It’s almost time for another season of NBA basketball. The Pre-Season is usually the last time fans can have a realistic outlook for how their team will perform. While the NBA has traditionally lacked parity, several roster changes and several young stars making the leap allowed a Final Four involving four teams that hadn’t made a Final Four in years (Cleveland last made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2009 thanks to the return of LeBron, Atlanta has to go back to 1970 before they were that close to the Finals, Golden State’s last Conference Finals was way back in 1976, and the emergence of Stephen Curry was a big reason why, and Houston last got to the WCF in 1997, led by the emerging James Harden). Once again the off-season had big pieces moving all around. That, combined with the emergence of some new stars (read: Anthony Davis) plus the return of some others (Kevin Durant) makes this another unpredictable NBA season…
Right?
Atlantic Division
Celtics: 46-36 (5)
Nets: 35-47
Raptors: 34-48
Knicks 32-50
76ers: 21-61
I swear each year this division gets worse and worse. There are two intriguing teams here. First we have who I predict will win the division, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics honestly are primed for another dynasty with a bunch of Brooklyn Nets picks and even a Dallas Mavericks 1st too. Isaiah Thomas’ trade to Boston last year led to a 21-4 season finish and a playoff berth. Adding David Lee will only help the offense. The Raptors had made the playoffs two straight years and bring back potentially a more dangerous team than the last two years (adding DeMarre Carroll) but there was a lot of doubt in Coach Dwane Casey after a disappointing playoff exit and I think the Raptors go downhill until there’s a switch. The Nets are a mess, the Knicks need a huge Carmelo year and really I think they’re going to trade him anyway as he got his money, and the 76ers are like a PS2 Madden Franchise hoarding picks all over the place. Problem is, unlike Madden, those picks haven’t been guaranteed to be anything yet.
Central Division
Bulls: 54-28 (1)
Cavaliers: 52-30 (2)
Pacers: 44-38 (7)
Bucks: 38-44 (8)
Pistons: 35-47
Derrick Rose problems aside, I think the Bulls will improve from the coaching switch. Tom Thibodeau tired players throughout the season and played a defensive heavy system. Fred Hoiberg should open up the offense and rest guys appropriately. It’s like the poor man’s version of The Warriors switching from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr last season. I expect Jimmy Butler to have a huge season as well. The only thing that will derail the Bulls will be if Rose and Butler have issues. The Cavs are the Cavs…which is a great thing for them. Irving’s injuries and the need to rest LeBron a bit will cost them some wins, but at this point it’s clear it doesn’t really matter as long as LeBron is good for the playoffs. The Pacers lost tons of pieces and even added Monta Ellis, but Paul George returning should be enough for 44 wins in the East, even if he plays the 4. The Bucks might be better than 38-44, but I think adding Greg Monroe will clog the pain and actually add problems for Jabari Parker. As long as Reggie Jackson starts at point guard for Detriot, the longer they’ll be stuck in mediocrity unless Andre Drummond goes off (and don’t rule that out).
Southeast Division
Heat: 49-33 (3)
Hawks: 48-34 (4)
Wizards: 45-37 (6)
Hornets: 35-47
Magic: 29-53
Miami should be able to reach the expectations they had last year post-LeBron. As long as Hassan Whiteside wasn’t a fluke, Chris Bosh is healthy, Dwyane Wade realizes he’s not who he once was and Goran Dragic gets to play his game they should be good. The Hawks lost Carroll but should be fine. 60 wins was a bit on the luck side last year. Washington has yet to tell me why they’ll be improving, and losing a veteran like Paul Pierce is only going to hurt. Could John Wall and Bradley Beal bring their games to the next level? Maybe, but I think they both actually have limited upsides and we’re close to them already. The Hornets would be a lot worse if they weren’t in the East. Orlando has a lot of young talent but has a long ways to go.
Northwest Division
Thunder: 51-31 (5)
Utah Jazz: 44-38 (8)
Trail Blazers: 31-51
Nuggets: 29-53
Timberwolves: 18-64
Of course, the return of a healthy Kevin Durant will be a huge deal, and Russell Westbrook played like a MVP candidate last year, but I sense that won’t work out too great here. 51-31 isn’t a bad record, but all the fears fans had in the past about Westbrook taking too many shots and Durant not taking enough will manifest this season now that Westbrook experienced the year he had last year. Yes Westbrook led the league in scoring last year. Yes he was ridiculous. But he’s not Kevin Durant. The Thunder have serious depth problems with Dion Waiters potentially in a starting role as well. My pick for the young team to improve is Utah. The Stifle Tower and Derrick Favors were pretty good last year. They were 19-10 after the All-Star Break. I think Damian Lillard is a dark horse for leading the league in scoring this year…to go along with 40% shooting. Denver’s pretty much a mess and will probably trade off all of their pieces, and Minnesota needs a couple of years still.
Pacific Division
Clippers: 62-20 (1)
Warriors: 59-23 (3)
Suns: 33-49
Kings: 33-49
Lakers: 30-52
My big prediction: this is the year the Clippers have a dominant regular season, and Chris Paul actually wins his first MVP trophy. When Stephen Curry (rightfully) won the ’15 MVP with a 23-7, that opened up the doors for someone like Paul. Golden State will be right there of course, unless Curry gets hurt. The Suns added Tyson Chandler, which made little sense at Phoenix is a team that needs to rebuild and won’t be contending. I see more George Karl-DeMarcus Cousins problems in Sacramento. Let’s be honest, the Lakers need to rebuild at this point. I think D’Angelo Russell is my Rookie of the Year pick though, unless Kobe never lets him touch the ball.
Southwest Division
Rockets: 60-22 (2)
Spurs: 52-30 (4)
Grizzlies: 48-34 (6)
Pelicans: 45-37 (7)
Mavericks: 38-44
James Harden should only get better (and he was actually my MVP pick last year) and Dwight Howard has somehow become underrated. The Ty Lawson upgrade, as long as his head is on straight, is going to be huge for Houston. Everyone seems to think the Spurs are going to control the league with LaMarcus Aldridge joining, but in reality it’s going to take some time for him to get used to the Spurs system after being the go to in Portland. Still…I think it works out by April. The Grizzlies are the same team they are every year. Anthony Davis is amazing, but the reality is his team is awful around him and guys like Tyreke Evans only looked better last year because of Davis’ presence. Davis is going to be in that Davis Robinson position for a while. As much as I love Dirk Nowitzki…Dallas just lost too much with Chandler and who knows what Chandler Parsons will be like this year.
But I did mention that I think the Spurs figure it out by April, and when they do they’ll get through this as tough as ever West and defeat Cleveland to win the franchise’s sixth Championship.
