that.

Cowboys 23, Lions 16