Woo I made it before Game 1 tonight!
First question I have to ask, why the heck is Warriors-Rockets the first series starting? Cleveland and Atlanta were done for what seems like weeks ago. Why should Houston have to just come back in two days?
Anyway, I posted my predictions on Twitter again in case I was late, but I’m not late this time! Then Grantland’s Zach Lowe copied me! (Or has no idea what RDTWorldofSport is, I give it a 50-50 chance).
An interesting tidbit about these Conference Finals: while the NBA is the most anti-parity league in basketball (we have a #1 seed against a #2 on each side, for example) this is the first playoffs in what feels like forever where none of these four teams really felt like true Championship contenders before the season began, other than possibly Cleveland. LeBron’s return to the Cavs got them here, fine. But the Hawks? Where did that come from? The Rockets looked like a two man team without enough depth to make it far, and it looked like they were who we thought they were until Josh Smith decided to realize his potential ten years into his career for a quarter and a half and led the Rockets to a stunning Game 6 comeback. The Warriors were a fun team to pick, but fun usually means “really good team that gets beat by the Spurs in the playoffs”. Instead, Stephen Curry owned the league, Klay Thompson made the rumors he’d be traded for Kevin Love look foolish and Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green led a great defense to create the clear title favorite at this point. Just some crazy stuff.
Eastern Conference Finals
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers @ #1 Atlanta Hawks
How the Cavs got here: Well, they convinced LeBron to come home. They got pretty lucky with #1 Overall picks, hitting Kyrie Irving in 2012, missing on Anthony Bennett and nailing Andrew Wiggins. They sent Wiggins and Bennett to Minnesota for Love, and while Love actually had a good (not by his standards) season, it’s debatable whether that’s been a good idea long term. They also got Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert at the trade deadline, giving the Cavs decent depth. Obviously they key has been LeBron.
How the Hawks got here: To be honest, I have no idea. Kyle Korver was dealt to Atlanta a few years ago for cash. Paul Millsap had always been pretty underrated but a solid hand that Utah didn’t bother with and let walk. Al Horford was the #3 Overall pick right behind Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. Jeff Teague was another Hawks draft pick who upped his percentages enough to go from an average player at best to good player. DeMarre Carrol is a former late 1st round pick of Memphis who bounced around before finally finding a place in Atlanta.
The Hawks are probably the worst 60 win NBA team in the history of the league. Unsurprisingly, they fell apart down the stretch after a really hot start. Brooklyn was a mess themselves and yet put up a fight, Washington was a secretly a mess themselves, only Toronto was in worse shape so suddenly they looked a lot better than they were (I picked Atlanta in 4 there, but I wasn’t underrating Washington, I was overrating Atlanta). This a poor man’s Spurs’ team at best and I still have no reason to believe in them.
You know who I believe in? LeBron James. I’ve still yet to see a reason why a LeBron lead team won’t win the East. Sure, he’s not the LeBron of a few years ago, but he’s still the best player in the league. And he has enough weapons around him in Smith and Irving to make sure the Cavs can score enough. Yeah, the Hawks probably win Game 1 and go up 2-1, but we know the story by now.
Cavs in 6
Western Conference Finals
#2 Houston Rockets @ #1 Golden State Warriors
How the Rockets got here: Stockpiling assets and landing deals for stars! That’s how James Harden and Dwight Howard got here. Then, take a chance on some troubled stars, like Josh Smith. Then, some of your younger guys work out, like Terrence Jones, and you’re good! Remember, the Rockets got very little for the Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady departures, yet it hasn’t mattered one bit.
How the Warriors got here: Landed Stephen Curry #7 in the 2009 NBA Draft. PGs taken higher: Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio. The secretly great Andrew Bogut-Monta Ellis trade. Landing Klay Thompson at #11 in the 2011 NBA Draft, right after Jimmer Fredette and Kemba Walker were selected. Finding Draymond Green in the 2nd round in 2012.
The Rockets are obviously lucky to be here. After their shocking Game 6 victory that justified the Josh Smith signing and a solid Game 7 win, they now face a team that hasn’t slowed down one bit. The Warriors, unlike the Hawks, have decisively taken care of business in each of their two series thus far. The Pelicans bring Anthony Davis to take on the Warriors, no problem, Warriors sweep. Memphis gives Golden State a tough time early on, Coach Steve Kerr makes the adjustment regarding Tony Allen Golden State cruises to three straight victories.
There’s really no reason to think Golden State isn’t the far better team here. Can’t wait to see Jason Terry chase Curry around for 30 minutes a night. Patrick Beverly would have been a great help.
Harden probably gets one 10 for 28 with 20 free throw games made in their to steal one.
Warriors in 5