Tag Archives: Tom Brady

Football

Super Bowl LI Prediction

We’re 5-5 heading into Super Bowl 51. This game means everything in regards to finishing with a over .500 record!

This also may go down as one of the all-time great Super Bowls…

Super Bowl 51: Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)

There are so many different directions this game could go in.

Elite offense vs. elite offense. Hungry first timers against a team that’s made seven of the last sixteen Superbowls with the same Head Coach/QB combo. Battle of MVP candidate QBs. New England’s D vs. an unstoppable WR.

Here’s what matters. The Matt Ryan led Atlanta Falcons are unstoppable on offense. No matter what double teams New England throws at Julio Jones he’s going to get his catches and his yards. That, combined with the Falcons running game combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman means the Falcons are getting their points when they have the ball.

But that’s the key. They need to have the ball. In a similar strategy that I thought Dallas would beat Green Bay with, New England can run the ball down the weak (we’ll get to that in a second) Falcons run defense and keep Atlanta off the field. And guess what, Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to score their points too. The Falcons defense has improved according to DVOA over the second half of the regular season, but it isn’t elite. They did bottle up Aaron Rodgers last week though. The run defense ranked dead last in DVOA though (for all you gambling people out there, LaGarrette Blount is a sneaky Super Bowl MVP candidate), and that’s going to be tough to overcome. Also, if you just consider Tom Brady’s 12 games in the regular season, New England’s offense was ranked above Atlanta’s.

I’ll make the call that this becomes the first ever Super Bowl that goes to overtime. But after making the mistake last week, I won’t pick against the Patriots in this situation.

Patriots 35, Falcons 32 (OT)

Football

2017 Conference Title Game Predictions

3-1 last week puts me at 5-3 for this playoffs. (20-10 all-time). Look at that, I didn’t believe in Aaron Rodgers again.

Green Bay Packers (12-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (12-5)

And I’m not quite sure I’m picking him here either. I was happy to see the Falcons live up to what I said last week about their game against the Seahawks. Matt Ryan and Co. have been disappointing for years now, but their amazing offense has felt like the real deal.

There are a lot of factors in play here. This is the last game in the Georgia Dome and you know the crowd will be insane. Matt Ryan has faced many playoff disappointments, so he’s hungry for a Super Bowl run. Atlanta’s offense was historically good, and it’s not like Green Bay is known for their defense. The Falcons beat the Pack by 1 back in the middle of the season, 33-32, winning the game in the last minute. Both Ryan and Rodgers were amazing in that game. We know Jordy Nelson is injured too, which hurts the Green Bay offense. Everything points to a shootout here, where the superior Atlanta firepower wins out.

But I really don’t want to pick against Aaron Rodgers again. I really don’t. He’s playing at an insane level right now. That whole narrative about him being a bad leader? Well, that’s went to hell. I can’t help but feels he’s going to pull this one out. It’ll be close, but whoever gets the ball last in this close one with at least 30 seconds left is probably going to win it, and if I had to pick a QB in this matchup it’s Rodgers

Packers 38, Falcons 35

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) @ New England Patriots (15-2)

Fun fact: when picking the Steelers last week, a big reason I came to that decision, other than the history of the Kansas City Chiefs choking away pretty much every important game with a coach who historically does poorly in the playoffs, is that I actually felt that the they are the best team in the AFC.

Let’s look at the Patriots. They had five games against playoff teams in the regular season: the Dolphins twice (won both), the Steelers (with Landry Jones at QB, a W) , the Texans (beat them 27-0, but lol Texans) and the Seahawks (loss). They also had wins over decent teams like the Ravens and Broncos. But I wouldn’t call their schedule remotely tough. So that 14-2 is a bit inflated. Despite the big record, I don’t feel super confident about the Patriots week in and week out. I guess I can’t completely explain this, but even the Texans hung around a little last week. Something feels off here.

Pittsburgh is hot. They’ve won nine straight. Their last loss was a close one against a really good Dallas Cowboy team. Le’Veon Bell is a monster. Roethlisberger is mostly playing well. They just beat the Chiefs again in Kansas City. Their defense has improved as the season progressed. This is a team that’s been there before.

Something just smells like upset.

Steelers 24, Patriots 21

Football

2016 NFL Conference Finals Predictions!

We went 3-1 last week as all the home team pulled it out (after all the road teams won the Wildcard Round). We’re 5-3 for the playoffs. I think both of these are relatively east selections so let’s get to it.

New England Patriots (13-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-4)

Look, Denver was losing to a beaten up Pittsburgh Steelers team before Fitzgerald Tousaaint fumbled and Denver finally put a TD drive together. This Patriots team (which is healthy, no less) is way better than that beaten up Steelers team. Blame whoever you want or whatever, Peyton Manning’s arm, Bronco WRs dropping passes, New England is the better team and should be able to avenge their loss to Denver in the regular season.

Patriots 24, Broncos 13

Arizona Cardinals (14-3) @ Carolina Panthers (16-1)

I think the weather plays a big factor here. It’s going to be freezing a day after a lot of snow. Carolina proved they were no fluke as they horsewhipped Seattle in the first half last week (before going into the deep freeze in the 2nd half). Arizona was disappointing last week as they barely survived Green Bay at home. The Panthers are the best team in football and after watching last week I don’t see the Cardinals, great as they seem, beating the Panthers in Carolina in a cold weather game.

Panthers 31, Cardinals 21

 

 

Football

Super Bowl XLIX Prediction

super-bowl-xlix

We are now 9-1 for the playoffs (you know, the Steelers are my only loss here AND knocked me out of my Survivor pool earlier this season, shrug) with a chance for double digits! Personally, I dislike both teams for a multitude of reasons. New England because I’m a Jets fans and their two Giants Super Bowl wins made us Jets fans even feel worse. The Seahawks because of Pete Carroll, and their rumored P.E.D. use over the years. New England has had their big “cheating” scandal as well over the past two weeks with “Deflategate”. To be honest, it’s been overblown. Is it really shocking that the Patriots pushed the limits with the rules once again? The only thing that really made me wonder was the fumble data analysis. I’m not really here to write about the cheating scandals though…that can be for another entry. I don’t like either of these teams so all bias is out the window. Let’s get to win #10.

New England Patriots (14-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-4)

My gut and betting lines seem to be favoring New England just a little bit. I assume this is because of their dominance over Indianapolis while Seattle had to pull off a comeback of epic proportions. If Packer coach Mike McCarthy knew what he was doing Green Bay would have won…and probably would have won easily. But he doesn’t and they didn’t. The thing is, we aren’t getting a horrible Russell Wilson game like that again. If anything, last week’s comeback was the kick in the ass Seattle needed.

Whether or not Seattle is as good as last year, I still think they are better than everyone else and it’s not as close as people think. Yes Green Bay took them to the limit, but think about it. Seattle turned the ball over five times and STILL managed to win the game. Russell Wilson had the worst three quarters of his career, and still Seattle found a way to win.

Interestingly, this Super Bowl is also a battle between teams with many eff-U edges. Marshawn Lynch is trying to prove that all the talk that Seattle may release him at the end of the season is ridiculous (he’s succeeded). Discussions after Week 4 centered around Tom Brady being benched for a 2nd rounder (Jimmy Garoppolo). New England has faced this “Deflategate” debacle. Richard Sherman always has a chip on his shoulder. I could go on and on here. Everyone has something to prove.

It comes down to this though. Seattle can stop 37 year old Tom Brady.

I don’t think New England can stop Marshawn Lynch.

Seahawks 29, Patriots 17

Football

NFL 2014-2015 Wildcard Predictions

NFL Wildcard weekend is upon us. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Your NFC South Division “winners”, the Panthers, have not lost in December after a seven game non-winning streak (six losses and one tie). They’ve only beaten one team with a winning record (Detroit), and that was week 2. While they’re obviously hot, it’s not like they beat the cream of the crop in these last four weeks. It is impressive though that they beat both New Orleans and Atlanta on the road by a combined score of 75-13.

Yet the Panthers are big favorites over the Cardinals. The Cards have been lost after losing QB Carson Palmer for a second time this season…and for the remainder of the season. While Drew Stanton filled in at least respectably, he went down as well and left the Cardinals with Ryan Lindley. To give you a perspective on Lindley’s career, it took him to his sixth NFL Start to throw his first touchdown pass. He had seven interceptions already. Even tossing his first two TD scores wasn’t enough to lead the Cardinals past the downtrodden 49ers in week 17.

Look, the Cardinals have a much better defense, a better coach (Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera for sure) and really probably a better everything else, but this quarterback situation is brutal. There were stories that the Cards were calling Kurt Warner to play for him. Kurt Warner! He hasn’t played in five years! And anytime your QB is so bad that your fans are clamoring for the return of Drew Stanton…you aren’t winning a playoff game. It’s a shame for the Cardinals season for sure, but that’s just the way it goes.

For anyone who thinks a losing team can’t win a playoff game, history is actually on Carolina’s side here. The 2010-2011 Seahawks won their division at 7-9 and then beat New Orleans 41-36.

Panthers 17, Cardinals 9

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) 

Pittsburgh won the tight AFC North Division, a division that seemed to be going Cincinnati’s way all season long. Unlike the Panthers, who won all December games over subpar competition, the Steelers won all their December games against good competition, beating the Bengals twice and the 9-7 Chiefs as well. At one point the entire AFC North was close and it looked as if any of the four teams could win the division, but the Steelers won all their key games down the stretch, including a huge victory over the Ravens on November 2nd

The Ravens though, were no slouches toward the end of the season either, winning five of their last seven. They got a random career year out of running back Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco had what can arguably be considered his best career regular season. The Ravens also had top 10 offenses and defenses per DVOA, which shows a solid balance. John Harbaugh has this Ravens teams going for sure. A bonus too is that the Steelers will be without their star back Le’Veon Bell.

So why am I not sold on Baltimore? Well of their ten victories, they won one game against a team with a winning record, which was Pittsburgh in Baltimore during week 2. After that? They beat Cleveland at Cleveland, Carolina, the Bucs, the Falcons, the Titans, New Orleans, Miami, the Jaguars and finally Cleveland again. All of their losses came against teams with winning records. Not inspiring to say the least.

Ben Roethlisberger has also posted a career near 5K yard year. I don’t think he’s going down in one playoff game after that.

Steelers 24, Ravens 13

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

I could probably just write Andrew Luck vs. Andy Dalton and be done with it…but football doesn’t really work that way.

To be honest though, my confidence in each of these two QBs is what makes the result easy to determine. I mean, you watched last year’s playoffs right? Andrew Luck willed his team back from a 38-10 deficient to beat the Chiefs. The Bengals meanwhile got beat at home against the Chargers 10-27.

This year? The Colts are clearly one level below the elite, beating Baltimore, Texans and even the Bengals, but also had all five losses come against top teams (Denver, pre-Sanchez Philly, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas). The Bengals even recently had a victory over Denver, but that’s amidst a lot of questions about Peyton Manning. The Bengals had a chance to lock up the division last week and in typical Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengal fashion, they lost.

I just can’t not take a team quarterbacked by Andrew Luck here…in Indy no loss.

Colts 31, Bengals 10

Detroit Lions (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Two long suffering franchises (in Detroit’s case, very long) that have a chance to make a run in the NFC. This is Dallas’ best crack at a Superbowl appearance since they blew the 2008 NFC Divisional game to the Giants. As for Detroit, well, this is their first real chance since Barry.

I’m not sure what to make of this Lions team to be honest. If I told you before the season that your new coach would be Jim Caldwell and your megastar receiver, Calvin Johnson, would have an off year, would you think you would be 11-5 and heading to the playoffs? Of course not. So what’s changed? Well, Detroit suddenly has one of the best defensive units in football, and the best rushing one at that per DVOA. And with Ndamukong Suh leading the way and appealing his one game suspension, that defense is going to be the key to victory for Detroit.

On the opposite Dallas has the best rusher in football: DeMarco Murray. Tony Romo has put together his best season in what feels to be a last gasp to repair his reputation and prove he is in fact one of football’s best QBs. Overall I think this Cowboys team is just too good from top to bottom to lose to Detroit. It doesn’t help that Detroit still feels like an undisciplined team after Suh stepped on Aaron Rodgers.

The Cowboys have had some convincing wins this season and I’ll be surprised to see Detroit be the one to end it just like that.

Cowboys 23, Lions 16