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Basketball

2016 NBA Finals Prediction

So long Toronto and Oklahoma City. In Toronto’s case they’ve proved me wrong five different times in these playoffs. Sure they lost in six, but they put up a great fight and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan definitely earned my respect. Hopefully DeRozan doesn’t leave and Toronto sticks around as a regular playoff team each year.

I don’t know if Oklahoma City fans should consider this season a win or not. They weren’t supposed to get past San Antonio and going up 3-1 on the record breaking Warriors seemed unfathomable. I’m not completely surprised that Golden State came back although I did think Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were playing way too well for it to happen. Unfortunately, Durant will have his clutchness questioned (not unlike LeBron five years ago) and really Westbrook should too. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but eventually top stars need to get the job done. And when you’re up 3-1 that means not losing three straight. Durant is where LeBron five or six years ago and I wouldn’t count him out. We definitely got some great basketball out if it…leading to…

NBA Finals

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)

In the end we have the two #1 seeds. It may have felt like a complicated way to get here but in truth the Eastern Conference side has was always going to be the Cavs despite Toronto’s fight. Golden State, despite the 73-9 record, was always a little less certain as the Spurs loomed. Surprisingly Oklahoma City took Golden State to the limit. That plus Stephen Curry’s playoff injury plus Draymond Green suddenly becoming one of the league’s top villains has made the Warriors look vulnerable. Cleveland meanwhile has marched through the East with a 12-2 record with the highest points differential in the playoffs since the 2001 Lakers.

Let’s make the case for Cavs. First off the Cavs have LeBron James. Only the biggest haters of LeBron at this point can ignore the fact that he’s one of the best ten players of all time, one of the top two players in the league right now (and still arguably #1). Most fans have taken LeBron for granted. The fact of the matter is LeBron almost won the NBA title last year with Matthew Dellavedova as his 2nd best guy. LeBron went for 36-13-9 on AVERAGE (admittedly with a bad shooting %) and wore down the Warriors basically by himself. In fact, LeBron was my pick for Finals MVP even though Cleveland lost. And this year? This year LeBron has weapons. Like Kyrie Irving. Like Kevin Love. If good J.R. Smith shows up then include him too. If they reach their potential this is one scary team. They showed that against the Hawks in these playoffs. LeBron James can turn this series around and this time he doesn’t need to take 28 shots each game to do it.

Let’s talk about Kevin Love. Love seems to be the most inconsistent player on Cleveland. Some nights he’s nailing threes and getting double digit rebounds. Other nights he’s nowhere to be seen and a ghost on defense. His defense probably won’t magically improve, so he’ll have to have consistent big offensive nights in this series. It should be noted that in the two games against the Warriors this year Love has shot 6 for 21. He’ll have to do better than that.

Cleveland will also have to win the offensive rebounding game by a significant margin to win. This is what you were paid to do Tristan Thompson. Kevin Love also grabbed 18 boards against Golden State on Xmas…but it should be noted they still lost that game. Golden State has already beaten three of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA in these playoffs. It doesn’t mean Cleveland can’t win this way though.

All three of these reasons (not just one or two) will have to happen in order for Cleveland to win. Even then I’m not quite sure it will be enough.

For one Stephen Curry seems 100% over his injury and doing Stephen Curry things. He’s absolutely unstoppable in this situation and unlike last year I don’t think someone like Dellavedova is going to rattle him. And even so, Klay Thompson is clearly in peak form right now too. If there’s one thing we learned from Cleveland’s series against Toronto it’s that the perimeter defense is suspect. Lowry and DeRozan ran wild when away from Cleveland. And Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are much better than Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. I don’t have much faith in Cleveland’s defense away from Cleveland. And in Cleveland I don’t expect for Curry to get shut down.

I also think Golden State is a strong enough team defensively to at least hold down the Cavs. Of course LeBron will get his, but will Kevin Love? I get that Kyrie Irving was just getting back into rhythm when the regular season games against the Warriors took place but he looked bad in both. Then again he was good against them in Game 1 before he went down. The Cavs may get big contributions from Channing Frye and J.R. Smith and they will need them, but I don’t know if that’s enough to win a seven game series. Defensively Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will make Cleveland work for their points. Rebounding wise Green can also beat Cleveland as well (as he did on Christmas). Bismack Biyombo’s rebounding performance in the Eastern Conference Finals really puts a damper on the whole “Cleveland will beat Golden State by outrebounding them” strategy.

All of the intangible factors to go Golden State too. They’ve been here before. They’ve been tested and they’ve won. They’re a 73-9 juggernaut. They have the coaching advantage (although Ty Lue is quite a wildcard). They even have Anderson Varejao, who may not be a factor on the court but you can never like it when someone who’s been on one side for so long is suddenly you enemy (see Horace Grant vs. the Bulls in ‘95 or Robert Horry vs the Lakers in ’04…a Phil Jackson story there).

On Cleveland’s side Kyrie Irving’s played in one Finals game total (although in truth I think he’ll be fine). Kevin Love hasn’t yet and really hasn’t shown me he’s ready for that level of intensity. We don’t really know what difference Ty Lue made other than some stories. If anything, Cleveland had a worse regular season record after David Blatt was fired despite getting Irving back.

The Golden State Warriors are just too good to lose four out of seven. Oklahoma City was close, and I sense that was just the kick in the ass they needed too.

Warriors in 6.

Basketball

This Day In Sports 6-12: The Chicago Bulls…and Michael Jordan win Title #1 (1991)

On this date 24 years ago, Michael Jordan shed the label of a star who couldn’t win like Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. On June 12th, 1991 Michael Jordan led the Chicago Bulls over Magic’s Lakers four games to one to win the NBA Championship.

Jordan had a monster series: 31.2 PPG-6.6 RPG-11.4 APG-2.8 SPG-1.4 BPG on 56% shooting.  Scottie Pippen provided the Bulls that extra push with a big series himself.

Game five historically was the last NBA Finals game of Magic Johnson’s career, and the last regular season or playoff game for him until his brief comeback in 1996.

Basketball

This Day in Sports 6-8: The Celtics Win Championship #16

Perhaps the NBA’s all time greatest team, the 1986 Boston Celtics, defeated the upstart Houston Rockets 4-2 to win their league leading 16th Championship. Larry Bird and Kevin McHale each chipped in 29 points. Hakeem Olajuwon was held to 19 and (an injured) Ralph Sampson held to 8, on a combined 10 for 26 shooting.

Despite the loss, it was expected that the Rockets would be the future of the NBA. Hakeem especially had brought the franchise to life and was in only his 2nd season. The Hakeem-Sampson combo had overwhelmed the Lakers in the Western Conference finals. The Rockets would fall apart around Hakeem over the next few years though, leading Hakeem playing the Kevin Garnett on the Minnesota Timberwolves role until 1993.

The Celtics would nearly defend their title…the Lakers would take them out in six though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYsABYH9n_E

Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Finals Prediction

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers @ #1 Golden State Warriors

It’s interesting that one of the biggest reasons LeBron James went to Cleveland was the expectation of an improved supporting cast than he had in that last year in Miami (young Kyrie Irving over past his prime Dwyane Wade, and at worst Chris Bosh and Kevin Love would cancel one another out, although Love was regarded as superior), and yet, here we are. LeBron has carried this Cavs team throughout these playoffs. It’s not Irving or Love’s fault; both have been injured. Kevin Love had a disappointing year…for him. He was still quite capable of being a third banana. Kyrie Irving had been fantastic before injuries caught up to him. Throughout the Chicago series Irving played a role I expected Steve Nash to play for the Lakers when their big four was expected to go to the NBA Finals, which was a dangerous spot off shooter that could make a play anywhere on the court. Of course, Irving is far more capable of that. Kyrie’s health is almost as important as LeBron in this equation. Yes the Cavs have acquired some parts during the year that have helped immensely in Iman Shumpert, Timofrey Mozgov and J.R. Smith. Yes, J.R. Smith can win a game himself. Yes Tristan Thompson has become quite an underrated player who the Cavs might be better off with than Love. I just think the Warriors are too good.

I originally thought Golden State in five. I also saw everyone else seems to have the same prediction. Jalen Rose just said on commentary as much. But I mean, just look at LeBron these playoffs. His shot hasn’t been falling at all…and he’s STILL unstoppable. LeBron just finished the Eastern Conference Finals with a 30-11-9 average and his shot didn’t fall at all. Say what you want about the Hawks, I called them the worst 60 win team ever, but they were still a 60 win team. Cleveland also got by Chicago, which were quite a good team (they are probably the 90’s Knicks to LeBron’s Jordan). LeBron James is having one of the all-time sick playoff runs, easy opponents or not. Again, the Cavs have dominated with two of their signature players on the bench for a lot of the playoffs, sporting a 15-2 overall record. That’s why I don’t think it’s Warriors in five anymore.

The Warriors are absolutely stacked. They have a guy who went off for 37 in a quarter in Klay Thompson. They have crazy depth with Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Andrew Bogut. They have multiple players that can at least hinder and slow down LeBron in Draymond Green and Iguodala. The team is so good they bench a guy like David Lee, who offensively could still be a 17-8 guy today. Oh, and they have the league MVP, a guy who just dropped 30 a game and nearly shot 50-50-80%s in the Western Conference Finals in Stephen Curry. I don’t know if Shumpert, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league can handle him. I don’t think a hobbled Irving can do it. And LeBron may be able to, but it will be exhausting and may affect his offensive play. Golden State has lost three games TOTAL at Oracle Arena this season (46-3).

LeBron James has been a combo of Iverson, Magic and Jordan in these playoffs. But It’s just not going to be enough. Golden State is stacked beyond stacked.

But LeBron will keep them in it.

Warriors in 7