Went 3-1 last week. That Ravens-Steelers game was always going to be the toughest to call.

Anyway, Divisional Round, let’s do it!

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

The Ravens won a frigid game in Pittsburgh where they shut down the Steeler run game (that was missing La’Veon Bell) and had Joe Flacco continue his run as one of the best postseason quarterbacks of all time (how crazy does that sound?)

Does that mean they are beating New England? Maybe…

The Patriots and Ravens have arguably been the two most successful NFL franchises of the past 15 years. The first notable battle between the two though actually took place during the regular season of the Patriots perfect run. The Ravens got close to being the only team to beat the Patriots during that regular season. Two years later the Ravens shocked the Patriots in Foxboro by beating up Tom Brady and having Ray Rice run all over them. If you told me the Bill Belichick-Brady era was over right there I would have believed you. That’s how bad it looked. Two years after that the Patriots and Ravens met again in the AFC Title game, where a missed field goal made the difference for New England. The very next year they met in the AFC Title game again, but this time took care of business and won the Super Bowl a couple of weeks afterwards.

You’ve got two of the best (if not the best) coaches in the NFL in Belichick and John Harbaugh. A surefire Hall of Fame Quarterback in Brady against one of the best playoff QBs there is in Flacco. And you have two teams that have a genuine rivalry going at it once again. It’s going to be a tough game of course, and it will help the Ravens that the weather will just be like it was in Pittsburgh last week.

Forget all the stats though. I think a fire was lit under New England’s ass this season after week 4. I think something happened to Belichick when he got asked if Tom Brady was going to be benched. I think something got to Brady. I don’t see this Patriots team going quietly. That and this is the best Patriots D we’ve seen in some time as well. Close as always, but I can’t help but feel New England is out for blood.

Patriots 24, Ravens 17

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

This is going to be short.

Don’t let the midseason distractions fool you. The Seahawks are still football’s best team. They were absolutely rolling at the end of the season. Once in their last six games did a team manage to score double digits against them (Eagles, 14). The Seahawks also have some wins against legitimately good teams: they beat Green Bay and Denver early on. They had a top 10 ranked offense and the best defense in football by traditional means. DVOA wise, they were top 5 in both. Seattle is the team to beat. Period.

The Panthers didn’t even look that great last week. Somehow the Ryan Lindley led Cardinals actually hung in the game for a while, even though they were led by Ryan Lindley. The Panthers are an okay team. Seattle is a great team.

I think Seattle wants to make a statement too.

Seahawks 45, Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) @ Green Bay Packers (12-4)

One of the more interesting statistics here: Dallas was 8-0 on the road this season, Green Bay was 8-0 at home.

I wrote last week that this is Dallas’ best team in years due to some convincing wins and overall great play from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Officiating controversies aside, I thought it was impressive Dallas won last week against Detroit with Murray being held to 75 yards and a 3.75 average.

The thing is, Green Bay is just better than Detroit. Aaron Rodgers might have locked up a MVP award this season and his gutsy performance against Detroit in Week 17 just showed he’s at the top of his game. Overall the Packers are better offensively and defensively than Dallas, although neither has a particularly strong defense. Could Dallas rack up some points on Green Bay? Sure. But I think there’s a better chance Green Bay racks up points on the Cowboys.

Here’s what Dallas needs to bank on. Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury stemming from the game against Detroit in Week 17. It’s a cold weather game, which won’t help Rodgers. If Dallas can get to Rodgers, they may be able to turn this one in their favor. On their side, Murray needs to run the ball right through Green Bay’s defense. And Tony Romo just can’t make any big mistakes.

This would be a good game plan…but I think Aaron Rodgers is too tough to lose that way. Sure the calf is torn…but it was injured against Detroit too, right?

Packers 31, Cowboys 23

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ Denver Broncos (12-4) 

Come on, we all knew Andrew the Giant was taking care of business against the Bengals. There’s nothing else really to say about the Colts. I know football is a team sport, but if there was one guy in the NFL right now that is carrying his team it is Andrew Luck. I can’t imagine the Colts being a playoff team without Luck. They have by far the worst rushing attack in football. Their defense is suspect. And a lot of it doesn’t matter because of Luck.

The Colts got smacked in a similar Divisional Round game last year when Brady (and really, LaGarrett Blount) and the Patriots scored 43 and beat down the Colts before they had a chance to make anything happen. Same idea here right? The Colts are up against an aging but still great and legendary quarterback in Peyton Manning, and a running back that seemingly came out of nowhere in C.J. Anderson. The difference is that per DVOA, the Broncos were top 5 on both sides of the ball. Everything for this game points to Denver winning this one with ease.

But…

Well, what’s with Denver’s offense change? How are the Denver Broncos, with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time who was throwing 400 yard games with no problem earlier in the season, suddenly taking a rush first approach with C.J. Anderson? I understand that Anderson was looked nice…but what in the world? I think something’s wrong with Peyton. It might have just been a moment. We’ve all read the stories of his arm being weak. He’s 38 years old. He had serious neck surgery a few years ago. I can’t explain why the Broncos on offense are suddenly relying so much on C.J. Anderson. Maybe it was to rest Peyton. I don’t know. Combine this with the fact that Peyton Manning is one of the most inconsistent big game playoff QBs ever, and suddenly I think a real upset is in the making.

This is one of those perfect scenarios in sports. Peyton against his old team. His successor lighting the league up. I think we remember this game as the day Andrew Luck truly arrived and we know Peyton’s true best is behind him. Bold I know. But I think it’s time.

Colts 24, Broncos 21