Let’s look through my Top 100 and see what’s changed.
Dropped out: Tom Chambers
As time goes on, new players get in. And that means someone has to drop out.
100. Tim Hardaway (-1)
99. Manu Ginobili (-1) – Despite a throwback playoff performance, Manu is obviously done.
98. Alonzo Mourning (-1)
97. Dikembe Mutombo (-1)
96. Yao Ming (-1) – Every day I think Yao is more underrated than I realized.
95. Vince Carter (-1) – I feel like I have to re-evaluate Carter in the future. Is he really better than Mutombo, Mourning, Yao? I wrote the same thing last year.
94. Carmelo Anthony (-1) – It’s kinda a pathetic spot for Melo at this point. The East is an all-time train wreck, and he still isn’t good enough to get the Knicks to the playoffs.
93. Kevin Johnson (-1)
92. Shawn Kemp (-1)
91. Robert Horry (-1)
Everyone dropped a spot as the new player is in the 80s.
90. Chris Mullin (-1)
89. Bob Dandridge (-1)
88. Paul Westphal (-1)
87. Dan Issel (-1)
86. Artis Gilmore (-1)
85. James Harden (NEW) – Big year for Harden, but there was some criticism of his playoff performance against the Spurs. Rockets are a real threat next year though, and Harden can skyrocket through these rankings.
84. Tracy McGrady (-1)
83. Joe Dumars (-1)
82. Sidney Moncrief (-1)
81. Lenny Wilkins (-1)
Harden is the new player, but someone else rose, which is why 84-81 dropped a spot too.
80. Earl Monroe (-1)
79. Tony Parker (-1) – Another Spur who is pretty much done. Great career though.
78. Chris Webber (-1)
77. David Thompson (-1)
76. Jerry Lucas (-1)
75. Pete Maravich (-1)
74. Russell Westbrook (+10) – I’m mixed on Westbrook’s year. His average of a triple double with 30 PPG is impressive, but also an overrated achievement (not unlike Oscar, actually), his team didn’t win anything despite those statistics (lost in Round 1). His advanced metrics were good, not great for the year. I mean, the MVP matters and such, but let’s just no go crazy here. Basketball stats in 2017 are out of whack as it is.
73. Dwight Howard – Seriously, after what he was traded for how can anyone argue he would be any higher? His peak years in Orlando were seriously impressive, but he’s just someone who didn’t want it enough.
72. Chris Bosh – What a shame about Bosh.
71. Dennis Rodman
Westbrook’s the new addition.
70. Adrian Dantley
69. Alex English
68. Bob McAdoo
67. Tom Heihnson
66. Tiny Archibald
65. Pau Gasol – Gasol didn’t do much for San Antonio to consider moving him up.
64. Reggie Miller
63. Bill Sharmin
62. Dave Debusschere
61. Robert Parish
No movement here. Only one that can change their legacy is Gasol.
60. Bernard King
59. Elvin Hayes
58. Dolph Schayes
57. Paul Arizin
56. Dominique Wilkins
55. Billy Cunningham
54. Hal Greer
53. Nate Thurmond
52. Wes Unseld
51. Chris Paul – I just can’t look past how his teams never succeed in the playoffs.
I really don’t know what to do with CP3. If he can’t get past Round 2 with James Harden next year I don’t know what to think. A big playoff run would skyrocket him in these rankings, because that is all he’s missing really.
50. James Worthy
49. Dennis Johnson
48. Bill Walton
47. Ray Allen
46. Chauncey Billups
45. George Gervin
44. Sam Jones
43. Clyde Drexler
42. George Mikan
41. Jason Kidd
No one moved here. Everyone’s retired.
40. Paul Pierce
39. Allen Iverson
38. Gary Payton
37. Patrick Ewing
36. Dave Cowens
35. Steve Nash
34. Kevin McHale (-1)
33. Walt Frazier (-1)
32. Willis Reed (-1)
31. Rick Barry (-1)
Someone moved up. We’ll get there.
30. Bob Cousy (-1)
29. John Stockton (-1)
28. David Robinson (-2)
27. Elgin Baylor (-2)
26. John Havlicek (-2)
25. Bob Pettit (-2)
24. Scottie Pippen (-2)
23. Isiah Thomas (-2)
22. Dwyane Wade (-2) – Not a difference maker anymore. Still an effective player and could still have some amazing season to put him back in the Top 20, but it’s really unlikely.
21. Stephen Curry (+6) – It was an interesting year for Curry. Very rarely do we see the two time reigning MVP suddenly take a backseat to someone else. But Curry did it without complaint and it worked. It was still a great season for Curry, although even advanced metrically he dropped off. Still, it won’t take much to break into the Top 20 at this point.
Curry moved up and we are still taking into account the other player who moved up, which explains all the drops.
20. Karl Malone (-1)
19. Charles Barkley (-1)
18. Kevin Durant (+16) – Well then. I’d actually put him higher, but let’s be honest his supporting cast was ridiculously stacked. But Durant did become the alpha dog on this Warriors championship team, taking the team away from Stephen Curry, and that can’t be ignored either. Destined for the Top 10 to be honest.
17. Julius Erving
16. Oscar Robertson
15. Wilt Chamberlain
14. Kevin Garnett
13. Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk was okay this year, which isn’t bad. He still intends to play and a strong playoff run can get him as high as 11th on this list, depending on where Durant ends up.
12. Jerry West
11. Moses Malone
Durant is on the charge, but otherwise no changes. Only Dirk can change his legacy really, other than Durant.
10. Kobe Bryant
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
8. Shaquille O’Neal
7. Larry Bird
6. Tim Duncan
5. Magic Johnson
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. LeBron James
2. Bill Russell
1. Michael Jordan
Really, nothing changes based off of what I said last year. Had LeBron been able to knock off this insane Warriors team, he’d be #2 and with an eye on MJ. But, great as performance as he had, it didn’t happen. Still need to see ring #4 before I’m taking him over the greatest winner in league history…or MJ for that matter.
Michael Jordan leads the Bulls to a victory over the Hornets, 123-108. Jordan had a monster 52 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals.
It’s quite incredible to watch Jordan at the peak of his powers layup around and dunk on a rookie Alonzo Mourning. Despite being a rookie, Mourning was no slouch defensively then either.
On the heels of the unfortunate news about Derrick Rose, it seems appropriate to revisit some of the greatest NBA players to have injuries derail what was potentially a Hall of Fame (or better) career. Truthfully, a couple of these guys on this What-If All Star team may make the Hall of Fame anyway. The point of this team is strictly injuries that plagued the prime years or more of a player’s career. Other reasons such as attitude or bad personal habits count against a player making this team, as that’s on the player. Also, for the purposes of this article, I am focusing on players from the 90s on. So no Bill Walton or Sidney Moncrief.
First, a list of “cuts”.
Tim Hardaway: He put up three straight years of about 23-10 for the RUN TMC Warriors before a knee injury took out his age 27 season. He lost tons of quickness, but was still quite effective with a 20-9 in his comeback year. Hardaway later was an effective 2nd option for the Miami Heat in the late 90s as well. Why did he miss this list? I have questions about just how good Hardaway really was (Warriors were 34-48 the year before he got hurt, went 50-32 when he was gone when they got Chris Webber, then dropped back to 26-56 the year he came back). I also don’t think his downfall was as big as others. So he was 85% as good as he was.
Chris Webber: Speaking of Webber, injuries seemed to limit Webber’s overall career. It’s debatable what you thought Webber’s ceiling was but I don’t need to get into that. Webber was mostly healthy in his prime years for the Kings. And the truth was he wasn’t as good as Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki or Kevin Garnett at that time either. Nevermind the fact that the Kings often wondered if they were just as good without him.
Alonzo Mourning: Kidney ailments practically ruined Alonzo Mourning’s twilight years starting from age 30. But as good as he was, he wasn’t good enough to carry the Heat to the finals (or usually past the Knicks). He was who he was and had reached his potential as a good offensive player and destructive defensive player. He still made the Hall of Fame.
Amar’e Stoudemire and Tracy McGrady: Both guys started very young in the NBA and were successful right away and both flourished offensively. T-Mac’s issue is this. Comparing them in 2003, Tracy McGrady was a more talented basketball player than Kobe Bryant. But overall Kobe just wanted it more. That’s why Kobe was still an elite guy as late as 2011 and McGrady was a role player in 2008. Sure injuries played a part of it. But so did passion and hard work. Stoudemire’s case is a bit different, as he basically got the most out of someone who focused on just offense. He should have been a better rebounder and should have at least tried on defense. But he didn’t. Also, both guys had pretty much full careers before injuries really took their tolls (Amar’e came back strong from his 2005-2006 injuries as well). If Chris Bosh’s career ends up being over, you could make the same case about having a full career here. You can make it for Alonzo as well.
Vin Baker: Alcoholism is a sad deal for sure. But it won’t count as an injury here.
Gilbert Arenas: Knee injuries hurt his career sure. But bringing guns into the locker room was a lot worse.
Vince Carter: Notably one of the softest players of his generation (knock him down once and no more dunking), but let’s not forget he also outright gave up on Toronto.
Jay Williams and Shaun Livingston: Two lottery picks. Williams ruined his career in a motorcycle accident and while he had some bright spots his rookie year, that’s wasn’t enough for me to think he was a Hall of Famer in waiting (his advanced metrics were quite bad for a rookie too). Livingston blew his knee out in about 10 different places at once, but again, nothing really indicated just how good he would be.
Steve Francis: With Francis, it’s more bad attitude than anything else. Notes about Francis: practically finished off basketball in Vancouver when he didn’t want to go there. Got Jeff Van Gundy tons of praise for inspiring Francis to play any defense. Got suspended in Orlando for conduct detrimental to the team. And there’s a video out there (I’ll post it if I can find it) that shows Francis walking away from an opponent taking a three pointer. It wasn’t just the knee.
Now, your What-If All Stars.
The Bench
Andrew Bynum, C, Lakers, Sixers, Cavs, Pacers
Resume: Peak Year: 19-12-2, 56% FG, .183 WS/48, All Star, NBA All 2nd Team (11-12, 24 Yrs.). Two Time NBA Champion.
Bynum hasn’t played effective basketball since that 2012 season. The Lakers, with amazing timing, traded Bynum for Dwight Howard. Bynum didn’t play the next year at all, then played 26 rough games for the Pacers and Cavs (averaging a 9-6 on 41% shooting) due to deteriorating knees. He hasn’t played since. Sure he was (and is) a hot head, but Bynum was a force for the Lakers through their two title teams and a couple years beyond, and he was only 24 for that 2012 season. Now he’s out of the league at 27.
Seems odd to put Oden here when not including Jay Williams or Shaun Livingston? Well Oden’s advanced metrics were off the charts in his first two seasons…at least for the 82 games he played. He showed significant improvement in his second season (including a 24-12-2 in 27 minutes). But he couldn’t stay on the court. Any reason not to include him on this team would be more of what happened later (domestic violence, sending sexual explicit images to women, alcohol issues, lack of desire to play), but it’s clear that what derailed his career first was the injuries. In fact, a lot of those may have even been caused by the expectation and pressure he was under.
Let’s put it this way: if you agree that Chauncey Billups is a top 50 player of all time (he is), then this is an easy sell. If not, well you probably won’t buy this. His 25.2 PER was 6th that season, behind David Robinson, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Karl Malone and Hakeem, and right ahead of Charles Barkley. Here’s the list of players who had a season of at least 27.6% usage and a 121 offensive rating for one season in the 3 point era: Barkley, Bird, Stephen Curry (so far in 14-15 at least), Adrian Dantley, Durant, LeBron, Jordan, Nowitzki, Amar’e and Kiki Vandeweghe. And Terrell Brandon. Just look at that list! Brandon’s stats for 1996 look a lot like Billups later during the Pistons run in the mid 00s. Not surprisingly Billups’ teams “overachieved”. Brandon dragged a Cavs team that featured Chris Mills, Bobby Phills, Danny Ferry and Michael Cage to 47-35. It’s worth noting that this was Brandon’s first year as a starter and he was very good in 1997 as well. He was the main piece of the haul that the Bucks received for parting with Vin Baker where Cleveland got Shawn Kemp (so Brandon was traded with a 1st that had middling potential for an in his prime Shawn Kemp. Not bad). Knee injuries screwed up Brandon in Milwaukee. Look, he was really damn good and even remained effective after those injuries. Don’t scoff at the 19-6.
Antonio McDyess, PF, Nuggets, Suns, Knicks, Pistons, Spurs
Resume: Peak Year: 21-11-2, All NBA Third Team (1999, 24 Yrs.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ZLXkRGH_0
You can argue McDyess’ 2000-2001 year is better (21-12). Anyway, McDyess was a high flying power forward known to try to touch the top of the backboard. He had 21-11, 19-9 and 21-12 coming up to his age 28 season. He would rupture his patella tendon, resulting him only playing 10 games in 01-02. Got dealt to the Knicks and while it’s only the pre-season, put up the following lines: 17-17, 13-7 in 17 minutes and a 23-15 before getting injured again with a fractured kneecap. He wouldn’t be the same. It’s one of the forgotten what-ifs for the mid-2000 Knicks.
McDyess was an explosive power forward who was just hitting his prime. It would have only benefitted him playing in the Eastern Conference at that time…the best power forward in the East was Kenyon Martin at that point…and injuries took away his shot at being a top player. He would re-invent himself in Detroit and San Antonio, but would narrowly miss winning a title.
A tough call, but ultimately decided Lewis makes the team for the following reasons.
His cause of death: If it was ruled to be cocaine, I wouldn’t have him here (why I didn’t consider Len Bias). But his heart scarring showed to be inconsistent with cocaine.
While Lewis’ advanced metrics as a whole showed to be rather average, he scored well on a good percentage on a good team and had some good offensive metrics.
He was a crucial part of the post-Bird Celtics. Bird retired…and the Celtics under Lewis in 1992-1993 won 48 games and made the playoffs. He had been handed the keys and all indications pointed to him leading Boston to some more winning seasons. He was just about to hit his prime. But sadly we’ll never know.
Drazen Petrovic, SG, Blazers, Nets
Resume: Peak Year: 22.3 PPG, 52-45-87%s, All NBA Third Team (92-93, 28 Yrs.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLlPtBsGbYo
Drazen’s death potentially set back the immersion of international players in the NBA…but his success ultimately aided that same immersion. Drazen was a dead eye scorer who feared no one. Just watch the highlight reel against the ’93 Rockets (featuring the best defensive player in the world at that point, Hakeem).
He wasn’t happy being benched behind Clyde Drexler in Portland, got a trade to New Jersey and flourished, showing international players CAN succeed in the NBA. For all the talk about Toni Kukoc for Croatia in the 1992 Olympics…Drazen was the true best player on that team. Of the first 14 years that the NBA had a three point line, Drazen had three of the top 17 shooting seasons (2 of those with high enough volume in NJ). He shot 43.7% for his career from the 3 point line (255/583). I mean what?
Maybe it’s a bit of cheating to add someone who was trending upward in his age 28 season, but we had no idea how much better Petrovic was going to get. And when he died in a car crash, we never would know. He also set the stage for Manu, Dragic and all the other international guards that come through the NBA. If anything Drazen was 20 years ahead of his time. He would be a more devastating version of Klay Thompson if he were in the league today.
Brandon Roy, SG, Blazers, T-Wolves
Resume: Peak Year: 23-5-5, 48-38-82%s, .223 WS/48, All NBA Second Team (08-09, 24 Yrs.). All NBA Third Team in 2010.
One of the biggest disappointments in recent NBA history in terms of injuries, because there was nothing Roy could do about it. His knees didn’t have any cartilage and it zapped all of his explosiveness and quickness. Roy was the #2 SG in the league behind Kobe and his injuries turned him into a fraction of that player. He injured the knee late in 2010 and he never recovered. He started slowly in 2010-2011, scoring the same but shooting a much lower percentage. He took a month off and came back worse. Other than one throwback game (how sad is it that at 26 he has a throwback game) in the 2011 playoffs against Dallas, Brandon Roy was done. He would attempt one more season a couple of years later, got paid somehow, got everyone excited…and played five pitiful games. One of the most promising careers a half-decade earlier was over.
The ramifications are huge. When LaMarcusAldridge eventually became a much better player he did it after Roy. Roy and the Aldridge of today teaming up would have made Portland a legit championship contender (and if they made the same Gerald Wallace trade, impossible to say, that could be Aldridge, Roy AND Lillard). We get to miss out on Brandon Roy vs. James Harden battles. It’s a shame all around.
Your Starting Lineup
Danny Manning, PF, Clippers, Hawks, Suns, Bucks, Jazz, Mavericks, Pistons
Resume: Peak Year: 23-6, 51% FG, All-Star (91-92, 25 Yrs.), Two Time All-Star
Manning’s peak year looks pretty disappointing. But he’s here for a totally different reason. Here was one of the great college players of all time coming into his rookie year, averaging 17-6 the first 26 games of the season. And at age 21…he tore his ACL. Manning never regained any of the elite skills he showed at Kansas but to his credit, he still became a very good player. He dragged the Clippers from pretty much hell and took them to the playoffs for the first time in 16 seasons. Got traded for an aging but still All-Star Dominique during his 2nd All Star year…although the Hawks sent a 1st as well. That’s still good company. He left Atlanta but tore up his other knee the next year…and despite being the first player to play in the NBA with both knees surgically reconstructed, he STILL managed to be an effective player. Who knows what happens if he never tears his ACL in his rookie year.
Resume: Peak Year: 22-7-4-2, 51% FG, .229 WS/48, All NBA First Team (95-96, 24 Yrs.). Also made All NBA First Team in 94-95, and Third Team in 96-97. 2nd Best Player on Eastern Conference Champ (’95 Magic)
Penny Hardaway and Shaquille O’Neal were supposed to own the East and the NBA forever. But Penny and Shaq didn’t get along, and Shaq bolted to LA. Penny still looked very good post-Shaq…until knee injuries destroyed his career. Penny made two All NBA First Teams pretty much right away and was Shaq’s original #2 man in the path to the NBA Finals in 1995. They would get close in 1996 as well…but MJ and the ’96 Bulls were too much to handle.
Many said Penny was Magic Johnson 2.0, and there were similarities for sure…but Penny earlier in his career was a better scorer than Magic. Penny wanted that superstar glory for himself. The only thing that could have held him back was his attitude. Otherwise, the Penny vs. Hill battles throughout the early 2000s would have been fascinating. An example of just how devastating Penny could be? Down 0-2 to the Heat in the 1997 playoffs he put together back to back 40 point games and kept Orlando alive (31-6 in the series against a great defensive team). As long as he kept his head on straight and kept his brand in check (lil’ Penny!) and stayed healthy Penny would go down as one of the all time greats.
Penny injured his ACL in a way that was unidentifiable at the time. Penny eventually came back in late ’97, early ’98, clearly not himself. There was controversy in regards to him playing the 1998 All-Star Game…which was made worse when he didn’t play during the rest of the season afterwards (reminds me of Carmelo actually). He was good, but not nearly the same in 1999 and got wrecked by Allen Iverson in the playoffs. He got sent to the Suns…and did okay for a while but then ended up with microfracture surgery and became a shell of his former self. Just read these last two paragraphs again. Penny and Hill’s injuries were major reasons the Eastern Conference was horrible in the early 2000s.
Grant Hill, SF, Pistons, Magic, Suns, Clippers
Resume: Peak Year: 21-9-7-2, 50% FG, .223 WS/48, All NBA First Team (96-97, 24 Yrs.) Other seasons: 20-6-5 (22 Yrs, Rookie), 20-10-7, 21-7-8, 26-5-7. Seven Time All Star. Made four other All NBA Second Teams.
Basically LeBron before LeBron. With the exception of two of those All Star appearances, he accomplished all on his resume before his 28th birthday.
How crazy is that? Grant Hill came into the league and was great right away. He had a killer crossover…yet could play power forward. He was literally the LeBron prototype. After the first six seasons of his career, he had 9,393 points, 3,417 rebounds and 2,720 assists. Only three players in NBA history surpassed those numbers in their first three seasons: Larry Bird, LeBron and Oscar Robertson. Grant Hill was the future. He was traded to Orlando since he planned to sign with them, which netted Detroit Ben Wallace. Some called the deal the most lopsided in NBA history. But it turned out Detroit got the better end when Wallace helped bring a championship to Detriot.
He sprained his ankle late in 2000, but continued to gut it out knowing what he meant to the Pistons organization. He fought hard against the Heat but made the ankle significantly worse (Hill deserves a lot of credit for this considering his impending free agency…although he got max money anyway). He would never fully recover from his ankle injury. Over the next few seasons he barely played for Orlando, his new team, and the following procedure were done: a re-fracturing of his ankle to line it up with his leg…and he also contracted MRSA from that. While he would finally play a near full season and even make one more All-Star team in ’05, he was still a shell of his former self. Hill remained a solid role player throughout the rest of his career.
Remember those Jason Kidd led Nets teams that went to the finals in the early 2000s? Something tells me those don’t happen with a healthy Grant Hill in the league. For his 28, 29, 30 and 31 year old seasons…Hill played 47 games total.
Derrick Rose, PG, Bulls
Resume: Peak Year: 25-8-4, .208 WS/48, NBA MVP, All NBA First Team (10-11, 22 Yrs.) Three Time NBA All-Star. .211 WS/48 in 11-12.
How crazy is it that this may be the end of Derrick Rose’s resume? That MVP is his ONLY All NBA Team and probably will be for the rest of his career (whether or not he deserved the MVP is a different question).
It all began with a serious torn ACL in his left knee in the 2012 playoffs against the Sixers. While in the 90s ACL injuries were huge, these days it should be as bad. But Rose failed to return in 12-13, then managed only 10 games in 13-14 after tearing his meniscus and missing the rest of the season. Rose came back in 14-15…and another tear in the meniscus has put his season in jeopardy. While the meniscus tear is bad…the 18 month recovery time needed from the first ACL injury is a bigger red flag considering he struggled when he came back. Something happened from that first ACL injury that Derrick Rose never got past. Of course, there’s the stats as well: 21-7, 46% FG before the ACL tear in his career…18-5, 40% since.
The good thing for Rose? He’s the only person who can actually play off this team. Good luck Derrick Rose! He’s only 26!
Yao Ming, C, Rockets
Resume: Peak Year: 20-10-2, 54% FG, All NBA Second Team (08-09, 28 Yrs.) .200 CAREER WS/48. Lowest Orating for a season: 110. .220 WS/48, 25-9 in 48 G in 06-07. 8 Time All Star. One other All NBA 2nd Team and three All NBA Third Teams.
Some people called Yao soft. Somewhere in that soft tag was a dominant defensive player, a great offensive player, a legit 20-10 guy who blocked 2 shots a game. Yet in 8 seasons he didn’t even manage to play 500 games. He got through his first three seasons injury free but couldn’t get out of Round 1. Got hurt in April of his 4th season and wouldn’t play another full season until 08-09, where he was great. Without T-Mac, he led the Rockets past Roy and the Blazers and led a shocking upset in Game 1 against the Lakers. While the Rockets would go down 2-1, they would have to press further without Yao as he suffered a hairline fracture. And just like that, it was over. Great secret what-if? Do the Rockets win the series if Yao stays healthy. I mean…they took it to seven anyway.
Yao was a physical freak. Despite all the injuries, his game never wavered. He was pretty much a 20-10 guy since year two. If he stayed healthy, do the Rockets make a Finals? Impossible to say, but I think Yao did have that in him. His stats were good. The advanced metrics were great. He just threw in a “yeah, I’m a great player” performance against the Lakers in Game 1. I think he’s a Hall of Famer anyway.
There they are…your What-If All Stars. Try not to be too sad like me right now. And best of luck to Derrick Rose. And while we are at it…I really hope we don’t see Paul George on this team soon.
It’s the main event of NBA’s unofficial midseason: the All-Star Game. All-Star Weekend itself often has tons of storylines. For example, who were the biggest snubs? At first it looked like it would be Damian Lillard and DeMarcus Cousins, but both for in due to injuries from other players. After Dirk Nowitzki (who is still having a good season, but has slipped a bit) got in, my thought now is that DeAndre Jordan is actually the biggest snub left. He’s been having a Tyson Chandler like season, only he’s a much better rebounder than Chandler ever was. His presence in the middle really might make a difference in April…unless these first 54 games from him was just a fluke. Other storylines involved a stacked three point contest (won by Stephen Curry) and Zach LaVine leaving Dr. J’s jaw on the ground after one of his dunks. It’s been a fun All-Star Weekend for sure.
Now that we’re at the “midseason”, it’s time to see who our front runners are for the regular season awards.
Most Improved Player
Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose
Jimmy Butler, SF Bulls
Normally I’d be all “of course it’s Jimmy Butler, who else could it be?!”, but Klay Thompson could easily win this award as well. I have to give the edge to Butler though, because this season he’s shown to be someone we didn’t know he could be. We knew Thompson was a very good shooter at least. I mean the Warriors wouldn’t part ways with him for Kevin Love (a genius move, I was sure wrong about that one) and he and Curry already had the “Splash Bros.” nickname going. But we already knew Thompson was good. Yes he’s even a better shooter than we thought, and yes he’s improved on defense quite a bit. And yes, he did score 37 points in one quarter.
But what did we really think of Butler before this season? He was an okay to good (depending on the night) wing that wasn’t a difference maker of any kind. The Bulls spent all summer trying to land Carmelo Anthony. Butler shot under 40% last season with 13 PPG and 5 RPG. Not really inspiring stuff. He had a PER of 13.5 (below average), a WS48 of .131 (solid rotation guy) and an offensive rating of 108 on 17% usage (good roleplayer). This year? 46% shooting, 20.4 PPG, 6 RPG, PER of 21.3, 123 ORtg on 21.5% usage. Those are some crazy jumps. He’s doing all this without an effective Derrick Rose no less. And Bulls fans don’t really seem to be talking about Carmelo anymore.
Sixth Man of the Year
Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East
Lou Williams, SG, Raptors
This comes down to three players for me so far. Williams, Jamal Crawford and Isaiah Thomas. I should probably rule out Crawford as this has been his worst LA Clipper year so far. He’s not quite the offensive sparkplug he was even last year, and if he’s not going to be a very good offensive guy then his horrid defense becomes a bigger problem. I’m in on Williams as he’s been part of a team that hasn’t had any chemistry problems since adding him and Toronto’s been near the top of the East for the entire year. Thomas and Williams are pretty close to the same player statwise (Thomas has a small edge), but trade rumors have been abundant in Phoenix ever since the idea of playing three guards came about. Sure, Goran Dragic’s contract is up soon, but you don’t see the Suns actively trying to keep him either.
Rookie of the Year
Wiggins looks like the real deal
Andrew Wiggins, SG, Timberwolves
He started slow…played Cleveland in December and caught fire ever since. Since that game against Cleveland on 12/23, he’s averaged 18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.5 APG and only 1.9 TPG on nearly 47% shooting. And he didn’t have Ricky Rubio for most of it. That’s….pretty good. Once Jabari Parker went down all Wiggins had to do was play well to win the award…and he has.
Defensive Player of the Year
Green has led the best defense in the NBA
Draymond Green, SF, Warriors
It’s not every day that a swingman has the lowest defensive rating in the league, but when one does it would be pretty hard for him not to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Warriors boast the best defensive team in basketball despite playing in the loaded West with an offensive first point guard in a point guard heavy league. Green manages to guard three different spots on the court effectively. Paul Millsap would be my 2nd choice here, followed by Anthony Davis.
Coach of the Year
No one had the Hawks at 43-11
Mike Budenholzer, Hawks
Yeah, I don’t even think the city of Atlanta had the Hawks winning 43 games by the All-Star break. In fact, 43 games total was a realistic total. Another Gregg Popovich assistant of course. Budenholzer has some competition though. Steve Kerr of course deserves credit for taking the Warriors to the next level, and Jason Kidd went from the ousted laughing stock rookie head coach of the Nets to somehow having the Bucks…without Jabari Parker…in the midst of the playoffs.
Still though, the Hawks are 43-11. What?
Most Valuable Player
Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with
James Harden, SG, Rockets
There are four cases to make for the MVP this season so far: Harden, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Let’s start with Curry, as to be him and Harden are 1a and 1b here. Curry has obviously been stupid good this seas. He’s shooting lights out (48-40-90%), he’s distributing the ball (7.9 APG), he’s leading the league in steals (2.2). He has a great MVP level WS/48 this season (.283, tied for the 18th highest in the 3 point shooting era with Shaq’s 2000 season). He’s on the best team in the toughest conference. So why didn’t I pick him? Harden’s close to him in most of these #s, better in some advanced metrics and is clearly working with a hell of a lot less. Curry has Thompson, Green, even Kerr as a coach. Harden has a banged up Dwight Howard who isn’t Dwight Howard anymore, Josh Smith who even when he is Josh Smith it’s not guaranteed it’s a good thing.
LeBron’s case seems dubious as this is arguably his worst season since his rookie year. But then you see the following:
Cavs With LeBron: 31-14
Cavs Without LeBron: 2-8
That’s a big difference. I won’t count him out as if he has a monster last 27 games where the Cavs win 22 or 23 of them, voters will notice and forget about November and December.
Anthony Davis’s case is insane. Despite what we mentioned about Curry’s WS/48…Davis actually has a higher one of .291 right now. That would be good for 12th in the 3 Point era. Only players above him? Lebron (’13, ’09, ’10, ’12), Jordan (’91, ’96, ’88, ’89), David Robinson (’94), Durant (’14), and Chris Paul (’09). That’s the list. It’s interesting to look at Robinson when thinking about Davis here. He too put up a lot of “holy shit” stats. But he only brought home one MVP as his teams were never really the best. In this case, the 27-26 Pelicans have to be better for Davis to win the MVP. Even if he has a record breaking PER. Yeah, it’s amazing that a team with Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon (three black hole All-Stars for sure) as their 2, 3 and 4 scorers is even remotely in the Western Conference playoff hunt. But that’s not enough.
So James Harden. He too has a ridiculous WS/48 (.275). He actually has the highest offensive win shares of anyone in the league. He’s carrying this Rockets team. Dwight Howard isn’t a great player anymore. He’s on a team where only two guys have higher than a 16 PER (him and Howard). Yet this team is 36-17. He’s leading the league in scoring. He’s averaging a 27-6-7 with 2 steals a game. He is your MVP.
The NBA’s Christmas Day games are a tradition that dates back to 1947 in the old BAA. While throughout the 70s and 80s anywhere from four to seven games were played on Christmas, the late 80s ushered in an era where only top teams played…or at least teams with high market value. This article isn’t going to analyze anything about the XMas Day games. Instead, it will be a collection of scattered thoughts.
It’s too bad the NBA season can’t begin on Christmas
I know right? The NBA season starts at the very end of October/early November…and other than opening day no one cares about the NBA for two months until XMas. Why is this the case? The biggest issues for the NBA is that the NFL season is in full swing. The NFL of course is the king of American pro sports until Roger Goodell kills the league (might happen sooner than you think) and the NBA isn’t yet (or maybe ever) topping that. MLB sometimes really hurts the NBA as well. If the MLB postseason takes up those crucial last days of October/first days of November, it’s something else to talk about that isn’t basketball. And while they each aren’t nearly as big news wise, the NBA sharing ESPN space with the NHL and the NASCAR Chase doesn’t help.
It also doesn’t help that the first two months of the NBA season…don’t really matter. This is true for all of the major American professional sports other than football. 2014 was an especially lucky year for the NBA as they had two major stories going: LeBron’s return to Cleveland (and the Cavs “struggles”) and the injury plagued Oklahoma City Thunder. Still, other than LeBron’s literal return to Cleveland has him being back in Cleveland been THAT big of a deal these first two months? Not really right? Hell, even the ratings for LeBron’s return weren’t that great and even paled in comparison to his Heat debut four years prior (I do have a theory on this…which is people like to watch villains. Feel good stories are fine, but unless you’re Michael Jordan basketball feel good stories aren’t that big of a deal).
Do you know when the last time the first two months of a NBA season mattered? The 2011-2012 season! The lockout shortened year actually grabbed headlines before the season began (with the lockout and the Chris Paul-Lakers-Clippers-David Stern Veto situation) and had XMas day games that felt like they mattered. Why did they all feel like they mattered? Each game had either a situation attached to it and wasn’t tarnished by a team not performing as well as they should (you know, since they were all 0-0 at that point). For example: Carmelo lit up the Celtics and made it seem like the Knicks were going to be a real power (they were okay…although they had to be saved by Linsanity at one point), Chris Paul was making his Los Angeles Clippers debut against the Warriors with young Stephen Curry (who did not play well), the Heat and Mavericks had a Finals rematch, Oklahoma City took on Orlando in a game full of future (or even current) superstars (Durant, Westbrook, Dwight), and lastly Kobe and the Lakers took on DRose and the Bulls. All five games felt like big deals. Does this happen in a normal season? I say no. Clippers vs. Warriors loses appeal as the Warriors still weren’t ready and Chris Paul would have made his debut two months prior. The Knicks might have been in their slump (they were 12-15 at one point). Maybe even Orlando vs. OKC gets tarnished as Dwight battled injuries all season. This all leads me to my second thought.
There are one too many games on XMas…which tarnishes the sifnoficance a bit
While in the 70s and 80s there were anywhere from four to seven games on Christmas, that changed to one or two games throughout the 90s. As a result, you always had a big time game on for Christmas (although, oddly never the biggest game, you’d think MJ would be there every year). I’m going to pick 1995 as a starting point here…and only pointing out how games were marketed. Injuries would just be bad luck.
1995 (2 Games): Rockets @ Magic (Finals Rematch, Hakeem and Drexler vs. Shaq and Penny), Spurs @ Suns (Robinson vs. Barkley)
1996 (2 Games): Pistons @ Bulls (Grant Hill vs. MJ, Pippen, etc…Pistons were 20-6 at this point), Lakers @ Suns (Shaq’s first season as a Laker, Suns were an odd choice though)
1997 (2 Games): Heat @ Bulls (ECF Rematch, Tim Hardaway and Mourning vs. Jordan, Pippen, etc.), Rockets @ Jazz (WCF Rematch, Hakeem, Barkley and Drexler vs. Malone and Stockton)
1998: Lockout
1999 (2 Games): Knicks @ Pacers (ECF Rematch, Knicks vs. Reggie), Spurs @ Lakers (Duncan, Robinson vs. Shaq, young Kobe)
2000 (2 Games): Magic @ Pacers (TMac vs. the defending EC Champs w/Reggie, ambitious because the magic weren’t quite there yet, but TMac was surely a rising star), Trail Blazers @ Lakers (WCF Rematch, Rasheed vs. Shaq, Kobe)
2001 (2 Games): 76ers @ Lakers (NBA Finals Rematch: Iverson vs. Shaq/Kobe), Raptors @ Knicks (Carter vs. Knicks…the overrated draw of the Knicks starts to show around this time though)
2002 (3 Games): Kings @ Lakers (Best rivalry at the time and WCF Rematch, Webber vs. Shaq, Kobe), Celtics @ Nets (ECF Rematch, Pierce vs. Kidd), Pistons @ Magic (TMac and Hill vs. Detroit’s D), this could be an example already of one game too many though.
2003 (3 Games): Rockets @ Lakers (Yao, Francis vs. Shaq, Kobe), Cavs @ Magic (rookie LeBron vs. TMac), Mavericks @ Kings (7 Game WCSF rematch, Nowitzki vs. Bibby, Peja)
2004 (2 Games): Pistons @ Pacers (One of the best rivalries at the time), Heat @ Lakers (the much anticipated Shaq vs. Kobe…Wade was there too obviously)
2006 (1 Game): Lakers @ Heat (Really pushing that Shaq vs. Kobe draw)
2007 (3 Games): Heat @ Cavs (Wade vs. LeBron…whole thing was wrecked though as this was Miami’s 15-67 season), Suns @ Lakers (Nash vs. Kobe), Supersonics @ Trail Blazers (was supposed to be rookie Durant vs. rookie Oden and Roy). This represented probably the weakest set of games of the last 13 seasons.
2008 would begin the five game setup we have now. Let’s go over these 13 season of XMas games though: don’t most of these feel like a big deal? The NBA smartly pushed their top teams and talents into these games, and also gave the younger stars a chance to shine. Let’s look at 2008.
2008 (5 Games): Wizards @ Cavs (A budding rivalry which was really LeBron destroying them over and over…LeBron vs. Arenas), Celtics @ Lakers (NBA Finals rematch), Hornets @ Magic (CP3 vs. Dwight), Spurs @ Suns (Another good rivalry, Nash and Shaq vs. Duncan, Parker and Manu), Mavericks @ Trail Blazers (Nowitzki and Kidd vs. Roy and if Oden is there somehow?). Wizards don’t belong here, and Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers is one game too many.
Each year would still have its monster games of course, but then also a 4th or 5th game which took the significance away from the Christmas games. 2009 had Lebron vs. Kobe…and for some reason the godawful Knicks vs. Wade and a bunch of nobodies. Let’s look at 2014’s games.
2014 (5 Games): Wizards @ Knicks (Wall vs. Carmelo?), Thunder @ Spurs (Durant and Westbrook vs. the legendary Spurs trio), Cavs @ Heat (Lebron returns), Lakers @ Bulls (Kobe vs. DRose), Warriors @ Clippers (Curry vs. Blake and CP3)
The two obvious games that don’t belong? Wizards @ Knicks and Lakers @ Bulls. Lakers and Knicks combined records: 14-44. The Wizards are a fun up and coming team sure, but the Knicks are awful and most thought they would be as well. The Lakers too are the same way, and XMas day does not need the draw of Kobe (we didn’t see Wizards Jordan on XMas). Nevermind that it was a crapshoot we’d even get Derrick Rose playing. The other three are good choices. OKC vs. the Spurs lucked out (as long as Pop doesn’t bench anyone) since Durant and Westbrook are healthy. Cavs @ Heat was always going to be a big deal, even if the Heat aren’t anywhere near what they were and Bosh is out (it’s no different than Lakers-Heat in the mid 2000s). Golden State and LAC will be a great game. This is just two games too much.
I think I’ve had enough scattered thoughts about the NBA XMas day games. The NBA is still about a month and a half before they monopolize ESPN (post Super Bowl and All Star Weekend), and truthfully I can’t wait. And we usually get the ball rolling on XMas. I just wish 33% of the league wasn’t playing today. It would be a lot more special that way.
Rajon Rondo is one of the most polarizing figures in the NBA. Public expectation of Rondo has zig zagged throughout this entire career. In 2006 when he was drafted by Boston (or sold by Phoenix, however you want to look at these things), he was the point guard who couldn’t shoot. In 2007 he was expected to be competent enough to not screw-up the new big three and hopeful NBA Champion Boston Celtics. From 2009 through 2012 he was supposed to be the best player AND future of the Celtics. In 2014 he was supposed to lead the Celtics after a terrible ACL injury…but no one knew despite his statistics how good he really was or if he could be good without a Hall of Fame cast. Now, he’s supposed to be the missing piece to get Dallas over the hump and deliver Dirk Nowitzki a second ring.
The trade is constructed as follows: Boston sends Rajon Rondo for Brandan Wright, Jameer Nelson, Jae Crowder, a 2015 1st rounder from Dallas if it falls between #4 and #14 (it won’t) or a top 7 protected 2016 1st (very likely). I’m not sure, but I believe a second pick is in there somewhere as well.
Let’s first look at both of these teams. First, Boston. The Celtics have built towards the future obviously and have built quite well. They absolutely shackled the Nets with the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett trade (the Nets have to swap their 2017 1st with Boston, as well as give up their 2016 and 2018 1st rounders…I think. They also got their 2014 1st rounder too. They selected James Young.) If you’ve seen the Nets and what their future looks like, you probably are expecting another Boston dynasty in about five years. Boston also has a late 1st round pick in 2015 from the Clippers in the Doc Rivers deal and a 2016 1st from Cleveland in the Keith Bogans deal. Garnett’s a shell of a shell of his former self…and Pierce currently plays for the Wizards. While Boston didn’t get enough for Rondo here, it’s not as bad as many have made it out to be.
The Mavericks are in contention mode right now and are absolutely doing the right thing in trying to upgrade their roster short term. You don’t waste players like Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki’s entered that Reggie Miller part of his career where his raw stats may not look like anything special, but he’s still a ridiculous player who can hit any shot and wins games…playoff games included…at any time. You can definitely win a championship in 2014 with this Dirk Nowitzki. Monta Ellis, traditionally a volume shooter than hurts his team more than he helps, does well enough alongside Nowitzki on the offensive end. He gets opportunities he didn’t get in Golden State and Milwakuee playing with Nowitzki. He and Nowitzki’s defensive shortcomings are all covered up by a rejuvenated Tyson Chandler, who also doubles as one of the most efficient offensive players in the league (currently shooting 68% from the floor, which is basically all put backs and dunks. Some would use that as an argument to say Chandler isn’t a good offensive player…which doesn’t make any sense at all.) Chandler Parsons of course is a solid offensive player himself. Considering their starting point guards have been a washed up Nelson and a washed up Devin Harris and they STILL have an incredible offense that leads the league in both PPG and Offensive Rating, well, Rondo has to be considered a huge upgrade, right? And defensively, Nelson and Harris are average at best. Again, Rondo can only improve that, correct?
Well, yes and no. Rajon Rondo is polarizing as his resume reintroduces the question of whether good stats means a good player. Rondo’s stats are pretty great for a point guard. He’s led the league in assists per game three of the last four seasons (counting this season so far). His last six season APG averages? 9.8, 11.2, 11.7, 11.1, 9.8 and 10.8 this season. I mean, those aren’t just good…those are incredible. He’s usually close to averaging two steals a game. He doesn’t shoot a lot and always looks to set up teammates. He sounds like a perfect player for this Mavericks team. But the downside is after 8 seasons Rajon Rondo still can’t hit an outside shot. He can barely hit a 15 footer. While Nelson and Harris aren’t exactly Stephen Curry out there, and Nelson is even shooting 37%, they are still players that should be guarded from the outside. That’s part of some past reputation. But Rondo? Why guard him at all if you can just double Nowitzki? Clog up the middle and make Rondo shoot. That’s what the Lakers did in the 2010 Finals afterall. This glaring weakness is huge and has prevented Rondo from becoming a truly elite point guard along the lines of Chris Paul. He’s a new age Jason Kidd…although Kidd was always able to get the best out of subpar teammates. Rondo hasn’t been able to do that. All of this coupled with his ACL history creates something that kind of make sense of why he was traded for 50 cents on the dollar.
Do I think Boston could have and should have gotten more? Yes. But it was still okay. Dallas won this trade though not just because they traded very little of value to upgrade from Nelson and Harris to Rondo…but because of who Rondo can be when he’s motivated. His 2009 playoff box scores when carrying the Kevin Garnett-less Celtics were incredible. (29-9-7, 19-12-16, 20-11-6-5, 25-11-11 and 28-11 against Chicago in the first round, 14-10-8, 15-11-18, 21-12-14 vs. Orlando in round 2). He was the best player in the Boston-Cleveland series in 2010, and put up a gem of a game (29-18-13) in a crucial game 4. You really think Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Tony Parker and Stephen Curry want to deal with Rajon Rondo in the playoffs?
Great move for Dallas, good but could have been better move for Boston.
