Tag Archives: Peyton Manning

Football

Super Bowl 50 Prediction

We’re 6-4 heading into Super Bowl 50. At first glance Super Bowl 50 looked like a really easy pick. But its definitely not.

Super Bowl 50: Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (17-1)

Denver’s defense is terrifying. What they did to Tom Brady and the Patriots last week was both horrific and beautiful to watch. Without blitzing they got to Brady again and again and were the reason Denver won.

But Cam Newton’s terrifying as well. A deserving MVP who this year became the player we all wanted Michael Vick to be 12 years ago. The player Donovan McNabb never became. The player Dante Culpepper was for one season and then never again. Cam Newton has no good receivers and a great receiving Tight End in Greg Olsen.

All Carolina needs to do is get a 7-0 lead and I think it’ll be over. Denver needs to play a smashmouth ugly game to win and I think Cam Newton will be able to make enough plays to beat that style. If Carolina gets a 7-0 lead Peyton Manning has to score. While Denver did that twice early against New England, the last three quarter it was back to nothing for Denver. Carolina led the league in opponent possessions ending in an interception at 12.4%. I think Peyton will throw one or two. Carolina’s got Cam and they should have enough on D even without Thomas Davis.

Panthers 24, Broncos 17

 

 

Football

2016 NFL Conference Finals Predictions!

We went 3-1 last week as all the home team pulled it out (after all the road teams won the Wildcard Round). We’re 5-3 for the playoffs. I think both of these are relatively east selections so let’s get to it.

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-4)

Look, Denver was losing to a beaten up Pittsburgh Steelers team before Fitzgerald Tousaaint fumbled and Denver finally put a TD drive together. This Patriots team (which is healthy, no less) is way better than that beaten up Steelers team. Blame whoever you want or whatever, Peyton Manning’s arm, Bronco WRs dropping passes, New England is the better team and should be able to avenge their loss to Denver in the regular season.

Patriots 24, Broncos 13

Arizona Cardinals (14-3) @ Carolina Panthers (16-1)

I think the weather plays a big factor here. It’s going to be freezing a day after a lot of snow. Carolina proved they were no fluke as they horsewhipped Seattle in the first half last week (before going into the deep freeze in the 2nd half). Arizona was disappointing last week as they barely survived Green Bay at home. The Panthers are the best team in football and after watching last week I don’t see the Cardinals, great as they seem, beating the Panthers in Carolina in a cold weather game.

Panthers 31, Cardinals 21

 

 

Football

2014-2015 NFL Divisional Round Predictions!

Went 3-1 last week. That Ravens-Steelers game was always going to be the toughest to call.

Anyway, Divisional Round, let’s do it!

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The Ravens won a frigid game in Pittsburgh where they shut down the Steeler run game (that was missing La’Veon Bell) and had Joe Flacco continue his run as one of the best postseason quarterbacks of all time (how crazy does that sound?)

Does that mean they are beating New England? Maybe…

The Patriots and Ravens have arguably been the two most successful NFL franchises of the past 15 years. The first notable battle between the two though actually took place during the regular season of the Patriots perfect run. The Ravens got close to being the only team to beat the Patriots during that regular season. Two years later the Ravens shocked the Patriots in Foxboro by beating up Tom Brady and having Ray Rice run all over them. If you told me the Bill Belichick-Brady era was over right there I would have believed you. That’s how bad it looked. Two years after that the Patriots and Ravens met again in the AFC Title game, where a missed field goal made the difference for New England. The very next year they met in the AFC Title game again, but this time took care of business and won the Super Bowl a couple of weeks afterwards.

You’ve got two of the best (if not the best) coaches in the NFL in Belichick and John Harbaugh. A surefire Hall of Fame Quarterback in Brady against one of the best playoff QBs there is in Flacco. And you have two teams that have a genuine rivalry going at it once again. It’s going to be a tough game of course, and it will help the Ravens that the weather will just be like it was in Pittsburgh last week.

Forget all the stats though. I think a fire was lit under New England’s ass this season after week 4. I think something happened to Belichick when he got asked if Tom Brady was going to be benched. I think something got to Brady. I don’t see this Patriots team going quietly. That and this is the best Patriots D we’ve seen in some time as well. Close as always, but I can’t help but feel New England is out for blood.

Patriots 24, Ravens 17

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

This is going to be short.

Don’t let the midseason distractions fool you. The Seahawks are still football’s best team. They were absolutely rolling at the end of the season. Once in their last six games did a team manage to score double digits against them (Eagles, 14). The Seahawks also have some wins against legitimately good teams: they beat Green Bay and Denver early on. They had a top 10 ranked offense and the best defense in football by traditional means. DVOA wise, they were top 5 in both. Seattle is the team to beat. Period.

The Panthers didn’t even look that great last week. Somehow the Ryan Lindley led Cardinals actually hung in the game for a while, even though they were led by Ryan Lindley. The Panthers are an okay team. Seattle is a great team.

I think Seattle wants to make a statement too.

Seahawks 45, Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) @ Green Bay Packers (12-4)

One of the more interesting statistics here: Dallas was 8-0 on the road this season, Green Bay was 8-0 at home.

I wrote last week that this is Dallas’ best team in years due to some convincing wins and overall great play from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Officiating controversies aside, I thought it was impressive Dallas won last week against Detroit with Murray being held to 75 yards and a 3.75 average.

The thing is, Green Bay is just better than Detroit. Aaron Rodgers might have locked up a MVP award this season and his gutsy performance against Detroit in Week 17 just showed he’s at the top of his game. Overall the Packers are better offensively and defensively than Dallas, although neither has a particularly strong defense. Could Dallas rack up some points on Green Bay? Sure. But I think there’s a better chance Green Bay racks up points on the Cowboys.

Here’s what Dallas needs to bank on. Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury stemming from the game against Detroit in Week 17. It’s a cold weather game, which won’t help Rodgers. If Dallas can get to Rodgers, they may be able to turn this one in their favor. On their side, Murray needs to run the ball right through Green Bay’s defense. And Tony Romo just can’t make any big mistakes.

This would be a good game plan…but I think Aaron Rodgers is too tough to lose that way. Sure the calf is torn…but it was injured against Detroit too, right?

Packers 31, Cowboys 23

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ Denver Broncos (12-4) 

Come on, we all knew Andrew the Giant was taking care of business against the Bengals. There’s nothing else really to say about the Colts. I know football is a team sport, but if there was one guy in the NFL right now that is carrying his team it is Andrew Luck. I can’t imagine the Colts being a playoff team without Luck. They have by far the worst rushing attack in football. Their defense is suspect. And a lot of it doesn’t matter because of Luck.

The Colts got smacked in a similar Divisional Round game last year when Brady (and really, LaGarrett Blount) and the Patriots scored 43 and beat down the Colts before they had a chance to make anything happen. Same idea here right? The Colts are up against an aging but still great and legendary quarterback in Peyton Manning, and a running back that seemingly came out of nowhere in C.J. Anderson. The difference is that per DVOA, the Broncos were top 5 on both sides of the ball. Everything for this game points to Denver winning this one with ease.

But…

Well, what’s with Denver’s offense change? How are the Denver Broncos, with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time who was throwing 400 yard games with no problem earlier in the season, suddenly taking a rush first approach with C.J. Anderson? I understand that Anderson was looked nice…but what in the world? I think something’s wrong with Peyton. It might have just been a moment. We’ve all read the stories of his arm being weak. He’s 38 years old. He had serious neck surgery a few years ago. I can’t explain why the Broncos on offense are suddenly relying so much on C.J. Anderson. Maybe it was to rest Peyton. I don’t know. Combine this with the fact that Peyton Manning is one of the most inconsistent big game playoff QBs ever, and suddenly I think a real upset is in the making.

This is one of those perfect scenarios in sports. Peyton against his old team. His successor lighting the league up. I think we remember this game as the day Andrew Luck truly arrived and we know Peyton’s true best is behind him. Bold I know. But I think it’s time.

Colts 24, Broncos 21

Football

NFL 2014-2015 Wildcard Predictions

NFL Wildcard weekend is upon us. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Your NFC South Division “winners”, the Panthers, have not lost in December after a seven game non-winning streak (six losses and one tie). They’ve only beaten one team with a winning record (Detroit), and that was week 2. While they’re obviously hot, it’s not like they beat the cream of the crop in these last four weeks. It is impressive though that they beat both New Orleans and Atlanta on the road by a combined score of 75-13.

Yet the Panthers are big favorites over the Cardinals. The Cards have been lost after losing QB Carson Palmer for a second time this season…and for the remainder of the season. While Drew Stanton filled in at least respectably, he went down as well and left the Cardinals with Ryan Lindley. To give you a perspective on Lindley’s career, it took him to his sixth NFL Start to throw his first touchdown pass. He had seven interceptions already. Even tossing his first two TD scores wasn’t enough to lead the Cardinals past the downtrodden 49ers in week 17.

Look, the Cardinals have a much better defense, a better coach (Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera for sure) and really probably a better everything else, but this quarterback situation is brutal. There were stories that the Cards were calling Kurt Warner to play for him. Kurt Warner! He hasn’t played in five years! And anytime your QB is so bad that your fans are clamoring for the return of Drew Stanton…you aren’t winning a playoff game. It’s a shame for the Cardinals season for sure, but that’s just the way it goes.

For anyone who thinks a losing team can’t win a playoff game, history is actually on Carolina’s side here. The 2010-2011 Seahawks won their division at 7-9 and then beat New Orleans 41-36.

Panthers 17, Cardinals 9

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) 

Pittsburgh won the tight AFC North Division, a division that seemed to be going Cincinnati’s way all season long. Unlike the Panthers, who won all December games over subpar competition, the Steelers won all their December games against good competition, beating the Bengals twice and the 9-7 Chiefs as well. At one point the entire AFC North was close and it looked as if any of the four teams could win the division, but the Steelers won all their key games down the stretch, including a huge victory over the Ravens on November 2nd

The Ravens though, were no slouches toward the end of the season either, winning five of their last seven. They got a random career year out of running back Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco had what can arguably be considered his best career regular season. The Ravens also had top 10 offenses and defenses per DVOA, which shows a solid balance. John Harbaugh has this Ravens teams going for sure. A bonus too is that the Steelers will be without their star back Le’Veon Bell.

So why am I not sold on Baltimore? Well of their ten victories, they won one game against a team with a winning record, which was Pittsburgh in Baltimore during week 2. After that? They beat Cleveland at Cleveland, Carolina, the Bucs, the Falcons, the Titans, New Orleans, Miami, the Jaguars and finally Cleveland again. All of their losses came against teams with winning records. Not inspiring to say the least.

Ben Roethlisberger has also posted a career near 5K yard year. I don’t think he’s going down in one playoff game after that.

Steelers 24, Ravens 13

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

I could probably just write Andrew Luck vs. Andy Dalton and be done with it…but football doesn’t really work that way.

To be honest though, my confidence in each of these two QBs is what makes the result easy to determine. I mean, you watched last year’s playoffs right? Andrew Luck willed his team back from a 38-10 deficient to beat the Chiefs. The Bengals meanwhile got beat at home against the Chargers 10-27.

This year? The Colts are clearly one level below the elite, beating Baltimore, Texans and even the Bengals, but also had all five losses come against top teams (Denver, pre-Sanchez Philly, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas). The Bengals even recently had a victory over Denver, but that’s amidst a lot of questions about Peyton Manning. The Bengals had a chance to lock up the division last week and in typical Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengal fashion, they lost.

I just can’t not take a team quarterbacked by Andrew Luck here…in Indy no loss.

Colts 31, Bengals 10

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Two long suffering franchises (in Detroit’s case, very long) that have a chance to make a run in the NFC. This is Dallas’ best crack at a Superbowl appearance since they blew the 2008 NFC Divisional game to the Giants. As for Detroit, well, this is their first real chance since Barry.

I’m not sure what to make of this Lions team to be honest. If I told you before the season that your new coach would be Jim Caldwell and your megastar receiver, Calvin Johnson, would have an off year, would you think you would be 11-5 and heading to the playoffs? Of course not. So what’s changed? Well, Detroit suddenly has one of the best defensive units in football, and the best rushing one at that per DVOA. And with Ndamukong Suh leading the way and appealing his one game suspension, that defense is going to be the key to victory for Detroit.

On the opposite Dallas has the best rusher in football: DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo has put together his best season in what feels to be a last gasp to repair his reputation and prove he is in fact one of football’s best QBs. Overall I think this Cowboys team is just too good from top to bottom to lose to Detroit. It doesn’t help that Detroit still feels like an undisciplined team after Suh stepped on Aaron Rodgers.

The Cowboys have had some convincing wins this season and I’ll be surprised to see Detroit be the one to end it just like that.

Cowboys 23, Lions 16