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Basketball

2017-2018 NBA Season Predictions

The Path to Warriors-Cavs IV? Sure it looks likely, but we’ll see. Sure was a crazy off-season.

Atlantic Division

Celtics: 53-29 (2)

Raptors: 46-36 (5)

Sixers: 30-52

Knicks: 26-56

Nets: 25-57

                Boston I think is pretty obvious for the top of the Atlantic (it was less obvious last year when I called it). Sure it may take time to integrate Hayward and Kyrie, and the defense overall has some holes losing Avery Bradley. But come on, it’s the East. Toronto is trying this new three pointers everywhere thing, which would be fine if they actually had good three point shooters. There’s enough talent there though to be in the thick of things again. I would love to give the Sixers a huge 2010 Thunder leap, but I’m sorry there is nothing that makes me think Joel Embiid can play anything resembling a full NBA schedule. Which is a shame, because he could be a difference maker. Knicks are thankfully past the Carmelo era and should be bad, but again wins are just going to appear in the East. A potential defensive disaster with Hardaway Jr. and Kanter too. The Nets should show some signs of life, and I’m sure if you ignore FG% D’Angelo Russell will be a fun fantasy guy, but we have a long way to go here.

Central Division

Cavaliers: 54-28 (1)

Bucks: 49-33 (4)

Pistons: 38-44 (8)

Pacers: 32-50

Bulls: 21-61

                Maybe the Cavs actually fall behind the Bucks in the standings but once it becomes playoff time, it won’t matter. Giannis might just be the future, and the Bucks have a cool (and long) team otherwise. They might be the 18-19 team to be honest. Detroit is kind of a mess and unless Andre Drummond wants to become the star I thought he would be a few years ago I don’t see them really getting past this point (Reggie Jackson at one time was probably the most overrated player in the league). Like Milwaukee, Indiana has a future star on their hands in Turner, but once again we’re not there yet. Giving the Bulls 21 wins might be high. I’m calling it now though, Lauri Markkanen will at least be a solid player in this league and not a complete disaster.

Southeast Division

Wizards: 51-31 (3)

Hornets: 43-39 (6)

Heat: 42-40 (7)

Magic: 28-54

Hawks: 23-59

                Washington definitely has an outside shot at the Finals. They almost beat Boston, and if the Cavs aren’t ready with IT2 it could happen. The Wall+Beal combo is good, not great, but good in the Eastern Conference gets you far. The Hornets’ Steve Clifford is a very good coach and while Dwight will probably be the same cohesion destroyer he’s been since he left Orlando, his rim protection should help a lot. Miami was the hottest team in basketball somehow, finishing at 30-11. There’s some flukiness to that though, especially when you are relying on Dion Waiters as part of that equations. The Hawks join the Knicks, Nets and Bulls in the “jeeze these teams are bad” club for the East.

Northwest Division

Thunder: 54-28 (4)

Timberwolves: 50-32 (5)

Nuggets: 45-37 (6)

Trail Blazers: 43-39 (7)

Jazz: 37-45

                A real tough division here. I don’t even think OKC is guaranteed the top of the division. Westbrook-Carmelo-George is of course a sexy trio in name value, but I’m not sure how they are all supposed to work together on offense. Carmelo will probably be fine to be honest, finally in a role that makes sense (third best player on his team, potentially hot offensive option that can win games). If his ego is fine with that, then that works perfectly. Can George be a good off the ball weapon? We all know Westbrook will be handling at all times. The rest of the team is a dumpster fire though. Minnesota could be a crazy surprise if Jimmy Butler is the superstar he was turning into in Chicago. Butler, KAT, Wiggins, so much potential for a great season here. I could see them beating OKC in a playoff series too. Denver has some cool additions this season too, specifically Paul Millsap. Him and Jokic are an exciting front court that should have Denver’s offense at an elite level all season. Portland is kinda stuck where they are, with one really good guard, one good guard and a lot of pieces. I don’t know how they get better. Utah should be good defensively with Gobert, but I’m not sure where the offense is supposed to come from.

Pacific Division

Warriors: 69-13 (1)

Clippers: 40-42

Lakers: 38-44

Suns: 28-54

Kings: 27-55

                Obviously Golden State. There’s a lot of random hype about the Clippers, and I love the Danilo Gallinari addition, but come on now, you don’t drop Chris Paul and expect to be close to the level you were at before. Lakers have a lot of exciting young pieces and I think will surprise. Ball is probably going to be a fun offensive option in the passing game and I think Brandon Ingram will look a lot better. Brook Lopez, while flawed, is still a notable addition too. The Suns have Devin Booker so there’s that. The Kings have who I think can win Rookie of the Year in Fox…although who knows who’s playing how much in Sacramento. Apparently Vince Carter started some pre-season games. Vince Carter!

Southwest Division

Rockets: 62-20 (2)

Spurs: 59-23 (3)

Pelicans: 42-40 (8)

Mavericks: 39-43

Grizzlies: 36-46

                There’s no way you can sell me on a Mike D’Antoni team led by Chris Paul being bad. For all the talk that James Harden can’t play off the ball he was fine in Oklahoma City. Too bad they’ll probably lose to the Spurs in Round 2. Speaking of the Spurs, sure I have questions about LaMarcus Aldridge, but Leonard (my MVP last year) is there and he’s a destructive force at both ends of the floor. It’s not just that I don’t completely believe in the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins pairing (because of Cousins), but what they surround them with isn’t good. Jrue Holliday gets all the credit in the world for a fluke All-Star game appearance five years ago in a bad East. He’s not good. Dallas has nice young pieces (Smith and Noel) and the aging Dirk, but that’s not nearly enough. Expect Mike Conley and Marc Gasol to be on the trade block, because Memphis is a shell of its former self and I don’t see their old school style succeeding…although I said that last year.

                Warriors over Cavs in 5 again!

Basketball

It’s Not the Players To Blame…

Criticizing Kevin Durant for leaving the Thunder to play for the 73-9 Warriors isn’t fair.

Oh yeah, it was an unpopular choice for sure. The idea that Durant, at the time the third best player in basketball, would join a 73 win team that had the second best player in the basketball and an entire array of basketball talent was disappointing (to say the least) from a competitive standpoint. When you play basketball in the playground, you never want to stack the team on one side. What fun is that? Legends like Magic, Larry and Michael talked about how they never would have joined one another, they wanted to beat one another. Quite frankly, it seemed like Durant, and LeBron before him (and others) took the coward’s way out. But they didn’t. They did the right thing. And it isn’t their fault that it had to happen that way. I’ll wait until the end of the article about whose fault it is. But first, let’s go through the reasons of why you can’t blame them for making the moves they made.

                Fair or not, everything’s measured through the Championship.

Maybe if Ewing somehow played with MJ instead of against him we’d remember him in a more positive, different light.

                As a New York Knicks fan, I’ve toyed with the idea that Patrick Ewing was overrated and the Knicks played better without him (the Ewing theory). But that’s not fair. He’s properly rated (mostly outside of New York) and the Knicks franchise hasn’t been the same since he left. But his legacy is of course, that he wasn’t good enough to be the best player for a title team. His failures are measured more than his successes. How about Kevin Garnett? What would we think of his career if he hadn’t left Minnesota and never won that title in Boston? Charles Barkley and Karl Malone are known as two of Michael Jordan’s victims. Dirk Nowitzki played out of his freakin mind to shed the label of a playoff choker. Heck, fans killed Kobe for not winning his own ring until 2009, even though he had three with Shaq. Some guys move to get their rings. Some guys don’t. Would we be criticizing Steve Nash’s MVPs if he had won the title during one of them?

There’s no reason players shouldn’t go out and have the best career they possibly could.

You think Bosh preferred this or carrying subpar Raptor teams to 40 wins every year?

                So how much does legacy mean to these players? For some of them it matters greatly. In fact, I’d argue the biggest difference between players then and players now is that players then cared about their legacy (especially MJ) and now, not so much. They care about their brands now. And you know what, I totally agree. Right now there are people who think Kevin Durant is the best player in basketball. And that’s GREAT for the Kevin Durant brand. If he could guarantee that by going to Golden State, good for him! LeBron thought playing for the Miami Heat was best for him and his brand. We all trashed him for doing it, but he came out of Miami as someone who’s compared to Michael Jordan without someone blinking an eye. He came out of it as the undisputed best player in the world. Does that happen in Cleveland? You think LeBron came back to Cleveland just for the loyalty? No, he came back because it was his best shot at a title. And he was right. These players are grown adults and, like any one of us, should be doing what’s best for themselves. What’s best for their families. What’s best for their money and brand. You think Chris Bosh really cares that people called him soft when joining Miami after those four years changed his career? Why do these adults owe the fans? Because the fans pay money to see them play and buy their gear?

Past players didn’t have to go through what players do today.

Of course Bird wouldn’t have to leave McHale and Parish to win…

Let’s put it this way, if there were 30 teams in basketball in the 80s, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird would have been carrying shit franchises just like LeBron had to. Magic, Bird and MJ can all talk about being loyal and wanting to beat one another, but they also either had stacked teams (McHale, Parish, DJ for Bird, Worthy, Abdul-Jabbar for Magic…and both teams had good role players) or in MJ’s case, was delivered elite-great talent. One of the reason fans are loyal to Kobe is because he allegedly had that old school mentality of being loyal. Of course, that was fiction, Kobe demanded a trade in 2008, rejected going to Chicago for Luol Deng and Ben Gordon cause he thought the Bulls were demolishing their team, and only stayed as the Lakers delivered Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum finally came around. I don’t see Kobe carrying around 45 win teams throughout the late 2000s, let’s just say that (I think there’s some truth for that with MJ too). So, the lesson from the Kobe situation is…

It’s the owners’ fault, not the players.

                Let’s look at the major players that switched to “better” teams. Even the ones that weren’t criticized much for it.

LeBron James

The Decision was embarrassing sure. But what exactly did Cleveland do to keep LeBron around? He carried an absolutely dreadful 2007 Cavs team to the Finals. Let’s actually look at that team for a second. 2nd scorer? Larry Hughes. Hughes the very next year was one of the joke contract New York Knicks. After that we have Drew Gooden, knucklehead that never reached his potential. You had a past his prime Ilgauskas. Role playing Anderson Varejao. Eric Snow was the starting point guard and averaged a whopping 4 and 4 in 23 MPG that season on 42% shooting. Without LeBron this team is at best 25-57. And this was a FINALS team. Let’s see what moves Cleveland made to bring in that Scottie Pippen or Pau Gasol.

For the next season, they added a washed up Ben Wallace and decent shooter Wally Szczerbiak. Both were complete non-factors.

Not quite Scottie Pippen is it…

For 08-09, the Cavs make a big splash by adding scorer Mo Williams! Mo has the best year of his career and makes an All-Star Team. Of course, Williams isn’t a difference maker at all, never made an All-NBA team in his life, never sniffed an All-Star Game before or after this year and shot under 35% in four of the six games against Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals. But hey, it’s something!

The next year, the Cavs add a 36 year old Shaquille O’Neal, who missed half the season and was a complete non-factor. They also add Antawn Jamison. Jamison, always a one way player at this point would seem to be the difference maker. Well, my favorite Jamison Cavs memory is making 2010 Kevin Garnett look like 2008 Kevin Garnett in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals (a big difference, KG was a 14/7 guy in 2010 after surgery in 2009. KG never scored less than 18 in this series, with a huge 22-12 on 11/19 in the clincher. And Jamison was his primary defender). Jamison was also poor in the series as well.

A 33 year old scorer with no defense and a point guard who had one good (not great, but good) year was the best they could do. And we blame LeBron for leaving?

Chris Paul

Can’t forget about CP3, who demanded a trade to LA and only didn’t get hell for it because of the Laker veto situation that made David Stern to be the bigger evil. Paul had a good team around him as the Hornets were excellent in 07-08. David West was a solid big man. Peja Stojakovic was at the end of his prime, but still a sharpshooter. Tyson Chandler just came around as a defensive and rebounding force (and would win the title with Dallas in that role, as well as help New York become relevant again). Bonzi Wells and Morris Peterson were effective pieces too. This Hornets team was a game away from the Western Conference Finals.

The next year Chandler only plays half the season and Peja slips. Hornets don’t improve personnel wise in any way. Peterson becomes a 12 MPG guy, and Wells is gone. Hornets fall into a losing in Round 1 team.

Chris Paul gets hurt, but the team remains relatively unchanged other than trading Chandler for Emeka Okafor, who was a one way guy (on defense) his whole career. Chandler for Okafor makes sense when you look at the statline. Of course, Chandler was (and is) a much better player than Okafor. Two emerging young players come to light though, Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison.

Collison is traded for Trevor Ariza and midway Thornton is traded for Carl Landry. Hornets are stuck as a First Round team again, although with an injured West Paul takes the Lakers to six games anyway (one of the best forgotten one man shows in recent NBA history).

Switching out a bunch of role players, trading Chandler for Okafor. Way to trap Chris Paul on a one and done team. And you wonder why he wanted to play for the Lakers…and didn’t mind the Clippers with Blake Griffin.

Dwight Howard

Dwight had led the 2009 Magic to a surprising NBA Finals berth. Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson were all interesting options around him, especially since Dwight wasn’t one to take a lot of shots. Still, this is what Orlando built for Dwight.

Orlando admittedly takes a good shot with Vince Carter. Unfortunately, it’s a past his prime Vince Carter. Magic lose in the ECF.

Carter continues to be a non-factor, Turkoglu is losing his edge, Lewis only played 25 games (and was probably off PEDs). Jason Richardson was a decent addition I guess. To get Dwight elite help the Magic laughably added Gilbert Arenas, who was beyond done at this point.

Penny and T-Mac should be embarrassed their jersey number was used here.

Ryan Anderson emerges as a viable option while Nelson, Turkoglu and Richardson all regress. Arenas, Carter and Lewis are all gone.

Past his prime Vince Carter, a done Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson. Just the elite star Dwight was looking for. (Although, to be fair, Dwight is a headcase anyway).

Kevin Durant

Ahha, how can I spin Kevin Durant into this conversation? He just left the guy who won MVP! Well let me ask you something. If your owner, if your boss told you he was going to put money ahead of building a better team or organization. How would you feel? You’d potentially want to leave, right? Well, I present to you the following:

James Harden: October 27, 2012: Traded by the Oklahoma City Thunder with Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to the Houston Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, a 2013 1st round draft pick (Steven Adams was later selected), a 2013 2nd round draft pick (Alex Abrines was later selected) and a 2014 1st round draft pick (Mitch McGary was later selected).

Why was that done? Because OKC didn’t want to go over the luxury tax to pay Harden. You know, the guy who was top three in the MVP race this year. He immediately made the Rockets a Western Conference force. And it was thought Harden was good at that point too. The Thunder put money over winning the title, there’s no way around that. And if Oklahoma City wasn’t serious about winning the title…

….how can I blame Kevin Durant for going to a team that was?

Basketball

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions!

Note: I wrote in my First Round Predictions on Twitter before any of the games began. This will become especially important when you get to Raptors-Pacers.

What a crazy NBA season. We’ve got one historic team (Golden State), one team that would be historic if it weren’t for Golden State (San Antonio), LeBron leading a dysfunctional Cavs team to 57 wins and a #1 seed, Kobe’s crazy last game and two teams with bonafide stars that everyone’s counting out (and arguably rightfully so) because of the Warriors and Spurs (Thunder and Clippers). Can you imagine counting out a team with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and being completely justified in doing so? Madness right? At least it should make predicting the playoffs easier.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #8 Houston Rockets (41-41)

warriorsrockets

Houston is the NBA’s second biggest disappointment, but the only one that’s indefensible. While their main acquisition didn’t work out in Ty Lawson, the Rockets should have still been in contention for a position somewhere in the 3rd-5th seed range. And it’s embarrassing why they aren’t there. Dwight Howard just isn’t going to grow up I guess and the window of him being an elite difference maker are now long gone. He could still be a defensive force though. James Harden seemed one of the best stories in the league when he left Oklahoma City and became a star in Houston, but that good will is now gone as he’s acting like a superstar who’s yet to win anything. He’s an awful defensive player and a coach killer. What a shame all around.

Yeah, Golden State’s going to destroy them. I think one of the games will be close and the other three are double digit wins from the Warriors. Like Houston’s going to slow down Steph Curry.

Warriors in 4

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)

spursgrizzlies

The league has passed Memphis by. And no Marc Gasol is just a disaster for the Grizzlies. The Spurs have been the class of the NBA as long as they weren’t facing Golden State.

Isn’t it strange that the Western Conference is the least interesting one for once?

Spurs in 4

#3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (42-40)

thundermavericks

This may be a closer series than one would expect. While Oklahoma swept the season series 4-0, the Mavericks have been playing well, winning 7 of their last 9, to get into the playoffs. Normally I wouldn’t put much stock into that, I like how they’ve been able to win games without big games from Dirk Nowitzki. They’ve also won with a collection of some of the weakest rim protectors in recent memory (David Lee? Zaza? Nowitzki?). They also have one of the league’s best coaches in Rick Carlisle. And while he hasn’t been playing great or anything, if Dirk Nowitzki gets hot I can’t count Dallas out of anything. Nowitzki’s one of the best 15 players of all time and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Of course, Oklahoma has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, which should render most arguments moot. Dallas’s best bet is to try to win shootouts against OKC because Durant and Westbrook are getting their points. It would help if Dallas could at least slow down Enes Kanter, as he’s had a pretty great season that’s flown under the radar.

To make the case for Dallas, just don’t forget what happened in the 2014 First Round when Dallas took San Antonio to 7 games. Sure it’s a weaker Dallas team, but I don’t like counting out elite legends and elite coaches.

Thunder in 6.

#4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-29) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

clippersblazers

Portland’s a fun story. Damian Lillard has become a real house of fire (and somehow wasn’t selected for the All-Star game) while C.J. McCollum has locked up the Most Improved Player Award with a surprising 20 PPG season. Fun team for sure.

Clippers are stacked. Yeah, there are some glaring chemistry and teammate issues with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, but this team is way too talented to lose to Portland here. I think Lillard steals a game or two though.

Clippers in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #8 Detroit Pistons (44-38)

cavspistons

Congratulations to Detroit. They are the best 8th seeded Eastern Conference team by record in a long time, and would actually be the 5th seed in the West. Boy have times changed. Anyway, we could pick the reasons why the Clippers are going to beat Portland and insert them here. Yeah Cleveland has chemistry issues, but it’s not going to really matter. As a bonus, Reggie Jackson will struggle if guarded by Iman Shumpert, and Andre Drummond can get all the big 17-14 games he wants. LeBron’s too good.

Cavs in 5

#2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. #7 Indiana Pacers (45-37)

raptorspacers

My upset special of the playoffs. I was down on Toronto for the regular season and they made me eat my words there, but they don’t have a true superstar (Kyle Lowry?) and I’m not sold on Dwane Casey as a head coach. I think there are some lingering issues from last year’s playoff sweep.

As for Indiana, I believe the playoffs are about big time players making big time plays, and Paul George has come back this season and shown that he can be Indiana’s franchise player. I think he has a big series here as Indiana scores the upset.

Pacers in 6

#3 Miami Heat (48-34) vs. #6 Charlotte Hornets (48-34)

heathornets

I think Miami from top to bottom is just a better team than Charlotte. Kemba Walker’s emergence has bene impressive and Charlotte has a lot of role players who’ve played well this season. But when it comes down to a close game and someone needs to make some big shots, I’ll take a past his prime Dwyane Wade any day. Heck, I’d even take Goran Dragic. Championship players like Wade usually find ways to get some playoff wins. Think Paul Pierce in Brooklyn a couple years ago (or even last year with Washington).

Unless LINSANITY strikes…of course.

Heat in 7

#4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34) vs. #5 Boston Celtics (48-34)

hawksceltics

The Hawks are a veteran team that peaked last year. None of their guys have really stepped up from last year and it feels like the entire team regressed. They kind of feel like they are here by default.

Boston’s been an exciting team ever since they got Isaiah Thomas in the middle of last year. Hell, if they didn’t run into LeBron last year I think they could have won a playoff series. Boston is 69-38 since they got Thomas. Brad Stevens also has done an amazing job coaching Boston. I think the Celtics want this one more.

Celtics in 6

 

Basketball

RDT’s 2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

We’ve just completed one of the better seasons in NBA storylines. For the first time in what seems like a while, the NBA Playoffs are moderately unpredictable. There are two teams in the East with a realistic chance of making the Finals, then any one of five (sorry Portland) can do the same. I could even think of conceivable longshot scenarios for the remaining three teams in the West. We’ve had MVP caliber seasons from four different players (Westbrook, Harden, Curry and Davis), and a semi-MVP season (from LeBron). It’s going to be a fun playoffs and we’re just going to dive into round 1 here.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)

It’s really hard to make the case for the Pelicans here. Let’s try. Anthony Davis is ridiculous. Anthony Davis is incredible. Anthony Davis is a once in a lifetime talent. Anthony Davis carried a team with three inefficient overrated players (Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday) to the 8th seed in a loaded Western Conference. And his team beat out a team with the possessed Russell Westbrook to get that spot. It’s quite impressive. Davis just put up a PER that’s only been surpassed by Wilt, Jordan and LeBron. Unfortunately, because of his supporting cast he may just be in a similar situation as David Robinson in the early-90s.

The Warriors are too deep and too good at everything. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson just destroyed the league from the guard positions. Curry, the likely MVP of the league, was the only player this season to boast a WS/48 that was higher than Davis’ this year. The Warriors are also the best defensive team in the league, thanks to Andrew Bogut (fun fact: I knew right there that Bogut for Monta Ellis a few seasons ago was an absolutely steal for the Warriors) and Draymond Green. The Warriors are so good they willing bench David Lee, someone who could still be a 17-9 guy in the league. Then there is this gem from Bill Simmons: The Warriors are one of seven teams to have a .800 winning percentage and a points differential of plus-10. The other six? ’71 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92 Bulls, ’96 Bulls, ’97 Bulls and ’08 Celtics. Two points to note from that. One: That’s three Michael Jordan teams, which is ridiculous. And two: all six of those teams won the title. All of them. It’s going to be hard to not pick the Warriors here.

Davis is worth a win with some crazy 35-17-6-3-3 game or something. But Golden State just isn’t losing here.

Warriors in 5

#2 Houston Rockets (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

A very interesting match-up that is a lot closer than it seems.

There are some interesting parallels here. Both the Rockets and Mavericks made controversial mid-season moves, and neither really worked out. Rajon Rondo has feuded with Rick Carlisle and hasn’t fit in with Monta Ellis in the Dallas Mavericks. Josh Smith brought his normal inefficient offense to Houston and didn’t provide the help the injured Dwight Howard and James Harden needed. Both teams have a defensive monster at center…Howard for Houston and Tyson Chandler for Dallas, although one of those isn’t as good as he once was. Both Carlisle and Kevin McHale, the two head coaches, were Celtics. Both teams are from Texas. Ok I’m nitpicking now.

Here’s the thing. The James Harden-led Rockets have yet to win a playoff series. The main pieces of the Mavericks: Carlisle as a coach, Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler have all won the title before, and three of those did it in Dallas. Dallas proved to be a tough out (the only one) last year against San Antonio because they have guys who knows that it takes to get the job done in the playoffs.

When you really look at it, how do the Rockets win this series? They are virtually a one man offensive team. The Mavericks are built to stop those types of teams with Chandler in the middle. Dallas played Houston very tough this season as well: Houston won on the road by 7 and at home by 5 and 3. Dallas won one game in Dallas by 11. If Nowitzki gets into his prime form, and Ellis doesn’t shoot them out of games, I don’t know if Houston can contain Dallas.

The problem is Nowitzki regress enough this season to cause concern about taking over a playoff series. I don’t believe in Monta Ellis, and I still don’t see the Rondo fit. Chandler will cause all kinds of problems for Harden, but I don’t think Dallas will be able to pull it out. If this was last year’s Nowitzki, I’d pick them.

Rockets in 7.

#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26) vs. #6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Poor Chris Paul. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this script before. Gregg Popovich just knows how to create defensive schemes that limit Paul. In 2008 the Spurs beat Paul’s great Hornets team in a New Orleans. In 2012 the Spurs swept Paul’s Clippers. This is one of those I need to see it happen situations before I can take the Clippers.

The other part of this equation: the Spurs are basketball’s best team this last one-eighth of the season. The ageless Tim Duncan has been on top of his game. Kawhi Leonard is an elite defender…basically the new age Bruce Bowen only with a crazy offensive game to go with it…and perhaps a top 20 player in the league right now. Tony Parker is peaking. Everything is going right for the Spurs.

Maybe this is poor analysis, but I need to see it from the Clippers before I pick them against San Antonio. Great Chris Paul and Blake Griffin seasons be damned.

Spurs in 6

#4 Portland Trail Blazers (51-31) vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

Portland just hasn’t been the same since LaMarcus Aldridge hurt his hand and Wes Mathews was out for the season. Portland is merely 19-19 in their last 38 games and only got the 4th seed due to the NBA’s weird seeding rules for division champs.

It doesn’t help Portland that the Grizzlies are one of the toughest defense teams out there. Marc Gasol is a former defensive player of the year, Tony Allen is always a threat to win the award and Mike Conley is as tough as he comes. There’s the general overall toughness of Zach Randolph too.

Portland is just trending downward. Memphis is just a tough team to beat and Portland’s injuries just makes this way too tough. Damian Lillard needs to have the series of his life for Portland to have chance here. Memphis has home court too, although that won’t even come into play here.

Grizzles in 4.

Eastern Conference

#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22) vs. #8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)

The Nets are the sneaky hot team that might get some “upset special” calls. I thought that a bit too, but then that meant I was relying on Deron Williams (washed up at 30 apparently, overrated to begin with), Joe Johnson (anyone notice the Hawks have had a great run since Johnson left them?) and Brook Lopez (always a threat to go back to a good offensive player who somehow can’t rebound despite being 7 foot). The Nets are the 2004 New York Knicks. Congrats.

I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, and I think they may be one of the worst 60 win teams ever, but I can get into that when they are playing the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Until then, let’s just go with the obvious and take the Hawks here.

Hawks in 4.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29) vs. #7 Boston Celtics (40-42)

Another easy call here. The Celtics have been super hot and 29-12 in the last half of the season. Isaiah Thomas has been a key asset and the Celtics are just gelling. Brad Stevens has proven to be a great coach.

The Cavs started 19-20. They are 34-10 since. LeBron is in near peak form, which really might be better than anyone else in the league still. Kyrie Irving has improved leaps and bounds. Kevin Love, while not at the level he once was, actually had a good season that no one realizes. Mozgov, Shumpert and JR have been great pieces.

I’ll give Boston one because Thomas might have a nice 30 pointer in there. But…yeah, not yet Boston. Not yet.

Cavs in 5

#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32) vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)

Jason Kidd deserves something for bringing the Bucks to the playoffs. But I mean, this should be as obvious as the other two series we’ve covered so far.

Sure the Bucks will play it tough. But they just don’t have the talent. Michael-Carter Williams is a fun…but probably bad player. Is The Greak Freak ready to have the series of his life? Even so, that may not be enough.

I expect the Bulls to really be tough this year. Pau Gasol provides that Championship experience. Mirotic is a great bench piece. Jimmy Butler is the best player on this team and is probably the front runner for Most Improved Player of the Year. The Bulls don’t need the old Derrick Rose to beat these Bucks.

Bulls in 5

#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33) vs. #5 Washington Wizards (46-36)

Paul Pierce gets to face the Raptors again in round 1!

No one outside of Toronto or Washington cares about this series. The Raptors are 12-16 in their last 28. The Wizards are 13-15 in their last 28. Not inspiring here. John Wall went from fun young player to overrated (as did Bradley Beal, really). Kyle Lowry went from underrated to irrelevant. For DeMar DeRozan, see Beal. The only player I really trust on either of these teams is Paul Pierce, which is pretty telling (I actually like Jonas as well for Toronto, so I’m lying here).

I’ll pick the Wizards though, because they have some playoff experience under their belt…they almost made the Conference Finals last year afterall…and Paul Pierce is the type of veteran that can help here. The Wizards are the best of the rest of the East (outside of the top 3), but that doesn’t mean they are any good. To be honest, it doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with.

But I need a reason to believe in Toronto and I don’t have one. At least I have one with Washington.

Wizards in 6