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Basketball

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions!

Note: I wrote in my First Round Predictions on Twitter before any of the games began. This will become especially important when you get to Raptors-Pacers.

What a crazy NBA season. We’ve got one historic team (Golden State), one team that would be historic if it weren’t for Golden State (San Antonio), LeBron leading a dysfunctional Cavs team to 57 wins and a #1 seed, Kobe’s crazy last game and two teams with bonafide stars that everyone’s counting out (and arguably rightfully so) because of the Warriors and Spurs (Thunder and Clippers). Can you imagine counting out a team with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and being completely justified in doing so? Madness right? At least it should make predicting the playoffs easier.

Western Conference

#1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #8 Houston Rockets (41-41)

warriorsrockets

Houston is the NBA’s second biggest disappointment, but the only one that’s indefensible. While their main acquisition didn’t work out in Ty Lawson, the Rockets should have still been in contention for a position somewhere in the 3rd-5th seed range. And it’s embarrassing why they aren’t there. Dwight Howard just isn’t going to grow up I guess and the window of him being an elite difference maker are now long gone. He could still be a defensive force though. James Harden seemed one of the best stories in the league when he left Oklahoma City and became a star in Houston, but that good will is now gone as he’s acting like a superstar who’s yet to win anything. He’s an awful defensive player and a coach killer. What a shame all around.

Yeah, Golden State’s going to destroy them. I think one of the games will be close and the other three are double digit wins from the Warriors. Like Houston’s going to slow down Steph Curry.

Warriors in 4

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)

spursgrizzlies

The league has passed Memphis by. And no Marc Gasol is just a disaster for the Grizzlies. The Spurs have been the class of the NBA as long as they weren’t facing Golden State.

Isn’t it strange that the Western Conference is the least interesting one for once?

Spurs in 4

#3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (42-40)

thundermavericks

This may be a closer series than one would expect. While Oklahoma swept the season series 4-0, the Mavericks have been playing well, winning 7 of their last 9, to get into the playoffs. Normally I wouldn’t put much stock into that, I like how they’ve been able to win games without big games from Dirk Nowitzki. They’ve also won with a collection of some of the weakest rim protectors in recent memory (David Lee? Zaza? Nowitzki?). They also have one of the league’s best coaches in Rick Carlisle. And while he hasn’t been playing great or anything, if Dirk Nowitzki gets hot I can’t count Dallas out of anything. Nowitzki’s one of the best 15 players of all time and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

Of course, Oklahoma has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, which should render most arguments moot. Dallas’s best bet is to try to win shootouts against OKC because Durant and Westbrook are getting their points. It would help if Dallas could at least slow down Enes Kanter, as he’s had a pretty great season that’s flown under the radar.

To make the case for Dallas, just don’t forget what happened in the 2014 First Round when Dallas took San Antonio to 7 games. Sure it’s a weaker Dallas team, but I don’t like counting out elite legends and elite coaches.

Thunder in 6.

#4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-29) vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)

clippersblazers

Portland’s a fun story. Damian Lillard has become a real house of fire (and somehow wasn’t selected for the All-Star game) while C.J. McCollum has locked up the Most Improved Player Award with a surprising 20 PPG season. Fun team for sure.

Clippers are stacked. Yeah, there are some glaring chemistry and teammate issues with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, but this team is way too talented to lose to Portland here. I think Lillard steals a game or two though.

Clippers in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. #8 Detroit Pistons (44-38)

cavspistons

Congratulations to Detroit. They are the best 8th seeded Eastern Conference team by record in a long time, and would actually be the 5th seed in the West. Boy have times changed. Anyway, we could pick the reasons why the Clippers are going to beat Portland and insert them here. Yeah Cleveland has chemistry issues, but it’s not going to really matter. As a bonus, Reggie Jackson will struggle if guarded by Iman Shumpert, and Andre Drummond can get all the big 17-14 games he wants. LeBron’s too good.

Cavs in 5

#2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. #7 Indiana Pacers (45-37)

raptorspacers

My upset special of the playoffs. I was down on Toronto for the regular season and they made me eat my words there, but they don’t have a true superstar (Kyle Lowry?) and I’m not sold on Dwane Casey as a head coach. I think there are some lingering issues from last year’s playoff sweep.

As for Indiana, I believe the playoffs are about big time players making big time plays, and Paul George has come back this season and shown that he can be Indiana’s franchise player. I think he has a big series here as Indiana scores the upset.

Pacers in 6

#3 Miami Heat (48-34) vs. #6 Charlotte Hornets (48-34)

heathornets

I think Miami from top to bottom is just a better team than Charlotte. Kemba Walker’s emergence has bene impressive and Charlotte has a lot of role players who’ve played well this season. But when it comes down to a close game and someone needs to make some big shots, I’ll take a past his prime Dwyane Wade any day. Heck, I’d even take Goran Dragic. Championship players like Wade usually find ways to get some playoff wins. Think Paul Pierce in Brooklyn a couple years ago (or even last year with Washington).

Unless LINSANITY strikes…of course.

Heat in 7

#4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34) vs. #5 Boston Celtics (48-34)

hawksceltics

The Hawks are a veteran team that peaked last year. None of their guys have really stepped up from last year and it feels like the entire team regressed. They kind of feel like they are here by default.

Boston’s been an exciting team ever since they got Isaiah Thomas in the middle of last year. Hell, if they didn’t run into LeBron last year I think they could have won a playoff series. Boston is 69-38 since they got Thomas. Brad Stevens also has done an amazing job coaching Boston. I think the Celtics want this one more.

Celtics in 6

 

Basketball

It’s Time Chris Paul

For Chris Paul’s sake, the Los Angeles Clippers need to win tonight. Despite pretty much being the best point guard in the NBA ever since the moment he was drafted (ok, that’s a little much, but he’s always been top 3 in the position. Only Nash and Rose can say they were better at one point), CP3 has fallen short in the one (somewhat flawed) metric that seems to matter to everyone these days: winning. I had a conversation with someone who told me they thought John Wall was just as good as CP3 because they both went to Round 2. That’s nuts.

But there’s some merit to this as well. How much a player wins in a team game usually tells a story about that player. Did that player take over (see Jordan, Michael)? Did that player shut down an opposing key player (see Olajuwon, Hakeem) that swung a series? Or did that player provide the key leadership aspect that allowed the team to become something greater than their parts (see Garnett, Kevin or Duncan, Tim)? Or lastly, did a player take a team of clearly overmatches players (other than himself) and will them to something greater than expected (again, Jordan, Duncan, Olajuwon).

At one time Chris Paul fell into that last category. CP3’s performance in a six game loss to the Lakers in the 2011 playoffs was one of the best examples of a top player going against a team by himself (CP3’s supporting cast: Carl Landry, washed up Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Marco Belinelli, when your starting lineup looks like a decent bench, that’s a bad sign). CP3 otherwise always seemed to run into other top players: Durant and Westbrook’s Thunder last year (7 game loss), a determined Grizzlies team anchored by Marc Gasol in 2013. The Spurs got a sweep in 2012. The Kobe Lakers in 2011. The last great Chauncey Billups year and Carmelo’s best playoff year in 2009…and then 2008.

2008. CP3 submits the perhaps greatest PG season ever, gets robbed of the MVP and takes care of business in round 1, pretty much establishing that Jason Kidd and the Mavericks were yesterday’s news. Paul’s supporting cast is a solid David West, a great two way player in Tyson Chandler (yes, even then Chandler was a crazy efficient offensive player), and washed up but still good shooting Peja. The Hornets went toe to toe with the Spurs, who were looking to defend their NBA Title. The Spurs, with one of the best defensive players of all time anchoring the middle, had no answer for Paul. Game 1: 17-13, Game 2: 30-12, Game 3: 35-9, Game 4: 23-6-5, Game 5: 22-14, Game 6: 21-6-8. That being said, it was only good enough for 3 wins.

It came down to Game 7 in New Orleans…and the Spurs prevailed. Paul played well of course, but it wasn’t enough. But hey, he was only 22 years old. There was more than enough time. This was in 2008.

It’s 2015 now. It’s Game 7. We’re on CP3’s home court again. It’s against The Spurs. It’s against Duncan, Parker, Manu, Pop (and now featuring Kawhi). He’s 29. It’s time CP3.

 

Basketball

NBA “Midseason” Award Winners

               It’s the main event of NBA’s unofficial midseason: the All-Star Game. All-Star Weekend itself often has tons of storylines. For example, who were the biggest snubs? At first it looked like it would be Damian Lillard and DeMarcus Cousins, but both for in due to injuries from other players. After Dirk Nowitzki (who is still having a good season, but has slipped a bit) got in, my thought now is that DeAndre Jordan is actually the biggest snub left. He’s been having a Tyson Chandler like season, only he’s a much better rebounder than Chandler ever was. His presence in the middle really might make a difference in April…unless these first 54 games from him was just a fluke. Other storylines involved a stacked three point contest (won by Stephen Curry) and Zach LaVine leaving Dr. J’s jaw on the ground after one of his dunks. It’s been a fun All-Star Weekend for sure.

               Now that we’re at the “midseason”, it’s time to see who our front runners are for the regular season awards.

Most Improved Player

Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose
Butler has led the Bulls without an elite Derrick Rose

Jimmy Butler, SF Bulls

               Normally I’d be all “of course it’s Jimmy Butler, who else could it be?!”, but Klay Thompson could easily win this award as well. I have to give the edge to Butler though, because this season he’s shown to be someone we didn’t know he could be. We knew Thompson was a very good shooter at least. I mean the Warriors wouldn’t part ways with him for Kevin Love (a genius move, I was sure wrong about that one) and he and Curry already had the “Splash Bros.” nickname going. But we already knew Thompson was good. Yes he’s even a better shooter than we thought, and yes he’s improved on defense quite a bit. And yes, he did score 37 points in one quarter.

               But what did we really think of Butler before this season? He was an okay to good (depending on the night) wing that wasn’t a difference maker of any kind. The Bulls spent all summer trying to land Carmelo Anthony. Butler shot under 40% last season with 13 PPG and 5 RPG. Not really inspiring stuff. He had a PER of 13.5 (below average), a WS48 of .131 (solid rotation guy) and an offensive rating of 108 on 17% usage (good roleplayer). This year? 46% shooting, 20.4 PPG, 6 RPG, PER of 21.3, 123 ORtg on 21.5% usage. Those are some crazy jumps. He’s doing all this without an effective Derrick Rose no less. And Bulls fans don’t really seem to be talking about Carmelo anymore.

Sixth Man of the Year

Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East
Lou has helped the Raptors stay near the top of the East

Lou Williams, SG, Raptors

This comes down to three players for me so far. Williams, Jamal Crawford and Isaiah Thomas. I should probably rule out Crawford as this has been his worst LA Clipper year so far. He’s not quite the offensive sparkplug he was even last year, and if he’s not going to be a very good offensive guy then his horrid defense becomes a bigger problem. I’m in on Williams as he’s been part of a team that hasn’t had any chemistry problems since adding him and Toronto’s been near the top of the East for the entire year. Thomas and Williams are pretty close to the same player statwise (Thomas has a small edge), but trade rumors have been abundant in Phoenix ever since the idea of playing three guards came about. Sure, Goran Dragic’s contract is up soon, but you don’t see the Suns actively trying to keep him either.

Rookie of the Year

Wiggins looks like the real deal
Wiggins looks like the real deal

Andrew Wiggins, SG, Timberwolves

He started slow…played Cleveland in December and caught fire ever since. Since that game against Cleveland on 12/23, he’s averaged 18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.5 APG and only 1.9 TPG on nearly 47% shooting. And he didn’t have Ricky Rubio for most of it. That’s….pretty good. Once Jabari Parker went down all Wiggins had to do was play well to win the award…and he has.

Defensive Player of the Year

Green has led the best defense in the NBA
Green has led the best defense in the NBA

Draymond Green, SF, Warriors

It’s not every day that a swingman has the lowest defensive rating in the league, but when one does it would be pretty hard for him not to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Warriors boast the best defensive team in basketball despite playing in the loaded West with an offensive first point guard in a point guard heavy league. Green manages to guard three different spots on the court effectively. Paul Millsap would be my 2nd choice here, followed by Anthony Davis.

Coach of the Year

No one had the Hawks at 43-11
No one had the Hawks at 43-11

Mike Budenholzer, Hawks

Yeah, I don’t even think the city of Atlanta had the Hawks winning 43 games by the All-Star break. In fact, 43 games total was a realistic total. Another Gregg Popovich assistant of course. Budenholzer has some competition though. Steve Kerr of course deserves credit for taking the Warriors to the next level, and Jason Kidd went from the ousted laughing stock rookie head coach of the Nets to somehow having the Bucks…without Jabari Parker…in the midst of the playoffs.

               Still though, the Hawks are 43-11. What?

Most Valuable Player

Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with
Harden is doing as well as Curry without a lot less to work with

James Harden, SG, Rockets

There are four cases to make for the MVP this season so far: Harden, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Let’s start with Curry, as to be him and Harden are 1a and 1b here. Curry has obviously been stupid good this seas. He’s shooting lights out (48-40-90%), he’s distributing the ball (7.9 APG), he’s leading the league in steals (2.2). He has a great MVP level WS/48 this season (.283, tied for the 18th highest in the 3 point shooting era with Shaq’s 2000 season). He’s on the best team in the toughest conference. So why didn’t I pick him? Harden’s close to him in most of these #s, better in some advanced metrics and is clearly working with a hell of a lot less. Curry has Thompson, Green, even Kerr as a coach. Harden has a banged up Dwight Howard who isn’t Dwight Howard anymore, Josh Smith who even when he is Josh Smith it’s not guaranteed it’s a good thing.

LeBron’s case seems dubious as this is arguably his worst season since his rookie year. But then you see the following:

Cavs With LeBron: 31-14

Cavs Without LeBron: 2-8

               That’s a big difference. I won’t count him out as if he has a monster last 27 games where the Cavs win 22 or 23 of them, voters will notice and forget about November and December.

               Anthony Davis’s case is insane. Despite what we mentioned about Curry’s WS/48…Davis actually has a higher one of .291 right now. That would be good for 12th in the 3 Point era. Only players above him? Lebron (’13, ’09, ’10, ’12), Jordan (’91, ’96, ’88, ’89), David Robinson (’94), Durant (’14), and Chris Paul (’09). That’s the list. It’s interesting to look at Robinson when thinking about Davis here. He too put up a lot of “holy shit” stats. But he only brought home one MVP as his teams were never really the best. In this case, the 27-26 Pelicans have to be better for Davis to win the MVP. Even if he has a record breaking PER. Yeah, it’s amazing that a team with Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon (three black hole All-Stars for sure) as their 2, 3 and 4 scorers is even remotely in the Western Conference playoff hunt. But that’s not enough.

               So James Harden. He too has a ridiculous WS/48 (.275). He actually has the highest offensive win shares of anyone in the league. He’s carrying this Rockets team. Dwight Howard isn’t a great player anymore. He’s on a team where only two guys have higher than a 16 PER (him and Howard). Yet this team is 36-17. He’s leading the league in scoring. He’s averaging a 27-6-7 with 2 steals a game. He is your MVP.