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Basketball

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions!

Note: I wrote in my First Round Predictions on Twitter before any of the games began. This will become especially important when you get to Raptors-Pacers.

What a crazy NBA season. We’ve got one historic team (Golden State), one team that would be historic if it weren’t for Golden State (San Antonio), LeBron leading a dysfunctional Cavs team to 57 wins and a #1 seed, Kobe’s crazy last game and two teams with bonafide stars that everyone’s counting out (and arguably rightfully so) because of the Warriors and Spurs (Thunder and Clippers). Can you imagine counting out a team with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and being completely justified in doing so? Madness right? At least it should make predicting the playoffs easier.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #8 Houston Rockets (41-41)

warriorsrockets

Houston is the NBA’s second biggest disappointment, but the only one that’s indefensible. While their main acquisition didn’t work out in Ty Lawson, the Rockets should have still been in contention for a position somewhere in the 3rd-5th seed range. And it’s embarrassing why they aren’t there. Dwight Howard just isn’t going to grow up I guess and the window of him being an elite difference maker are now long gone. He could still be a defensive force though. James Harden seemed one of the best stories in the league when he left Oklahoma City and became a star in Houston, but that good will is now gone as he’s acting like a superstar who’s yet to win anything. He’s an awful defensive player and a coach killer. What a shame all around.

Yeah, Golden State’s going to destroy them. I think one of the games will be close and the other three are double digit wins from the Warriors. Like Houston’s going to slow down Steph Curry.

Warriors in 4

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)

spursgrizzlies

The league has passed Memphis by. And no Marc Gasol is just a disaster for the Grizzlies. The Spurs have been the class of the NBA as long as they weren’t facing Golden State.

Isn’t it strange that the Western Conference is the least interesting one for once?

Spurs in 4

#3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (42-40)

thundermavericks

This may be a closer series than one would expect. While Oklahoma swept the season series 4-0, the Mavericks have been playing well, winning 7 of their last 9, to get into the playoffs. Normally I wouldn’t put much stock into that, I like how they’ve been able to win games without big games from Dirk Nowitzki. They’ve also won with a collection of some of the weakest rim protectors in recent memory (David Lee? Zaza? Nowitzki?). They also have one of the league’s best coaches in Rick Carlisle. And while he hasn’t been playing great or anything, if Dirk Nowitzki gets hot I can’t count Dallas out of anything. Nowitzki’s one of the best 15 players of all time and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Of course, Oklahoma has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, which should render most arguments moot. Dallas’s best bet is to try to win shootouts against OKC because Durant and Westbrook are getting their points. It would help if Dallas could at least slow down Enes Kanter, as he’s had a pretty great season that’s flown under the radar.

To make the case for Dallas, just don’t forget what happened in the 2014 First Round when Dallas took San Antonio to 7 games. Sure it’s a weaker Dallas team, but I don’t like counting out elite legends and elite coaches.

Thunder in 6.

#4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-29) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

clippersblazers

Portland’s a fun story. Damian Lillard has become a real house of fire (and somehow wasn’t selected for the All-Star game) while C.J. McCollum has locked up the Most Improved Player Award with a surprising 20 PPG season. Fun team for sure.

Clippers are stacked. Yeah, there are some glaring chemistry and teammate issues with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, but this team is way too talented to lose to Portland here. I think Lillard steals a game or two though.

Clippers in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #8 Detroit Pistons (44-38)

cavspistons

Congratulations to Detroit. They are the best 8th seeded Eastern Conference team by record in a long time, and would actually be the 5th seed in the West. Boy have times changed. Anyway, we could pick the reasons why the Clippers are going to beat Portland and insert them here. Yeah Cleveland has chemistry issues, but it’s not going to really matter. As a bonus, Reggie Jackson will struggle if guarded by Iman Shumpert, and Andre Drummond can get all the big 17-14 games he wants. LeBron’s too good.

Cavs in 5

#2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. #7 Indiana Pacers (45-37)

raptorspacers

My upset special of the playoffs. I was down on Toronto for the regular season and they made me eat my words there, but they don’t have a true superstar (Kyle Lowry?) and I’m not sold on Dwane Casey as a head coach. I think there are some lingering issues from last year’s playoff sweep.

As for Indiana, I believe the playoffs are about big time players making big time plays, and Paul George has come back this season and shown that he can be Indiana’s franchise player. I think he has a big series here as Indiana scores the upset.

Pacers in 6

#3 Miami Heat (48-34) vs. #6 Charlotte Hornets (48-34)

heathornets

I think Miami from top to bottom is just a better team than Charlotte. Kemba Walker’s emergence has bene impressive and Charlotte has a lot of role players who’ve played well this season. But when it comes down to a close game and someone needs to make some big shots, I’ll take a past his prime Dwyane Wade any day. Heck, I’d even take Goran Dragic. Championship players like Wade usually find ways to get some playoff wins. Think Paul Pierce in Brooklyn a couple years ago (or even last year with Washington).

Unless LINSANITY strikes…of course.

Heat in 7

#4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34) vs. #5 Boston Celtics (48-34)

hawksceltics

The Hawks are a veteran team that peaked last year. None of their guys have really stepped up from last year and it feels like the entire team regressed. They kind of feel like they are here by default.

Boston’s been an exciting team ever since they got Isaiah Thomas in the middle of last year. Hell, if they didn’t run into LeBron last year I think they could have won a playoff series. Boston is 69-38 since they got Thomas. Brad Stevens also has done an amazing job coaching Boston. I think the Celtics want this one more.

Celtics in 6

 

Basketball

The Slightly Late 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Semi-Finals

Just to show I’m not using the results of the various Game 1s that have been played, I posted my predictions on Twitter beforehand. It was a busy weekend. Let’s delve into this before the Conference Finals!

Western Conference

#5 Memphis Grizzles @ #1 Golden State Warriors

The only chance the Grizzlies have here is to really hound Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson and force them to miss shots. They have the defensive players to do it, although one of them, Mike Conley missed Game 1.

It’s going to be tough for the Grizzles because not only do they need to stop Golden State from scoring (good luck with that with MVP Curry), but they need to put up some consistent points as well. They can’t afford to lose a game where the Warriors score less than 100 points. Game 1 showed that Golden State definitely can hold down Memphis as the Grizzles only managed 86 points while Golden State did whatever they wanted. You just aren’t beating the 2015 Golden State Warriors that way I don’t think.

Memphis has been a fun tough out the past few years, but unless everyone from Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to Vince Carter and Jeff Green show up (Carter in Game 1: 1 for 7), they just aren’t winning. They are in a lot of ways, the 1990s New York Knicks. Always good, but never great.

Warriors in 6

#3 Los Angeles Clippers @ #2 Houston Rockets

How can you not be impressed with the LA Clipper team? They were down 3-2 to the San Antonio Spurs and pulled out all the stops to steal back the series. Chris Paul got hurt in Game 7, came back and put up a game that will go down as one of the all-time great playoff performances. I was absolutely impressed. The Clippers still make huge mental mistakes…they should have outright won Game 2…but for the first time I also saw their mental toughness.

The Rockets? We really don’t know anything after Rajon Rondo ruined the Mavericks’ season. That shouldn’t be held against the Rockets obviously. I believe in James Harden but no one else on that Rockets team. I made my prediction after I learned there was a good chance Paul would miss Game 1, and seeing how Game 1 played out I feel great about it. The Rockets are a one man show with the occasional Superman appearance. That would be great for 2005 I guess (it’s how the 2006 Miami Heat were built), but in 2015 that ain’t gonna fly. The Clippers showed me in the 1st round that they are a great team. (The Clippers blew the Rockets out in Houston…without Chris Paul).

Clippers in 6

Eastern Conference

#5 Washington Wizards @ #1 Atlanta Hawks

I already missed the games on this one. I have a theory that sometimes it’s easy to overrate and underrate a team because of their round 1 results. For example, I thought the Wizards were pretty lousy coming into the playoffs, but lucked out in facing a just as lousy Raptors team and beating them decisively. That caused (in my view) the Wizards bandwagon to jump up a bit. Likewise, the Hawks had a little trouble taking out the Nets, even though the Nets were a hot team at the end of the year and probably better than the Raptors. This caused the Hawks to be underrated. So I figured the Hawks would make quick work of the Wizards, but I forgot something. I forgot the Hawks had a lot of problems down the stretch too. I think the point is, the East sucks.

Anyway, I shouldn’t have predicted that a Paul Pierce team would be getting swept, especially with the playoff experience the other Wizards gained last year against Indiana. Big mistake on my part. Washington’s been here already. The Hawks really haven’t. Sure Horford has played his share of playoff games, but Atlanta’s never had this pressure of being the big favorite. I wish I could take back my games prediction at least since Washington won Game 1, but I still think the Hawks are winning in 7. Alas.

Hawks in 4

#3 Chicago Bulls @ #2 Cleveland Cavaliers

Oh boy. LeBron did not show up for Game 1 and in the current state of the Cleveland Cavaliers I don’t know if he can have these bad games anymore. I still thought Cleveland was cruising to the Finals without Kevin Love, but talent wise this Bulls team is stacked and have a lot to prove. Derrick Rose of course wants revenge from 2011. Pau Gasol has a lot to prove after he fell apart in LA. Joakim Noah hates LeBron.

This is going to be one of those series that either adds to the legacy of LeBron, or shows that perhaps he needs elite teammates. One of the defining Michael Jordan stories of course is how he overcame those tough teams when his teammates weren’t always there. The 1992 and 1993 Knicks series. The 1998 Pacers series. MJ always came through. Can LeBron come through?

I need Cleveland to sweep through the rest of the way to be 100% here, and I wouldn’t count it out.

Cavs in 5

Basketball

It’s Time Chris Paul

For Chris Paul’s sake, the Los Angeles Clippers need to win tonight. Despite pretty much being the best point guard in the NBA ever since the moment he was drafted (ok, that’s a little much, but he’s always been top 3 in the position. Only Nash and Rose can say they were better at one point), CP3 has fallen short in the one (somewhat flawed) metric that seems to matter to everyone these days: winning. I had a conversation with someone who told me they thought John Wall was just as good as CP3 because they both went to Round 2. That’s nuts.

But there’s some merit to this as well. How much a player wins in a team game usually tells a story about that player. Did that player take over (see Jordan, Michael)? Did that player shut down an opposing key player (see Olajuwon, Hakeem) that swung a series? Or did that player provide the key leadership aspect that allowed the team to become something greater than their parts (see Garnett, Kevin or Duncan, Tim)? Or lastly, did a player take a team of clearly overmatches players (other than himself) and will them to something greater than expected (again, Jordan, Duncan, Olajuwon).

At one time Chris Paul fell into that last category. CP3’s performance in a six game loss to the Lakers in the 2011 playoffs was one of the best examples of a top player going against a team by himself (CP3’s supporting cast: Carl Landry, washed up Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Marco Belinelli, when your starting lineup looks like a decent bench, that’s a bad sign). CP3 otherwise always seemed to run into other top players: Durant and Westbrook’s Thunder last year (7 game loss), a determined Grizzlies team anchored by Marc Gasol in 2013. The Spurs got a sweep in 2012. The Kobe Lakers in 2011. The last great Chauncey Billups year and Carmelo’s best playoff year in 2009…and then 2008.

2008. CP3 submits the perhaps greatest PG season ever, gets robbed of the MVP and takes care of business in round 1, pretty much establishing that Jason Kidd and the Mavericks were yesterday’s news. Paul’s supporting cast is a solid David West, a great two way player in Tyson Chandler (yes, even then Chandler was a crazy efficient offensive player), and washed up but still good shooting Peja. The Hornets went toe to toe with the Spurs, who were looking to defend their NBA Title. The Spurs, with one of the best defensive players of all time anchoring the middle, had no answer for Paul. Game 1: 17-13, Game 2: 30-12, Game 3: 35-9, Game 4: 23-6-5, Game 5: 22-14, Game 6: 21-6-8. That being said, it was only good enough for 3 wins.

It came down to Game 7 in New Orleans…and the Spurs prevailed. Paul played well of course, but it wasn’t enough. But hey, he was only 22 years old. There was more than enough time. This was in 2008.

It’s 2015 now. It’s Game 7. We’re on CP3’s home court again. It’s against The Spurs. It’s against Duncan, Parker, Manu, Pop (and now featuring Kawhi). He’s 29. It’s time CP3.

 

Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

We’ve just completed one of the better seasons in NBA storylines. For the first time in what seems like a while, the NBA Playoffs are moderately unpredictable. There are two teams in the East with a realistic chance of making the Finals, then any one of five (sorry Portland) can do the same. I could even think of conceivable longshot scenarios for the remaining three teams in the West. We’ve had MVP caliber seasons from four different players (Westbrook, Harden, Curry and Davis), and a semi-MVP season (from LeBron). It’s going to be a fun playoffs and we’re just going to dive into round 1 here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)

It’s really hard to make the case for the Pelicans here. Let’s try. Anthony Davis is ridiculous. Anthony Davis is incredible. Anthony Davis is a once in a lifetime talent. Anthony Davis carried a team with three inefficient overrated players (Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday) to the 8th seed in a loaded Western Conference. And his team beat out a team with the possessed Russell Westbrook to get that spot. It’s quite impressive. Davis just put up a PER that’s only been surpassed by Wilt, Jordan and LeBron. Unfortunately, because of his supporting cast he may just be in a similar situation as David Robinson in the early-90s.

The Warriors are too deep and too good at everything. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson just destroyed the league from the guard positions. Curry, the likely MVP of the league, was the only player this season to boast a WS/48 that was higher than Davis’ this year. The Warriors are also the best defensive team in the league, thanks to Andrew Bogut (fun fact: I knew right there that Bogut for Monta Ellis a few seasons ago was an absolutely steal for the Warriors) and Draymond Green. The Warriors are so good they willing bench David Lee, someone who could still be a 17-9 guy in the league. Then there is this gem from Bill Simmons: The Warriors are one of seven teams to have a .800 winning percentage and a points differential of plus-10. The other six? ’71 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92 Bulls, ’96 Bulls, ’97 Bulls and ’08 Celtics. Two points to note from that. One: That’s three Michael Jordan teams, which is ridiculous. And two: all six of those teams won the title. All of them. It’s going to be hard to not pick the Warriors here.

Davis is worth a win with some crazy 35-17-6-3-3 game or something. But Golden State just isn’t losing here.

Warriors in 5

#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

A very interesting match-up that is a lot closer than it seems.

There are some interesting parallels here. Both the Rockets and Mavericks made controversial mid-season moves, and neither really worked out. Rajon Rondo has feuded with Rick Carlisle and hasn’t fit in with Monta Ellis in the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Smith brought his normal inefficient offense to Houston and didn’t provide the help the injured Dwight Howard and James Harden needed. Both teams have a defensive monster at center…Howard for Houston and Tyson Chandler for Dallas, although one of those isn’t as good as he once was. Both Carlisle and Kevin McHale, the two head coaches, were Celtics. Both teams are from Texas. Ok I’m nitpicking now.

Here’s the thing. The James Harden-led Rockets have yet to win a playoff series. The main pieces of the Mavericks: Carlisle as a coach, Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler have all won the title before, and three of those did it in Dallas. Dallas proved to be a tough out (the only one) last year against San Antonio because they have guys who knows that it takes to get the job done in the playoffs.

When you really look at it, how do the Rockets win this series? They are virtually a one man offensive team. The Mavericks are built to stop those types of teams with Chandler in the middle. Dallas played Houston very tough this season as well: Houston won on the road by 7 and at home by 5 and 3. Dallas won one game in Dallas by 11. If Nowitzki gets into his prime form, and Ellis doesn’t shoot them out of games, I don’t know if Houston can contain Dallas.

The problem is Nowitzki regress enough this season to cause concern about taking over a playoff series. I don’t believe in Monta Ellis, and I still don’t see the Rondo fit. Chandler will cause all kinds of problems for Harden, but I don’t think Dallas will be able to pull it out. If this was last year’s Nowitzki, I’d pick them.

Rockets in 7.

#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. #6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Poor Chris Paul. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this script before. Gregg Popovich just knows how to create defensive schemes that limit Paul. In 2008 the Spurs beat Paul’s great Hornets team in a New Orleans. In 2012 the Spurs swept Paul’s Clippers. This is one of those I need to see it happen situations before I can take the Clippers.

The other part of this equation: the Spurs are basketball’s best team this last one-eighth of the season. The ageless Tim Duncan has been on top of his game. Kawhi Leonard is an elite defender…basically the new age Bruce Bowen only with a crazy offensive game to go with it…and perhaps a top 20 player in the league right now. Tony Parker is peaking. Everything is going right for the Spurs.

Maybe this is poor analysis, but I need to see it from the Clippers before I pick them against San Antonio. Great Chris Paul and Blake Griffin seasons be damned.

Spurs in 6

#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

Portland just hasn’t been the same since LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his hand and Wes Mathews was out for the season. Portland is merely 19-19 in their last 38 games and only got the 4th seed due to the NBA’s weird seeding rules for division champs.

It doesn’t help Portland that the Grizzlies are one of the toughest defense teams out there. Marc Gasol is a former defensive player of the year, Tony Allen is always a threat to win the award and Mike Conley is as tough as he comes. There’s the general overall toughness of Zach Randolph too.

Portland is just trending downward. Memphis is just a tough team to beat and Portland’s injuries just makes this way too tough. Damian Lillard needs to have the series of his life for Portland to have chance here. Memphis has home court too, although that won’t even come into play here.

Grizzles in 4.

Eastern Conference

#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22) vs. #8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)

The Nets are the sneaky hot team that might get some “upset special” calls. I thought that a bit too, but then that meant I was relying on Deron Williams (washed up at 30 apparently, overrated to begin with), Joe Johnson (anyone notice the Hawks have had a great run since Johnson left them?) and Brook Lopez (always a threat to go back to a good offensive player who somehow can’t rebound despite being 7 foot). The Nets are the 2004 New York Knicks. Congrats.

I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, and I think they may be one of the worst 60 win teams ever, but I can get into that when they are playing the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Until then, let’s just go with the obvious and take the Hawks here.

Hawks in 4.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42)

Another easy call here. The Celtics have been super hot and 29-12 in the last half of the season. Isaiah Thomas has been a key asset and the Celtics are just gelling. Brad Stevens has proven to be a great coach.

The Cavs started 19-20. They are 34-10 since. LeBron is in near peak form, which really might be better than anyone else in the league still. Kyrie Irving has improved leaps and bounds. Kevin Love, while not at the level he once was, actually had a good season that no one realizes. Mozgov, Shumpert and JR have been great pieces.

I’ll give Boston one because Thomas might have a nice 30 pointer in there. But…yeah, not yet Boston. Not yet.

Cavs in 5

#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32) vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)

Jason Kidd deserves something for bringing the Bucks to the playoffs. But I mean, this should be as obvious as the other two series we’ve covered so far.

Sure the Bucks will play it tough. But they just don’t have the talent. Michael-Carter Williams is a fun…but probably bad player. Is The Greak Freak ready to have the series of his life? Even so, that may not be enough.

I expect the Bulls to really be tough this year. Pau Gasol provides that Championship experience. Mirotic is a great bench piece. Jimmy Butler is the best player on this team and is probably the front runner for Most Improved Player of the Year. The Bulls don’t need the old Derrick Rose to beat these Bucks.

Bulls in 5

#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36)

Paul Pierce gets to face the Raptors again in round 1!

No one outside of Toronto or Washington cares about this series. The Raptors are 12-16 in their last 28. The Wizards are 13-15 in their last 28. Not inspiring here. John Wall went from fun young player to overrated (as did Bradley Beal, really). Kyle Lowry went from underrated to irrelevant. For DeMar DeRozan, see Beal. The only player I really trust on either of these teams is Paul Pierce, which is pretty telling (I actually like Jonas as well for Toronto, so I’m lying here).

I’ll pick the Wizards though, because they have some playoff experience under their belt…they almost made the Conference Finals last year afterall…and Paul Pierce is the type of veteran that can help here. The Wizards are the best of the rest of the East (outside of the top 3), but that doesn’t mean they are any good. To be honest, it doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with.

But I need a reason to believe in Toronto and I don’t have one. At least I have one with Washington.

Wizards in 6